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Genting SP: Downward drift continues.

Thursday, April 22, 2010

I am getting somewhat bored with saying more or less the same things everyday for a while now.  The market has not been very exciting either way.  So, I am giving myself a break from doing a "Charts in brief" post today.  However, Genting SP's price caught my eyes as it touched a low of 85c before closing at 86c today.  I am not vested in this counter but the amount of interest it has generated as the biggest story in Singapore's entertainment and hospitality industries in recent times got me looking on as well.

Technically, it would seem as if a test of the previous low at 83.5c achieved on 4 March is on the cards. The 20d, 50d and 100d MAs are all downtrending.  The MACD is still below zero and has formed a bearish crossover with the signal line.  OBV shows distribution taking place.  MFI shows a lack of buying momentum.  Stochastics has just dipped into oversold territory. 

A bearish picture is obvious, no doubt. However, the selling down lacks strong conviction, in my opinion.  If we look at 18 Feb which was the day the $1.02 support gave way completely, the volume was extremely high.  Volume has been relatively low since that day as price retreated.  I am not saying that price could not go lower but I am saying that the current selling pressure does not seem as great as it was earlier this year.  Having said this, price could go lower and I see 80c as a significant support level.

What if 80c gives way? Well, a look at the weekly chart shows the 100wMA at 75c and this should provide a stronger support.

Related post:
Genting SP: Stale bulls' second chance?


la papillion said...

Hey Ak,

Looking at genting too? haha :)

Let's compare notes. I do not want to get into genting, but if the trading opportunity arrives, I might take a shot with a stop loss. Usually I'll trade a fundamentally sound counter without cut loss.

AK71 said...

Hi LP,

My style, since this last financial crisis, has been to invest only in fundamentally sound counters without any cut loss as well.

I find it too painful to cut loss. Mentally, I am not conditioned to cut loss but I force myself to do it sometimes. Ouch.

Your TA is way more cheem than mine: "Macd histogram shows a possible class A divergence, though we’re currently at the B stage only". Wah!!! It's like Xiang Long Shi Ba Zhang! :)

Genting SP might be good for a trade if all the stars align. ;-p

la papillion said...

Hi Ak,

Nevermind my cheam words, it's meant for the same group of pple that understands them, so I didn't bother to explain further :)

Basically, genting is a pending buy, as long as certain conditions are met :) I don't mind taking a small position to see how it turns out.

AK71 said...

Hi LP,

Haha.. I kinda guessed the meaning. Similar to my own reading, I guess. ;)

I have three new positions in the last few weeks: Courage Marine, CapitaMalls Asia and China Hongxing. I think I will stay sidelined for a bit where Genting SP is concerned. Good luck, mon ami. :)

PR said...

Hi, i'm sharing my view on capmallasia. Looking at the big picture, i can see a symetrical triangle that has formed and the bearish breakout occurs on 16th april. Since then, the selling has occur with heavy volume which is another bearish sign. A 3rd berish sign is the failure of the 2.19 all time low support. A target objective might be 2.07.

AK71 said...

Hi PR,

Yes, I see $2.07 as well if $2.12 goes. CapitaMalls Asia's technicals are bearish overall, for sure.

However, the technicals today suggest that we might experience a bounce in price from the current oversold conditions.

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