Sabana REIT: After the 4Q 2013 results, am I buying or selling?

Someone asked me why I didn't blog about Sabana REIT's latest results.

Answer?

There isn't much to say, really.

I did a piece on 17 October 2013 shortly after its 3Q results were released. In that blog post, there was a paragraph which said:

"Taking the DPU of 0.18c from 24 Sep to 30 Sep 13 as a guide, I estimate a DPU of 2.16c for 4Q 2013. This is a 10% reduction from 2.38c for 3Q 2013."

To find out how the estimate was made, read:
Sabana REIT: 3Q 2013 results and outlook.

Sabana REIT announced a DPU of 2.19c for 4Q 2013 which is 0.03c, some 1.38%, higher than my estimate. Not a good enough reason to bring out the lion dance troupe, perhaps, but at least it did not fall below my estimate.

The REIT is now trading at its NAV of $1.07 a unit and I would not be surprised if its unit price were to fall by a few cents upon the REIT going XD. Mr. Market is not feeling optimistic about REITs lately and Sabana REIT's performance has been disappointing.

Although it would be too optimistic to think that Sabana REIT could achieve 100% occupancy again in the near future from the current 91.2%, to think that there would be no improvement over the next 12 months would be too pessimistic.

So, if Mr. Market expects at least an 8.5% yield from Sabana REIT which is some 2% higher than what market leader Ascendas REIT gives, then, it would be reasonable to expect Sabana REIT to trade at $1.03 a unit upon going XD, annualising its current DPU.

Sabana REIT's unit price could recover in the course of the year if the management could fill up some of the vacant space and improve its DPU, everything else remaining equal.

So, although I do not see any compelling reason to add to my long position in Sabana REIT at current price, I will remain pragmatic. There is no compelling reason to reduce exposure too.

Related post:
Added more Croesus Retail Trust and reduced Sabana REIT.

A case of "Sorry No Cure" for Mr. Anton Casey?

I understand the need to have more foreigners in Singapore due to our declining birth rate. Learn from Japan's experience. Don't make the same mistake.

I accept that it is a necessity but I also expect that foreigners respect their host country and not cause trouble for us just like how we respect them and welcome them.

People will make mistakes and, generally, if they are sorry, we should give them another chance. However, if the "mistake" is not a mistake. Then, if we give them another chance, it will be a chance to make the same "mistake".

What is the difference between murder and manslaughter?

If we know the difference, then, we know what we should do in the case of Mr. Anton Casey.

The Straits Times:

British expatriate apologises for calling commuters 'poor people'.

Foreign media reports:

1. British expatriate mocks 'poor people' and called taxi driver 'retard'.

2. British businessman forced to issue an apology.

3. Death threats for British banker after calling 'commuters' poor.

Related post:
First large scale riot in Singapore in 40 years.