REITs and rights issues: A zero sum game?

There has been a deluge of articles on REITs recently and my own blog posts on the subject have attracted many comments although not as many as the blog post in which I revealed my total passive income from S-REITs for the first nine months of this year. ;p

I received comments from a reader, Chopra, regarding my simplistic analogy given in "REITS and rights issues: A Singaporean tale." Read it here.

Hi Chopra,

I did say my analogy is a simplistic one. It was partly a tongue in cheek blog post in response to the rather simplistic picture of REITs painted by certain critics.

Of course, there are other factors to be considered in rights issues before we could make an informed decision on whether they are good, neutral or bad for the different types of investors involved.

To have a blanket statement that REITs will take back all the income distributed to unitholders through rights issues is not only misinformed, it is misleading. That is the primary reason why the article came under fire.

Saying that rights issues are zero sum games is just another way of saying the same thing. So, I cannot agree with you. Some rights issues are beneficial to unitholders and some are not. Just compare the rights issue of First REIT with that of CitySpring Infrastructure Trust not too long ago. You will see what I mean.

Generalisations are often convenient but they are also often inaccurate.

We must realise that REITs give out at least 90% of their income to unitholders. So, they need to leverage up or raise funds through equities to grow. Whether these activities are carried out sensibly is another question but anyone unhappy with such a model should give REITs a wide berth.

I won't go into how much it would cost an investor to take part in each rights issue or to sell their nil-paid rights. I would also not look at the frequency of rights issues. It is like looking at the trees and not the forest. In fact, I do not mind frequent rights issues if they should be consistently or mostly beneficial for me as a unitholder.

Finally, I won't compare REITs and blue chips. They satisfy different investors with different objectives.

Personally, investing in certain REITs has been very rewarding for me. I am also vested in a few blue chips. Certainly, not all REITs are bad and not all blue chips are good. Would I compare their performance against one another? I could compare apples and oranges but I won't. I enjoy both.

Bought Hyflux and AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT.

My overnight buy order for Hyflux at $1.20 was filled. Looking at the daily chart, it is immediately clear why I put in a buy order at that level. It is support. Even with a confirmation of a reversal signal, we want to buy as close to support as possible. Of course, luck plays a part because in very bullish circumstances, price could have gapped up and gone higher.

A white hammer was formed again today as price moved marginally higher on the back of lower volume. It was a weak white candle day. Bulls seemed to be rather cautious as the weekend is always a wild card. If nothing untoward happens this weekend, price could resume its upward climb. Immediate resistance is at $1.28 in such an instance.

It would be interesting to see if price could rise as high as $1.39 which is where the declining 50dMA is approximating. Of course, in another few sessions, the 50dMA would be lower and a gap filling at $1.365 could prove to be a rather strong resistance.

Today, I also bought more AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT at 95c. This means a pre-consolidation price of 19c per unit. For long time unitholders, it would immediately look cheap. At that price, we are looking at a distribution yield of 10.5%. The fundamentals of the REIT have not deteriorated. Well, not that I know of. So, the weakness provided me a chance to increase exposure to the REIT.

Regular readers might remember that I divested a significant portion of my investment in this REIT and moved the funds to Sabana REIT to have equal weightage in these two industrial properties S-REITs. The only way to entice me to increase my investment in this REIT once more is to offer a meaningfully higher distribution yield, everything else remaining equal, and that happened today. So, you would see me accumulating on further weakness. 90c next?

Technnically, despite a spike in volume as price gapped down today, all that was formed at the end of the day was a doji. To me, that is an encouraging sign for long holders.

Julius Baer downgrades Hyflux to hold and cut its target price to $1.30 from $2.30. “We believe that Hyflux will face challenges in winning projects to catalyse its share price due to its current stretched balance sheet,” Julius Baer said in a report.

Friday, 02 December 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Hyflux and Sound Global.

Regular readers know that I invested heavily in Hyflux Water Trust during the last crisis. I was drawn towards its very high distribution yield of some 17% and zero gearing at one stage as well as its very stable businesses. The Trust helped to grow my wealth significantly.

I continue to like the water business and believe that the world will continue to need solutions to water problems. In an earlier blog post, I said I would like to become an investor in Sound Global (the former E-pure) once again. Of course, I would also be interested in Hyflux. It is just a matter of finding an entry price I would be comfortable with.

If we look at Hyflux's chart, the downtrend is definitely intact. What interests me is the higher low on the MACD as its price formed a lower low. Yes, we have a positive divergence which is a reversal signal. What got me even more interested is that the white hammer formed yesterday was confirmed today as price opened and closed higher on the back of much greater volume.

I certainly do not know if Hyflux's share price has bottomed. It might be bottoming but we cannot call a bottom until it has formed. However, I might initiate a long position as a hedge and will not add to this initial position unless a clearer picture is seen.

Sound Global, on the other hand, is exhibiting more strength although it has come up against a significant resistance, it would seem.

As its downtrend is arguably intact, I am wary about initiating a long position when price looks like it could be testing the immediate resistance. So, for Sound Global, I will wait a bit more.

How did AK71 overcome his losses and grow his portfolio?

I get quite a few comments in my blog and some comments require more detailed replies than others. I have decided that for more detailed replies, I should put them up as blog posts from now. This one is in reply to Ray's comment here.

Hi Ray,

Actually, when I finally fully divested from CitySpring, I did not lose money.

See: CitySpring Infrastructure Trust: Thoughts on divestment.

I was also spared the subsequent rights issue.

See: CitySpring Infrastructure Trust: Rights issue.

Up till now, for me, the trusts which I count as heavy losses are MPSF and FSL Trust. For REITs, I lost on FCOT (the former Allco REIT) and Saizen REIT but these were not heavy losses if I take into consideration dividends received and trading gains, if any. I would consider 5 figure losses as heavy losses. That's just me.

All other REITs I am vested in are in the black. Many, like AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, were in the red but recognising the improving fundamentals, I used the weakness in the last crisis to add to my investments. Such decisions have been rewarding and I am likely to repeat such decisions if history should repeat itself.

The value of my stocks investment portfolio practically doubled as we emerged from the last crisis. Many investments were divested as I moved most of my funds into high yielding REITs resulting in what I have now.

The divested investments were growth stocks mostly. The one which was not was Hyflux Water Trust and that was privatised. So, it was a forced divestment but at a premium of 150% to my purchase price, I couldn't complain.

See: Hyflux Water Trust: Privatisation.

Overall for me, in the last three years, trading gains outweigh trading losses 3 to 1 but in the last one year, all the gains to my portfolio of stocks were from the hefty dividends received as circumstances did not and still do not favour long investors. Honestly, I booked some paper losses trying to trade the market in recent months. The decision to focus more on investing for income, however, paid off.

Dr. Marc Faber said the last crisis was a once in a lifetime opportunity to make a lot of money in the stock market. Is it likely to be repeated in the near future? I do not know and, hence, my current strategy of being partially invested.

Generally, how did I grow and manage my wealth? I have shared my thoughts here in my blog but I have left out the specifics because I care about my privacy and I believe it to be extremely unlikely that two unrelated persons would have the exact same path anyway. For anyone who might be interested, the relevant blog posts are in the right sidebar under the headings of "Passive Income Journey" and "Wealth Creation".

There are many roads to wealth creation and each of us should choose our own path. Some well known bloggers like Musicwhiz and Createwealth do not invest in properties, for example, and they are doing well following their own paths.

Personally, I invested in properties and their recent divestments gave me some handsome gains which are now in my warchest awaiting deployment.

Know what we want. Know ourselves and what we can deal with given our circumstances. Finally, strategise and work towards a target.

It is the toughest at the beginning and this I can say for sure. However, whichever school we decide to follow, it gets easier with time. So, do not lose heart. There is no short cut but do not cut short your journey towards financial freedom.

The Muppets movie!

Jim Henson created the Muppets in the mid-1950s and The Muppet Show ran from 1976-1981.

The Muppets have long been known for their big musical numbers and Disney’s The Muppets movie not only maintains the tradition but also takes it to new levels with original songs, audience favorites and signature classic covers.

This is the first Muppets movie in 12 years and throughout the whole filming process, the Henson family has been on board together with the cast and crew.

Find out more about the movie which will hit the big screen on 8 December:
http://sg.churpchurp.com/AK71SG/share/muppets

Enjoy the movie!

REITs and rights issues: A Singaporean tale.

Some readers told me I should let my hair down and try blogging with a more local flavour. Should I try to inject some local flavour into my blog? Hmmm...

REITs have been getting a lot of attention lately and, generally, I think it is a good thing. However, I would like to see more balanced write ups which would do the subject justice.




Recently, another article in the newspapers was brought to my attention. The article is by Teh Hooi Leng, titled "The REIT myth busted." With a title like this, despite any claims to the contrary, the immediate impression given is a negative one.

At least two bloggers I know of have referred to the article and one highlighted that "Whatever Reits pay out in dividends, they will take back a few years later in the form of rights issues". A statement like this is not just simple, it is simplistic.

Indeed, a reader commented on the same newspaper article and expressed his displeasure. I replied to his comment in my usual fashion. See it here.




Now, let me see if I could inject some local flavour into this blog post with a somewhat simplistic analogy since being simplistic seems to be in vogue:

Once upon a time in Singapore, there was a father and son investment team. They invested in a condominium unit next to Bedok reservoir. Every year, the father would distribute 90% of the income from the rental collected from the condominium unit.

Ten years later, the father told the son that he wanted to invest in another condominium unit and asked the son if he would like to put down some capital for this new investment. The son did some calculations and realised that he would have had to "give back" all the money his father had distributed to him from the rental collected from the Bedok reservoir condominium unit over the last ten years!




"Wah, lao peh, how can liddat one?! You taking back all the money you gave me in the last ten years! You cheat my money izzit?", the son was indignant.

The father smiled indulgently at his son and explained that, with the proposed investment, he would be able to double the income distributed every year to him from rental collected from two condominium units instead of one but, of course, the son could choose not to be a part of the second investment. The son had a choice.

The father was not taking back whatever he had paid out to the son in the last ten years as the father didn't have the right to do so. The father was offering the son the right to either accept or refuse a part in the new investment.




Remember: When asked for money, ponder on the reason why. This is more important than the money involved. Looking at only the money involved is myopic.

With so many voices against REITs and their rights issues, it is easy to sing in a choir but to sing solo, that is much harder. OK, what do I know? I am just a retail investor.

Related posts:
1. REITs and rights issues: Dilutive or not?
2. Investing in REITs: A flawed strategy?

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DBS cuts Ascott Residence Trust rating Monday, 28 November 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Bearish or bullish? Listen to experts?

Towards end of the year, often investors look forward to a run up in share prices. Some look forward to the Capricorn Effect which is expected to happen at the start of the new year. Could it happen again or would the mountain trekking herbivore do a disappearing act?

Personally, I am sticking to my plan of holding on to dividend generating investments and not adding unless compelling value is evident. I do not know if the bear is going to strengthen or if the bull would make a dramatic return. I definitely do not know when either scenario might happen.

There is quite a bit of pessimism and fear in the air, that we know. Whether we have hit extreme fear and pessimism, I am not so sure but people (including myself) are still looking forward to that big crash before we roll out our warchests. So, I suppose there is still some optimism and hope.

Conventional wisdom would say that when the last iota of hope has been crushed, we would see the market bottom. That would be when no one wants to talk about stocks anymore. Be savvy. Be brave. That would be when we pick up undervalued stocks with abandon although we might not talk about them. ;)

You might be interested in reading the following article for some expert opinions but I would say to anyone that it is important to have a plan in place and act upon it when the time comes. Do not get distracted by the news:

Article in CNA: Investors brace for bearish market.

Bear:
"Sani Hamid, director of wealth management at Financial Alliance, said: "What I suspect is that this market still has a bit way to go to downside before it burns itself out, which is a point of capitulation whereby everybody is just really gloomy and bearish. When the situation reaches that point, I think that's when markets will bottom."

Bull:
Mr Brice said: "Ultimately we believe that we will get that rebound and that quantitative easing in the US will happen in the first quarter of next year. And we believe eventually Europe will get its head around the problem and gradually move towards some sort of resolution. We do believe we will see progress there. In that environment we could see quite a significant risk rally."

Related post:
No change to my plan as I plan changes to my life.