On 21 Nov 09, crude palm oil's (CPO's) price closed at RM2,419, up RM48 (2.02%), effectively breaking out of a 2 year down trendline which started after price peaked in early 2008 at RM4,330. This down trendline was tested twice earlier this year but not broken.
We are seeing this breakout translate into some strength in the price of CPO producers like Golden Agriculture. I believe that this is something that will continue into the new year and the Chinese New Year when CPO might retest its 2009 peak of RM2,790.
CPO price has been going up due to increased buying in Europe, India and China. The bad weather has caused production to decline marginally and inventory is being drawn down. Domestic demand in Indonesia remains strong. It is a daily necessity that doubles up as a biofuel.
I continue to believe in the future of Crude Oil and that will have a direct impact on the price of CPO. Darryl Guppy predicts that Crude Oil will hit US$100 after Christmas from a TA perspective. I have read elsewhere predictions of between US$85 to US$90 a barrel.
Golden Agriculture remains the cheapest CPO counter, no matter which parameter you use as a measurement. It is also the most levered to CPO price. I remain confident of its future in the next 12 months. This is one counter that I can foresee myself trading for the next 12 months
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