Fraud: Taking money from some adults is like taking candy from a baby.

If people promise us easy money, we should have to be very cautious. What is it about? How is it possible? Why is it so? Don't be a victim of fraud.

Just a few weeks ago, a client told me how he was given some physical gold for investing some money in a company. Apparently, the gold given to him was worth some 60% of the money he invested. In case the company went belly up, a new investor would only lose 40% of his capital.

The promised annual return was some 25% of the initial sum he invested, if I remember correctly. So, after holding for two years, an investor would be "safe" even if the company were to close down.

The person who got him involved in this "investment" was with him at the time and tried to get me to join them. After all, a consistent 25% annual return is a mind-boggling feat! Needless to say, I declined. Yup, I declined. It sounds too good to be true and probably is. This could be another OilPods or The Gold Label Pte. Ltd.

About OilPods: "More than 2,000 investors, mostly Singaporeans, were victims of this multi-million dollar Ponzi scheme, which involved purported investments in oil and gas. They were paid even before the oil was extracted, with existing investors receiving dividends from subscriptions of new investors." (The Business Times, 4 April 2012)

Another example of fraud has to do with land banking. In June 2010, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) issued a warning on Land Banking plots schemes warning they may be a scam with specific focus on companies offering land from the UK and Canada. (Source: Wikipedia)

A multi level marketing company, Sunshine Empire, was also in the news. The company had gathered up to S$189 million in funds through investment schemes, alleged to have never materialised and in fact a Ponzi scheme. Initial trial revealed that over S$115m were paid out as 'investment returns', while another S$40m were transferred to associates as 'interest free loans' and the remaining believed to have been expended or paid out to directors as fees. (Source: Wikipedia)

Unfortunately, there will always be people who would join the party. I dare say that a vast majority of the population is probably naive enough to believe in such "investments".

Money is hard to make and my heart always goes out to victims of fraud. Often, they are quite naive but hard working common people who just want a better return on their hard earned money.

I still remember how a female clerk in her 50s sent all her life savings of S$20,000, which, to her, was a princely sum, to an offshore investment firm after receiving a cold call promising her higher returns. She cried buckets later on.

Fraud: In criminal law, a fraud is an intentional deception made for personal gain or to damage another individual. (Source: Wikipedia)

Yes, it is a crime! 

Fraudsters should be put behind bars for life!

Control of non-renewable resources!

I was first introduced to the concept of non-renewable resources probably during my days as an "A" level student.  It was believed that crude oil would be depleted in 30 years back then.  Well, 20 years have gone by but it seems that we have more proven reserves of crude oil than ever before but it does not change the fact that it is still a non-renewable resource.

OPEC has 12 members and between them, they control 60% of the world's proven crude oil reserves and produce 40% of the world's oil currently. OPEC's importance cannot be underestimated although there are more non-OPEC oil producers since the 1980s.  This is because oil output by non-OPEC oil producers is likely to fall over the next decade.

Although the world is still very much dependent on oil for its energy needs, there are many alternatives to oil.  The increasing awareness of global warming and climate change issues has encouraged efforts to produce energy cleanly and sustainably.  These efforts would only intensify over time.  So, crude oil might be non-renewable but it is replaceable.

Today, in the papers, I learned that there are some other non-renewable resources which are controlled to a large extent by a single Asian country. I first learned of this only a few weeks ago. Some of you might already know what I am talking about: rare earth minerals.  A quick check on Wikipedia reveals that "the majority of rare earth minerals are mined in Asia, with China producing 93 percent of the world's supply, and more than 99 percent of the most valuable supply!"

In the recent case of Japanese authorities arresting a Chinese fisherman in disputed waters, the Chinese stopped the export of such rare earth minerals to Japan. Apparently, these rare earth minerals are so important in the production of many advanced products that the Japanese authorities bowed to pressure and released the fisherman.

The papers today reported that the Chinese seem to have halted the shipments of these rare earth minerals to the United States and Europe as well.  This is in response to the rising trade and currency tensions China has with the West.  How long would this embargo last?

It is also reported that the Chinese plan to further reduce their annual export quota for rare earth minerals from next year.  Mining almost all of the world's rare earth minerals, non-renewable resources which seem to have no viable alternatives at the current point in time, makes the Chinese a force as formidable as OPEC and possibly more.

Some views from Marc and Jim.

Marc Faber thinks that the Fed would embark on more quantitative easing (aka print more money) in September or October:



Jim Rogers says to buy silver as it is 70% below its all time high:



Jim Rogers also mentioned that sugar is a good investment because a lot of it is being used in the production of alternative fuel.  Now, with the US limiting offshore drilling for crude oil, shortages might develop and that could mean higher crude oil prices in future.  I would keep an eye on CPO price which has been recovering strongly lately.  That affects CPO counters like Golden Agriculture.

Related posts:
Gold or silver?
Why Golden Agriculture?

Golden Agriculture: Further divestment at 60c.

I hope Golden Agriculture made many happy today as the reversal signals seen a few days ago followed through nicely.  The price closed at 60c today, the previous high. My overnight sell queue at 60c was done towards the end of the day.

Looking at the chart, it is obvious that Golden Agriculture is firmly back in the uptrend channel.  Price action formed three wickless white candles in a row, reminiscent of a pattern which chart watchers call the Three White Soldiers and this pattern could signal more upside to come.

MFI rose above 50% convincingly, signalling positive buying momentum.  OBV continues to rise, signalling continuing accumulation.  The MACD has crossed the signal line in a bullish crossover.  All the momentum oscillators are bullish and also hint of more upside to come.

I have drawn some Fibo lines to determine the next resistance levels to watch in case of further upside.  I would like to draw your attention to 63.5c and 64.5c as these would be in closer proximity to the uptrend resistance in the course of the new week.  64.5c was also the closing and opening prices of the peak achieved in mid January on the 11th and 12th respectively.  This price would likely be fresh in the memories of market participants and would thus be a strong resistance.  I do not expect it to be taken out for now but I could be wrong.

Bugbear? Volume has not expanded in this latest move up in price and this suggests that we should not be too euphoric. I have put my remaining Golden Agriculture shares in the queue to sell in case its price hits the resistance levels I have identified in the preceding paragraph.

Certainly, from a fundamental perspective, the very strong showing by crude oil which is trading at almost US$85 a barrel as of now might have a spillover effect on crude palm oil and this would surely benefit Golden Agriculture.

Related posts:
Golden Agriculture: Reversal confirmed.
Golden Agriculture: Partial divestment at 57.5c.

Golden Agriculture and Saizen REIT

Golden Agriculture (50.5c): Unable to close above the 50dMA today at 52c is not a good sign.  Trade volume although not expanding very much remains significant.  The fact that the MFI is bordering on the oversold region provides little comfort as it could stay oversold for a while if sentiments remain bearish.  Once again, the critical support level at 50c is in focus.  Investors with long positions in this counter like myself would want to see this support level holding up.  Fundamentally, the prospects for crude palm oil (CPO) in 2010 remain positive.  The price of crude oil will also appreciate in time as economic recovery this year gains traction on a global scale.  Golden Agriculture will remain a major beneficiary in such a situation.

Saizen REIT (16c): Another low volume day with the MFI bouncing at the 50% mark.  There is little to say here.  I am still in accumulation mode where this counter is concerned.

Golden Agriculture: High volume sell down

Golden Agriculture broke support provided by the 50% Fibo line at 56.5c to close at 55.5c after touching an intra-day low of 55c. This is on the back of pretty high volume and it seems that the negatives from lower crude oil and crude palm oil prices yesterday were too much to bear. Price is now supported by the rising 20dMA. With this type of high volume movements, there is usually some momentum and expectation is for the price to move lower tomorrow to test supports at 54.5c (38.2% Fibo line) and 54c (gap support). If those break, the next supports are at 51.5c (gap support) and a band between 50c to 51c (many times tested resistance turned supports).

Longer term fundamentals are still good. After selling off 90% of my position by the time it hit 62c last week, today I bought a chunk of Golden Agriculture's shares at the 20dMA support. This was a buy queue I put in last night. I will continue accumulating on further weakness.

Golden Agriculture: A choppy journey

My blog is pretty new but if you have been following my writings for at least the last week or so, you would know that I'm big on Golden Agriculture. In a post on Christmas Day, I wrote about three portfolios and three counters. One of the counters is Golden Agriculture which I called a cyclical counter as it is most sensitive of the three (the other two being Healthway Medical, a growth counter, and Saizen REIT, a yield counter) to economic cycles.

In that post, I said, "Currently at 49c. This is the second largest crude palm oil (CPO) producer in the region. It is heavily levered to the price of CPO compared to Wilmar which has a greater percentage of income from downstream activities. Whether we look at PE, ROA, ROE or Gross Margin, Golden Agriculture looks better than Wilmar. With the improving global economy, the demand for CPO has increased. With the rising price of crude oil, there will be a further increase in demand for CPO as an important source of biofuel. The journey up will be choppy which makes this a perfect counter for trading."Three portfolios and three counters: future gains and passive income

If anyone who were not vested before had taken a position in Golden Agriculture then and sold in the last few sessions at resistance levels on the way up, say at 54c and 62c, he would have made a handsome profit. I know it reached a high of 65.5c but few would have been able to time it that well.

From my earlier chart reading, I said we might soon have a golden opportunity to load up on Golden Agriculture again with a correction in price as true to expectations, the ride is choppy.Golden Agriculture: A golden opportunity.

Crude oil has been trading lower and is down at US$79.13 as of now. Crude palm oil (CPO) has been down for a few sessions now, closing at RM2,510 in the last session, down 1.8%. There is concern that rising production and lower exports may drive stock levels to a new record high. Apparently, America is having a good harvest of soybeans as well which will help put a lid on the price of CPO as a greater availability of soyoil will dampen the demand for CPO.

With such negative newsflow and as Golden Agriculture is the most levered to the price of CPO amongst all the CPO companies listed in Singapore, it will bear the brunt of lowered expectations. With a bearish chart to boot, I would be surprised if Golden Agriculture does not test those support levels identified in my earlier posts.

Crude Oil: US$100 by mid 2010

More affirmation for Darryl Guppy's expectation of US$100 for crude oil through his TA - “As far as current demand trend shows, we will not be wrong to expect the price to rise as high $100 by mid 2010. We are not only seeing a better crude demand but also a better demand for the refined products,” said a Dubai-based trader. Dubai based traders reiterated that they expect the bull run to continue this year.

The comment comes in tandem with the views of Barclays Capital which said that crude demand will rise to a high of $100 a barrel this year, but will average at about $85 a barrel.Oil prices expected to hit $100 in 2010 say Dubai traders

What do we do? Well, this is good news for crude palm oil (CPO). Consider this: Crude oil: Update

Golden Agriculture - Confirmation

Opening with a gap up today confirmed the bullish signal seen on the weekly chart yesterday which was the price closing above resistance provided by the descending 100wMA at 51c. That cleared the way for the counter to move higher. It just needed some buying momentum which was amply provided today as volume quadrupled! This is a strong confirmation even though it is now met with resistance at 54c. This is a short term resistance provided by the 123.6% Fibo line and has a high chance of being overcome in the next session as we have a wickless white candle today. Initial target is at 57c as provided by the 150% Fibo line. Eventual target remains at 62c as posited on 29 Dec 09. 29 Dec 09: Golden Agriculture

Fundamentally, the higher prices of soyoil and crude oil are limiting the downside of crude palm oil (CPO). With the Chinese New Year upcoming next month, demand is not expected to decline anytime soon. For more reasons why CPO is expected to do better in time, please refer to an earlier article in this blog: Crude Palm Oil: Update

Revisiting Keppel Corporation

Keppel Corp is one counter which I bought at under $4 in early 2009 but offloaded too early. I like this counter. The world cannot do without crude oil. Other counters in the same theme which I offloaded too early as well were Ezra and Swiber. With crude oil strengthening in price, it might be time for me to revisit Keppel Corp.

In terms of fundamentals, if one were to seek exposure to offshore counters, Keppel Corp is a better choice as it has a stronger balance sheet. The economy might be recovering but I'm not sure that taking on too much debt is a good idea as is the case with Ezra and Swiber. Keppel Corp also pays out generous dividends which is very attractive to me.

Looking at its weekly charts, the negative divergence between price and volume from May 09 to Dec 09 is quite clear. Buying momentum has been weak as MFI continues its decline, forming lower highs. However, OBV has a gradual slope upwards which indicates longer term accumulation. Price has been hugging support provided by the 20wMA so far. Without any buying momentum, this counter is doing a rather precarious correction using time. Resistance is being provided by the very gradually rising 200wMA at $8.85. The falling 100wMA is unlikely to provide much support in the event the 20wMA breaks. A stronger support would be one provided by the rising 50wMA.

I would wait for a correction before accumulating. I would buy some at the 50% fibo retracement(S$7.55) as a hedge and would buy more if it goes to the 38.2% fibo retracement (S$7.28). If one is already vested, selling some if the price hits the 200wMA would be a nice hedge. Having said this, I am sure that the longer term trend of Keppel Corp is up as the rising 50wMA is on course to form a golden cross with the declining 100wMA in the coming months.

Crude Palm Oil: Update

On New Year's Eve, crude palm oil (CPO) closed up RM68 or 2.62% at RM2,663, a 7 month high. A retest of the high achieved this year at RM2,790 in May is on the cards.

CPO price is more likely to rise than fall in 2010 because of:

1. Demand from the world's top two consumers of vegetable oils: China and India. This demand is expected to increase as economies improve.

2. Bad weather in the Americas leading to lower soybean yields. This leads to lower soyoil production and higher prices. CPO is a substitute which is also less expensive.

3. Crude oil's price movement which is expected to continue rising as a cold winter increases demand for heating fuel in the short term and economies improve through 2010. CPO is an important source of biofuel and would most likely ride the wave up.
Why Golden Agriculture?

A new year and a new decade. Strategy for 2010.

Firstly, Happy New Year! It's the beginning of a new year and a new decade. Many countries in the world still have huge debts to deal with but let's hope things will be better the next 10 years.

This is extracted from the latest issue of NEWSWEEK magazine:

The American goverment may owe China US$799 billion but when it comes to foreign debt per capita, the US is relatively prudent. Which nationality has the highest foreign debt per capita?

Greeks US$ 27,746
Belgians US$ 27,023
Austrians US$ 26,502
Irish US$ 24,247
Norwegians US$ 21,402
Italians US$ 21,089
Dutch US$ 20,412
French US$ 18,946
Germans US$ 15,574
Finns US$ 13,617
Americans US$ 11,094
Danes US$ 9,410
Spaniards US$ 8,715
Swedes US$ 7,058
Brits US$ 6,526

Now, this puts things in perspective. Many countries are still not out of the woods. This gives the idea that we will see the global economy going into a tailspin again in the next 2 or 3 years greater credence. We are experiencing a cyclical bull in a secular bear market and not the beginnings of a secular bull market.

My strategy for 2010?

1. Gold
I am keeping an eye on the price of gold. If it goes closer to the psychologically important support level of US$1,000 an ounce, I will buy more physical gold as a long term hedge against inflation. Gold also acts as an insurance for my other investments. I buy physical gold from UOB.

2. Crude oil
I believe that demand for crude oil will continue to strengthen through 2010. However, it will not go up in a straight line. It will climb a wall of worries and we will have plenty of worries in 2010, no doubt. I would trade counters which are leveraged to the price of crude palm oil (CPO) as a proxy to the price movement of crude oil. I like Golden Agriculture.

3. Japan
As a contrarian play, Japan might outperform after almost two decades being in the doldrums. I like the Japanese Yen. I like Japanese real estate. I like Saizen REIT.

4. Indonesia
A strong emerging market, Indonesia did not suffer negative growth in 2009. I like LMIR and First REIT for the low gearings and the high yields.

5. Healthcare
There is greater demand for quality healthcare with increasing affluence and an ageing population in Singapore. I choose Healthway Medical.

6. Tourism
2010 will be a year where tourist arrivals balloon in Singapore with the completion of the two integrated resorts (IRs). Looking for value and high yield, I like Suntec REIT and SPH.

There are many other counters which will do well in 2010 but I will concentrate on these I've highlighted. The choices here are based on FA. Remember to use TA to identify entry and exit prices. Good luck in 2010.

Crude oil: Update

On Christmas Day, I said, "Technically, crude oil has been in a correction since peaking on 21 Oct. The short term trendline from 21 Oct has been tested 3 times on 4 Nov, 18 Nov and 1 Dec. Price took a plunge from there and only bottomed on 14 Dec. Closing at US$78.05 means that oil is still in a correction stage. We want to see crude oil closing at US$79.00 or higher in the next few sessions to see this broken. We want to see confirmation in time with price action forming higher lows and higher highs."
Crude oil at US$78.05

Taken from: Oil hovers near $79 ahead of U.S. stock data
On Wednesday December 30, 2009, 7:29 am EST
By Emma Farge, REUTERS

Oil held near $79 on Wednesday as cold weather in the United States and an expected fall in both U.S. crude and distillate stocks including heating oil countered a firmer dollar, shoring up prices after a five-day rally.

U.S. crude for February delivery fell 13 cents to $78.74 a barrel by 1124 GMT (6:24 a.m. EST) in thin pre-holiday trade after touching a five-week high the previous day.

Taken from:
Oil-thirsty China to raise Kuwaiti imports by 50 pct
On Wednesday, December 30, 2009
By Chen Aizhu, REUTERS

BEIJING, Dec 30 - China has agreed to raise 2010 crude imports from Kuwait by 50 percent to about 240,000 barrels per day, trade sources told Reuters, with Chinese refiners set to to process at record rates as demand rebounds strongly.

The jump, which follows a one-third increase this year, comes after Iraq said it would more than double exports to the world's second-largest oil consumer and Saudi Arabia agreed to a 12 percent increase for 2010.

China's fuel demand is poised for an 8 percent expansion in 2010, more than double this year's 3 percent, Sinopec's president, Wang Tianpu, told Reuters last month, amid increasing signs of a strong economic recovery spurred by aggressive government spending.

I believe that the demand for crude oil will continue rising through 2010. Crude palm oil will most likely ride the wave up. Golden Agriculture is testing resistance. It's a matter of time before resistance is broken and a new high is made.
Crude oil to hit US$100

Crude oil to hit US$100

I've mentioned before that Darryl Guppy predicted that crude oil will hit US$100 after Christmas based on TA. Now, from a FA perspective, John Kilduff, co-chief investment officer of Round Earth Capital said on 24 Dec 09 that:

"I'm worried about several geopolitical fronts out there that are going to stoke crude oil prices. I think first above $85 real quickly [in 2010], and then I see oil possibly at $100 by the first half of the year."

A strong outlook for crude oil would limit any downside in the price of crude palm oil. I continue to believe that there is limited downside (support is at 46c) for Golden Agriculture as it tries to break resistance at 50c.

Separately, this is taken from an article in Business Times (Malaysia), 25 Dec 09,
Palm oil prices up after 3 straight days of losses

Malaysian crude palm oil futures jumped 2.2 percent on Thursday, after three consecutive days of declines, as higher crude oil prices and a weaker U.S. dollar lifted the market.

The benchmark March contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange settled up RM54 to RM2,554 per tonne after going as high as RM2,573.

“Crude oil is bound to touch 80, sooner or later, and the palm oil traders left in the market are speculating on this,” said a dealer with a foreign commodities brokerage. “We are still quite strong on the demand-supply scenario.”

Expectations of a stock drawdown due to the end of the high production season supported the market. Traders expect stocks to fall about 13 percent to 1.68 million tonnes in December compared with the previous month.

I would accumulate Golden Agriculture on weakness, if any.

Crude oil at US$78.05

Crude oil closed at US$78.05 on Christmas Eve. With this being an extremely cold winter in the northern hemisphere, the price of crude oil might go higher. This would make Darryl Guppy's prediction of a post Christmas high of US$100 closer to reality.

If crude oil breaks the recent high of US$83 achieved on 21 Oct this year, we could expect crude palm oil to follow closely and appreciate in price as well. That would be good news for counters like Golden Agriculture.

Technically, crude oil has been in a correction since peaking on 21 Oct. The short term trendline from 21 Oct has been tested 3 times on 4 Nov, 18 Nov and 1 Dec. Price took a plunge from there and only bottomed on 14 Dec. Closing at US$78.05 means that oil is still in a correction stage. We want to see crude oil closing at US$79.00 or higher in the next few sessions to see this broken. We want to see confirmation in time with price action forming higher lows and higher highs.

The candlesticks formed in the last three sessions for crude oil look like a three white soldiers formation. If the formation follows through, oil is set to move higher sooner rather than later. The longer term trend for crude oil is still up.

Three portfolios and three counters: future gains and passive income

I've been investing in the stockmarket since my university days when I was basically clueless and had some silly notions about investments. Today, I am less clueless and less silly but I'm still human. Emotions, they make us human and, yes, fallible.

To make it easier for me to manage my investment portfolio, I've divided the counters into 3 sub-portfolios:


1. Rubbish - This portfolio is similar to what Citibank did by taking out their toxic and non-performing assets and putting them in a "bad" bank. I've made many mistakes in investments and this portfolio holds my mistakes. Some may ask why I do not just close this portfolio and not look at these counters anymore. Well, human beings are forgetful. I keep this portfolio to remind myself of my follies and, hopefully, will not make the same mistakes. Examples in this portfolio: MPSF and Ferrochina.

2. Alive & Kicking - This portfolio holds shares of companies which were bought before the crash. The businesses are sound and ongoing. They also pay good and consistent dividends. In a bear market, none is spared. Their prices suffered along with the rest when global markets crashed. They have now recovered substantially. Examples in this portfolio: SPH and First REIT.

3. Current - This portfolio holds shares of companies which were bought after October 2008. I selected counters such as Hyflux Water Trust and First REIT based on their defensive business models and high dividend payouts and bought at very depressed prices. Some such as Epure which I've divested totally have been extremely rewarding. I have counters in this portfolio which I will no longer trade but hold for consistent dividend payouts.

Three counters which I will continue to actively monitor are:

a. A growth counter: Healthway Medical - Currently at 12c. In comparison to its peers, it is inexpensive whether you use PE or P/B ratios. If we look at their results in the last quarter, they outperformed Raffles Medical Group in terms of percentage growth. I continue to believe that a price of 17c would be barely fair. Over the next 12 months, I would be surprised if investors in this counter do not make a handsome profit. A strong growth story makes this a buy and hold counter for me. Healthway Medical: Growing a defensive business

b. A cyclical counter: Golden Agriculture - Currently at 49c. This is the second largest crude palm oil (CPO) producer in the region. It is heavily levered to the price of CPO compared to Wilmar which has a greater percentage of income from downstream activities. Whether we look at PE, ROA, ROE or Gross Margin, Golden Agriculture looks better than Wilmar. With the improving global economy, the demand for CPO has increased. With the rising price of crude oil, there will be a further increase in demand for CPO as an important source of biofuel. The journey up will be choppy which makes this a perfect counter for trading. Charts for Golden Agriculture

c. A yield counter: Saizen REIT - Currently at 15c. I thought I would not be able to find another severely undervalued REIT in Singapore after the REIT sector ran up strongly in the last 9 months. I've written quite a bit about this in another entry and so I shall not elaborate here. I am accumulating units in this REIT to form the bulk of my future passive income generation. This is another buy and hold counter for me. Passive income with high yields: Saizen REIT

Why Golden Agriculture?

On 21 Nov 09, crude palm oil's (CPO's) price closed at RM2,419, up RM48 (2.02%), effectively breaking out of a 2 year down trendline which started after price peaked in early 2008 at RM4,330. This down trendline was tested twice earlier this year but not broken.

We are seeing this breakout translate into some strength in the price of CPO producers like Golden Agriculture. I believe that this is something that will continue into the new year and the Chinese New Year when CPO might retest its 2009 peak of RM2,790.

CPO price has been going up due to increased buying in Europe, India and China. The bad weather has caused production to decline marginally and inventory is being drawn down. Domestic demand in Indonesia remains strong. It is a daily necessity that doubles up as a biofuel.

I continue to believe in the future of Crude Oil and that will have a direct impact on the price of CPO. Darryl Guppy predicts that Crude Oil will hit US$100 after Christmas from a TA perspective. I have read elsewhere predictions of between US$85 to US$90 a barrel.

Golden Agriculture remains the cheapest CPO counter, no matter which parameter you use as a measurement. It is also the most levered to CPO price. I remain confident of its future in the next 12 months. This is one counter that I can foresee myself trading for the next 12 months