Sponsored Links

To retire by age 45, start with a plan.

"Is early retirement the right financial choice?" Jim Ellis discusses long-term financial growth strategies. I have blogged a...

Past blog posts now load week by week. The old style created a problem for some as the system would load 50 blog posts each time. Hope the new style is better. Search archives in box below.

Archives

"E-book" by AK

Second "e-book".

Pageviews since Dec'09

Recent Comments

ASSI's Guest bloggers

Bloodbath continues and AK71 went shopping!

Monday, August 8, 2011

Another day of heavy selling. Lots of panic! Pandemonium even! What should we do? Stay calm and be rational. Have a plan and execute it. I took my own advice and did exactly that.

I am currently about 50% invested in the stock market. Of this 50%, about 80% is invested for income and much of this is from S-REITs. Currently, my five largest investments in S-REITs are:

1. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT
2. Sabana REIT
3. First REIT
4. LMIR
5. Cache Logistics Trust

In my last blog post on AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, I suggested that 20c would be a very strong support and that I expected many to want to buy at 20c. So, why not queue 1 bid higher at 20.5c too?

Today, my buy order at 20.5c was filled while the buy order at 20c was almost half filled. However, as my buy order at 20c was some 10 times bigger than the buy order at 20.5c (which was more of a hedge), I am quite happy that almost half of it was filled.


Regular readers would remember that I partially divested AIMS AMP Capital REIT at 21.5c/unit to get more Sabana REIT at 92c/unit some time back. So, buying at 20c today was a sweet moment for me. Having only bought back some 25% of what was sold at 21.5c/unit, I am fully prepared to buy more if price were to retest the REIT's historical low of 19c/unit.


Last Friday, I loaded up on Sabana REIT at 92c. Today, I loaded up again at 91c and 90c which were the two support levels identified in my last blog post on the REIT. 90c is the historical low and more than half of the total units that changed hands today happened at 90c.


There is some support, no doubt, but if support at 90c were to be compromised, we could see unit price hitting 88c or 87c if the Fibo lines are anything to go by. At 88c and 87c, we would be looking at a distribution yield in excess of 10% per annum and I would not be able to resist buying more.


Finally, I loaded more units of First REIT. If you refer to my last blog post on the REIT, you would see that I drew 3 horizontal lines at 77c, 76c and 74.5c. These were the supports I identified. The buy orders I put in at all three levels were filled today.


A these prices, we are looking at a distribution yield of about 8.5% on average. With more acquisitions in the pipeline, distribution yield could increase and the very low gearing the REIT currently has means a lower chance of equity fund raising.

Could we see price going lower to test 72.5c or 71.5c? We could. Then, I would buy again.


32 comments:

financialray said...

Got deep pockets then can stay calm and have rational mind.
Unfortunately, US does not have.

Sabana should be quite strong. Bahrain investor loaded up on the stock quite a bit early Aug.Looks good. Good luck to us all amidst this blood bath.

kelvintan73 said...

How many lots of First REIT you buy each time 77, 76 and 74.5?

As of now, I use Stan Chart and buy 1 lot during this time.

Data said...

Congratulations! These are the times that test us investors.

Anonymous said...

Motley:

Since you are accumulating, then lower and lower prices are what you are looking for. And lower prices is what i am looking for.

I enjoy reading your blog and will like to contribute something.

My view is less or non technicals but more macro.

The problems we have in US and Europe goes way back. In 2008 we had the incident. We "got out" of it because debt was transferred from Financial institutions to governments (sovereign debt) ...

But now the european countries are dying under the weight ... US can print their money so Warren Buffet is right but Europe have no central monetary body. S&P with the downgrade on the US just made the situation worse for Europe. If US is AA+ then Europe is less than that.

This is another interesting horror movie show.

AK71 said...

Hi financialray,

Deep pocketed middle easterners buying up units in Sabana REIT? Thanks for the good news. ;)

Singapore Man Of Leisure said...

Must say a word of thanks to you!

Without your sticking with your plans baXXs of steel buying, I would have no counter-balance to the liquidate everything alternative to my story ;)

It's always good to see both sides of the equation!

AK71 said...

Hi Kelvin,

I am not comfortable revealing the exact number of lots I bought at each price level but if I were to use ratios, it is less of an issue for me. ;)

77c - 1x
76c - 2x
74.5c - 5x

Standard Chartered brokerage account is good for people who like to nibble. :)

AK71 said...

Hi Data,

Testing times indeed. Good luck! :)

AK71 said...

Hi Motley,

You do enjoy horror movies, don't you? Haha.. ;)

There is no doubt that the USA and the EC are in deep trouble over debt issues. How will they solve the problem? Jim Rogers think that they should go bankrupt and start afresh. Let people who made all the loans lose money because they made bad decisions. Well, I don't think the governments would allow that. So, more QEs? I think so but who knows for sure?

I do know that the REITs I am vested in are stronger in their numbers and that they should weather the storm better than they did back when Lehman Brothers collapsed.

However, Mr. Market tends to go to extremes. So, I am prepared for lower prices, if they should happen. :)

AK71 said...

Hi SMOL,

Well, I do know of people who liquidated everything. The jury is still out on this one. I could be so wrong, couldn't I? ;)

I just do not like the idea of selling when prices are going down. I like to sell at resistance. :)

FoodieFC said...

you have deep pockets!! i wonder how much have u got on hand to invest!

AK71 said...

Hi FoodieFC,

Enough for me to sleep soundly at night and take advantage of further weakness in prices. ;)

Hwang said...

Hehe, enjoy your shopping trip AK.

I wish i will have a pocket that deep in 10 years' time.

AK71 said...

Hi Hwang,

I doubt I will be buying a lot more because I bought at some rather important support levels in the last session.

If those support levels were to fail, it is hard to say how much more prices could fall in some cases.

Having said that, I would not be averse to nibbling a bit here and there in case of further weakness. ;)

Anonymous said...

Motley:

look at the futures!!

good buying for you

AK71 said...

Hi Motley,

Bargains galore? ;)

Anonymous said...

Congrats AK on your shopping spree.

Wished I had waited just that few days and have deeper pockets. :-(

SnOOpy168

AK71 said...

Hi SnOOpy168,

Things could get worse before they get better. So, you might not be missing out on anything.

Important to keep some powder dry as even better bargains could be thrown at us in the near future. ;)

Anonymous said...

Hi Hi

I learn a lot from ur blog. Can I know where to learn ur knowledge as i understand u r not from financial background. How did u manage to learn so much? amazing. I was lucky i did not get into the market a few days ago when it was at its peak (when US got its debt ceiling up). if not, i will be sinking now.
Looking into golden agri now

AK71 said...

Hi Anonymous,

Just have to read a lot. Periodicals, books, internet sources etc. ;)

I am just your average investor, really.

If you have found my blog useful in anyway, I am happy. :)

Could you include your name or initials in future comments? Thanks.

Jax Woon said...

Hi Ak,

I have been following your blog and I really like it...

I see that you split your purchases and do not go in at one shot... But wouldnt that drive up your commission fees overtime?

Am I missing something?

AK71 said...

Hi Jax,

I am glad you like my blog. :)

If the value per transaction, be it a purchase or sale, is at least $10K, the issue you raised is not an issue.

If I have misunderstood your concerns, please let me know.

Jax Woon said...

Dear AK,

I see. I understand your point. You are saying that the fees are small compared to your investments and you are not overly concerned with that small change :)

financialray said...

ha ha AK

See what I mean
I think you can start a 1-day or 3 day course on how to maneouvre the market.
Your "students" can then access your blog on an exclusive basis.
You can also have regular teacher-student update sessions for those who sign up the course.

Anonymous said...

A good day AK! Me trade with POEM, any view or more details about Stand Chartered? Fruitful trading!
JO.........

AK71 said...

Hi Jax,

I would not have said it that way, actually. ;)

There is a minimum charge per transaction (unless we have a SCB brokerage account). So, I try to make sure each trade will make this minimum charge less consequential. :)

AK71 said...

Hi financialray,

Yes, I see your point. :)

I think I will keep the status quo for now.

In future, if I am retired from my full time job, I might devote more time to my blog and your suggestion could be an option, I suppose. ;p

AK71 said...

Hi JO,

I understand that an SCB brokerage account now does not have a minimum brokerage fee.

So, it is good for people who have relatively small transactions which are, perhaps, less than $5k per transaction.

I did not really find out more about it. So, I cannot tell you more. Give them a call. ;)

CK said...

Congrats AK!
Must be really satisfying to pick up on the cheap.

I'm amazed at your capital though.
You say u are 50% invested in stocks. Of this total 100% are u talking about your total asset or talking about liquid investment warchest?

Just running some numbers through...
But if this is liquid investment warchest that is quite an amount for a 40 year old!

Earlier u said u are near to your target of 50k dividend a year. Assuming 40k dividend intake this year, at 10% yield gives 400k investment for income. 400k as 80% of your stock gives 500k total stock investment. Which means your 100% is a cool 1 million!

Wow! And this does not even take into account your CPF, house etc...

I wish i could be like u when i reach 40!

INVS 2.0 said...

Hi AK47,

How come your lowest support line for AIMSAMP is $0.19 while mine (using the same software) is $0.185? It seems that all the lines have $0.005 discrepancy. Did I miss out on anything?

AK71 said...

Hi CK,

Hmmm... I am becoming wary about sharing too much by way of numbers. Quite a few are trying to work out how much in absolute dollars I actually have. You are not the first. ;)

I will not say if you are right or wrong but I will say that my portfolio including cash is not a small one by usual standards. Having said this, I do know of people younger than me who have even bigger portfolios and one of them is a blogger, Wealth Journey, who is in his 30s. So, I have higher mountains to climb.

As for real estate, I no longer own any, having recently sold out and waiting for the sales to be completed. So, it is just cash, equities, some gold and silver in my portfolio now.

I will say that if we make the right decisions in investments, we can grow our wealth quickly. There are many bloggers who are willing to share their experience out there. :)

AK71 said...

Hi INVS 2.0,

I have absolutely no idea. Weird... :(

Monthly Popular Posts

 
 
Bloggy Award