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AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, Saizen REIT, Genting SP, China Hongxing, Healthway Medical and Golden Agriculture.

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

There is much talk about the military confrontation in the Korean peninsula which took place today. Could this be the reason why the STI sank 2%? Fear is in the air?

Seoul (The Korea Herald/ANN) - North Korea fired dozens of coastal artillery shells, some of which fell on the South's Yeonpyaong Island near the tense western inter-Korean border, the Joint Chiefs of Staff said Tuesday.

"The North fired dozens of artillery rounds from its Gaemeori western coastal artillery base at 14:34 p.m. In response to the military provocations, we fired back dozens of rounds with K9 self-propelled howitzers," JCS spokesman Col. Lee Bung-woo told reporters.

In the artillery firing, one soldier was killed and four marine solider were seriously injured. The military was trying to evacuate civilians on the island near the border. Several civilians were reported to have suffered injuries.
Read full story here.



I would keep calm and question how would the events affect my investments. As far as I could see, my investments are relatively unscathed. If there should be some irrational selling down, I could buy more. Let us look at some counters:


AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT
The recent buying up of units in this REIT at 22.5c and 23c evaporated today. On 25 Oct, I mentioned that "A reader asked if I managed to get more at 22c today. No, I didn't. I am waiting at 21.5c." Today, I got what I have been waiting for. My overnight buy queue at 21.5c was filled.

Fundamentally, there is no reason for a weakening of price here. Technically, it could weaken and I decided to wait and it paid off. Now, could it weaken further and I know for a fact that someone in LP's infamous cbox is waiting to buy at 1 bid lower than my purchase price today.

21c looks like a many times tested resistance of an earlier base formation and this could be a strong support if price ever goes that low. I would buy more then. In fact, I am already in the buy queue. The MACD is testing its own trendline support and I would be surprised if price goes much lower.

Related post:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Accumulation price?

Saizen REIT
This REIT's unit price has been showing some resilience lately which leads me to believe that most of the people who would sell at 15.5c have sold. Despite a rather large sell down of more than 5,000 lots today, unit price remained at 16c. I believe that is a sign of strength.


Looking at the chart, it seems that 16.5c is the upper limit of the Bollinger bands and at 16c, this REIT is trading above all the daily MAs except the 200dMA. I like the rising MACD. All the daily MAs are coming together, bunching together, creating much tension. One day, the spring would have to uncoil.

Genting SP
A friend has money tied up here and I am sure quite a few readers too including someone who wrote recently that he gave up on Saizen REIT and shifted his money into Genting SP instead. On 18 Nov, I mentioned that "If price does not recapture the 50dMA as support, immediate support is at $2 with the next support after that at $1.85."


The support at $2 cracked today and it looked, for a few moments, as if it could just cling on but the bears proved too strong and a wickless black candle was formed as price closed at $1.95 on high volume. $2 could now be resistance. The gap down on 12 Nov was indeed a bad omen.

With the 20dMA turning down and the MACD dipping into negative territory, we could see a further weakening of price here. $1.85 as a support could be tested in due course. Since peaking on 9 Nov, OBV has been in decline which suggests that distribution is ongoing. This could exert further downward pressure on the share price.



China Hongxing
The support provided by the 200dMA has been taken out and price closed at 14.5c. If 14.5c fails to hold, we could see support at 13c tested in due course. 13c was the neckline of the double bottom formed in June/July and should be a stronger support.


MFI could be testing its uptrend support soon. RSI and Stochastics are both in oversold region. However, the MACD histogram's buy signal has been negated.  It would be prudent to wait for clearer signs of a reversal before wading into a long position here, especially with the support at 200dMA compromised.

Related post:
China Hongxing: Testing support.

Healthway Medical
Technically, the picture remains largely the same. However, the buy signal on the MACD histogram has been negated. Volume remains low and there was some selling down at 15c, the floor identified earlier.


Immediate resistance is at 15.5c which is also where the 20dMA is approximating. The jury is still out on this one.

Related post:
Healthway Medical: Prime for a rebound?

Golden Agriculture
On 18 Nov, I said "I still see a negative divergence between price and volume. The MACD has completed a bearish crossover with the signal line but being in positive territory, it suggests that the retreat in price could just be a correction. In such a case, we could see price weakening further to 65c, the next major support, if the support at 70c fails to hold up."


Support at 70c was taken out convincingly today. The MACD continues to decline, pulling away below the signal line although still in positive territory. MFI and RSI have been forming lower highs.  All suggest that positive momentum is declining. 65c support could be tested sooner rather than later. Buy at 65c? As a hedge, sure. If 65c breaks, the next support is at 61c.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi AK,

Its me, LZY, again. Bought HLS for a 3rd round today. Overnight queue at 0.29 which is where the 200 dma is.

Although price touched .285, it closed at 0.295! =) If i remember correctly, they have bidded for a number of projects and results will be out before year end.

Cheers
LZY

AK71 said...

Hi LZY,

Congratulations on your purchases. :)

Anonymous said...

AIMS released a business update on Tuesday. Good to see that they have attracted blue chip tenants on long term escalating lease which boost the portfolio occupancy. Any thoughts on the latest personnel to join their Senior Management ? Seems to be doing pretty well.

Nick

AK71 said...

Hi Nick,

I put my money where my mouth is. I have bought more units of AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT at 21.5c. ;)

Thanks for the updates. :-)

Anonymous said...

AK

Congrats on your 21.5c BUY.

For the 1st time, i really see and sense what news can do to the stock market. And during office hours too. I took profit on one of my REIT counters, while it is still in the $. Perhaps feel guilty for joining the mass of selling and that I had reacted too slow. But I dun hawk eye the market and opportunities or reactions like this will be missed..... Perhaps I am still a newbie at riding out the waves....

But with this, i also learn to actively explore and learn how the e-portal of my brokerage firm works. Hmmm...Queue, Alerts, Trust a/c, settlement dates etc etc ...

Huat ah....

SnOOpy168

AK71 said...

Hi SnOOpy168,

Sudden developments which could be very temporary in nature might affect the stock market. The market is, after all, not the most rational creature around and reacts to feelings of fear and greed.

This is where the charts are useful as TA gives us a window into the pyschology of market participants. However, in certain situations such as the mass hysteria that surrounded the Lehman Brothers collapse, even TA became incapacitated (quoting Michael Kahn).

We do our best and if our best is not good enough, what to do? ;)

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