STI in retreat: Sound Global, Golden Agriculture, Keppel Corporation and REITs.

STI 2,789.35

- Down 66.42 pts.

STI 2,789.35

- Down 66.42 pts.

Not a pretty sight, is it? Scream in panic? Run around in circles? Sell everything and jump off a cliff like lemmings? There is plenty of fear. What should I do? Stay calm and look out for opportunities. I have spent time looking at various counters and I will talk about a few here.

More than two years ago, I went in big on E-pure, the current Sound Global, believing that the water industry is the logical beneficiary from constant efforts by governments around the world to improve water quality for their people. China is still underinvested in this area and Sound Global is a natural beneficiary.

Sound Global's share price touched a low of 40.5c in the recent sell down. As I got in at 20c more than two years ago, I was wondering if the price could go lower. After all, we can't tell if a bottom has been formed until after the fact. Could we see a retest of 40.5c now that sentiments have soured? We could, of course.

However, seeing how volume was not very high as black candles were formed, the bears seem to be lacking in conviction. I will probably start buying in at 48.5c. Why 48.5c? 48.5c could be a significant near term support as that is also where we find the trendline support and the rising 20dMA.

I also subscribe to the idea that there will be increasing demand for food and oil as the middle class in Asia expands. Golden Agriculture is a likely beneficiary of this long term trend.

The counter's price weakness in the last two sessions was on the back of decreasing volumes. This is again a sign that the bears lack conviction. I would like to get back in at supports. I see immediate support at 62c. In very bearish conditions, we could see gap filling at 58c.

I also want to re-initiate a long position in Keppel Corporation. This is a company I held rather short term long positions in both in the Asian Financial Crisis in the late 90s as well as in the Subprime Crisis a couple of years back.

I would like to re-initiate a long position in the conglomerate, believing that it will continue to be a beneficiary of the global race for oil which is a theme I firmly believe in although there could be short term setbacks.

Further weakness could see a retest of $8.40, a natural candlestick support which broke on 23 Sep after being tested multiple times. I would buy in slowly as there are quite a few gaps which could be filled at lower prices if $8.40 should give way. That volume expanded as a long black candle was formed today does not inspire confidence.

I also have my eyes on a few REITs which are seeing weakening unit prices and rising distribution yields. Prices could weaken further if sentiments continue to sour. I will judiciously add to my long positions to benefit from the sell down. Panic? Not me.


Related posts:
1. Why do I not panic?
2. Sleep well at night with a plan.

SoundGlobal: Sound the alarm?

On 27 Jan, I blogged about SoundGlobal and how I was, once upon a time, an investor in the company, when it was known as E-pure. I concluded that blog post by saying "I like to use Fibo lines in such an instance to see how low price could go in case support breaks. Support is, of course, at 70c. Looking at the chart, the three golden ratios are at 62c, 59.5c and 57c. Buy some at those levels? I might if the other signs are encouraging."

The counter closed at 61c today as price hugged the lower Bollinger. ADX has been rising sharply as the negative DI continues higher. More weakness is probable.

However, in case of a rebound, expect gap resistance at 67.5c and support turned resistance at 71c.

Fundamentally, the company's full year results announced today might have disappointed although a 1c dividend was declared.

Year on year, profit increased a mere 2.3% although revenue increased 36.5% and gross profit increased 42.8%. Expenses and income tax shot through the roof.

EPS: RMB 8.4c (Errata: RMB 22.4c)
NAV/share: RMB 149.5c

See announcement here.

So, will I buy at 61c? I think it is still pretty pricey with a PE of about 36x (Errata: 14.5x). I might still be suffering from the memory effect and 61c is just not an attractive price for me to go long on this counter again.

Errata: Made a mistake as I took in only Q4's EPS. At 14.5x, it doesn't look so pricey anymore.

Related post:
SoundGlobal: The former E-pure.

SoundGlobal: The former E-pure.

I was vested in E-pure when it was 20c a share thereabouts. This was back in early 2009. 

I was convinced that China's drive to keep its economy humming in the wake of the Lehman Brothers crisis would benefit the water infrastructure businesses. 





I was also heavily vested in Hyflux Water Trust at that time from 30c for the same reason.  

Read related blog post here.

E-pure was a Chinese company and was likely to be favored over Hyflux in China while Hyflux Water Trust was a business trust with zero gearing treating water for Chinese industrial estates and had a yield of about 17% at a unit price of 30c. 





I divested E-pure completely by the time it neared 60c a share and watched dumbfounded as the share price went on to form new highs, almost doubling from my sell price of close to 60c. 

Hyflux Water Trust was, of course, privatised a few months ago. 

Read related blog post here.





I have been wondering if I should re-invest in E-pure which has been renamed SoundGlobal for some time now. 

It remained on my watchlist but I simply refused to buy any of its shares at prices higher than 60c. 

That's just the memory effect working and, in this case, it seems to have paid off. Related post here.





I just told myself that if the price did not come down to more reasonable levels, there are always other investments out there.

Since hitting a high of $1.04 on 7 April 2010, this counter has not formed a higher high. It is currently hugging the lower Bollinger band as it fast approaches the lows of early September 2010 at 70c a share. 

The obvious difference is that the low of early September 2010 was part of a bottoming process and the MACD was getting ready for a bullish crossover with the signal line. 





The MACD is now declining rapidly in negative territory as its distance with the signal line widens. This is very bearish.

Having said this, both the MFI and RSI are in oversold territories and 70c, being a low that was the price of a successful bottoming process could provide some support. 

Whether it would hold up is another question. I would not speculate on the strength of the support here.





When to accumulate? 

We want to look out for possible positive divergence between price and the momentum oscillators or volume. 

We want to look out for the downtrend halting and clearer signs that price is breaking out of downtrend. 

I like to use Fibo lines in such an instance to see how low price could go in case support breaks. Support is, of course, at 70c. 





Looking at the chart, the three golden ratios are at 62c, 59.5c and 57c. Buy some at those levels? 

I might if the other signs are encouraging.

Determining the impact of news on specific companies

Investors have to determine the implications which news might have on the economy, specific sectors and companies within the sectors. In so doing, investors will be able to position themselves to take advantage of any developments.

So, for example, a year or so ago, when we read about how most cities in China do not have clean drinking water and how the Chinese government intends to spend more on infrastructure, the implication was that companies in the water sector with exposure in China should benefit.

For examples in Singapore, we could consider the near completion of the integrated resorts (IRs) and a growing population. The IRs are expected to attract many more tourists to Singapore in 2010. The hospitality and retail sectors are prime to benefit from this.

With a growing population in line with the government's aim to achieve a long term target population of 6.5m residents in Singapore, we expect real estate developers, healthcare services providers and transportation companies to benefit.

These connections are not difficult to make. Investors just have to keep themselves informed of the latest news. A nightly scan of the latest business news online has become a routine for me.
Identifying trends and value: FA and TA.

Three portfolios and three counters: future gains and passive income

I've been investing in the stockmarket since my university days when I was basically clueless and had some silly notions about investments. Today, I am less clueless and less silly but I'm still human. Emotions, they make us human and, yes, fallible.

To make it easier for me to manage my investment portfolio, I've divided the counters into 3 sub-portfolios:


1. Rubbish - This portfolio is similar to what Citibank did by taking out their toxic and non-performing assets and putting them in a "bad" bank. I've made many mistakes in investments and this portfolio holds my mistakes. Some may ask why I do not just close this portfolio and not look at these counters anymore. Well, human beings are forgetful. I keep this portfolio to remind myself of my follies and, hopefully, will not make the same mistakes. Examples in this portfolio: MPSF and Ferrochina.

2. Alive & Kicking - This portfolio holds shares of companies which were bought before the crash. The businesses are sound and ongoing. They also pay good and consistent dividends. In a bear market, none is spared. Their prices suffered along with the rest when global markets crashed. They have now recovered substantially. Examples in this portfolio: SPH and First REIT.

3. Current - This portfolio holds shares of companies which were bought after October 2008. I selected counters such as Hyflux Water Trust and First REIT based on their defensive business models and high dividend payouts and bought at very depressed prices. Some such as Epure which I've divested totally have been extremely rewarding. I have counters in this portfolio which I will no longer trade but hold for consistent dividend payouts.

Three counters which I will continue to actively monitor are:

a. A growth counter: Healthway Medical - Currently at 12c. In comparison to its peers, it is inexpensive whether you use PE or P/B ratios. If we look at their results in the last quarter, they outperformed Raffles Medical Group in terms of percentage growth. I continue to believe that a price of 17c would be barely fair. Over the next 12 months, I would be surprised if investors in this counter do not make a handsome profit. A strong growth story makes this a buy and hold counter for me. Healthway Medical: Growing a defensive business

b. A cyclical counter: Golden Agriculture - Currently at 49c. This is the second largest crude palm oil (CPO) producer in the region. It is heavily levered to the price of CPO compared to Wilmar which has a greater percentage of income from downstream activities. Whether we look at PE, ROA, ROE or Gross Margin, Golden Agriculture looks better than Wilmar. With the improving global economy, the demand for CPO has increased. With the rising price of crude oil, there will be a further increase in demand for CPO as an important source of biofuel. The journey up will be choppy which makes this a perfect counter for trading. Charts for Golden Agriculture

c. A yield counter: Saizen REIT - Currently at 15c. I thought I would not be able to find another severely undervalued REIT in Singapore after the REIT sector ran up strongly in the last 9 months. I've written quite a bit about this in another entry and so I shall not elaborate here. I am accumulating units in this REIT to form the bulk of my future passive income generation. This is another buy and hold counter for me. Passive income with high yields: Saizen REIT