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Stock market correction, Facebook and #SGUnited!

Friday, April 10, 2020

Happy Good Friday!

Happy public holiday!

Happy long weekend!

Of course, with the partial lockdown Singapore is in now, it really doesn't make any difference to many, if not most, people here.

It definitely does not make any difference to AK since my life is one super duper long weekend.

What?

Cannot call it a lockdown?

Must say "circuit breaker"?

OK, whatever floats your boat.

Anyway, I wasn't thinking of blogging this weekend.

Having too much fun in Neverwinter, you know.

However, I got two comments in my blog from readers and the blogging bug bit me.






First comment was about me "betting (on) another correction."

Alamak.

When did I bet there will be another correction?

I have shared my strategy a few times in recent weeks and it has always been to wait for the dust to settle.

The latest update was just a few days ago on 7 April 2020:
Buying DBS, OCBC, UOB and cheering for IREIT Global.

Readers who have been following my blog for a long time will know that I do not believe in being overly pessimistic or overly optimistic.

I believe in being pragmatic.

That's also why I always say we should stay invested but have a war chest (or two) ready and not be too extreme.

"On one end, there are people who are almost 100% in cash. I think they are doing a Chicken Little.

"On the other end, there are people who don't like to see money sitting in their bank accounts. They imagine the money is rotting away."

Source:
Sit with all that cash and do nothing?

I should not try to predict what Mr. Market will do.

However, I can certainly prepare.

What I do very much depends on what Mr. Market does.

If you have yet to read what my plan is or if you cannot remember what it is, you might want to read my last update which was the blog before this one.






Anyway, on to another reader's comment.

It is about Facebook.

More specifically, it is about my Facebook account.

Many readers will remember that Facebook did a terrible thing to AK about a year ago.

So hurtful.

If you cannot remember, read this blog:

Financially free and Facebook free!

Well, apparently, things are back to normal now.

The reader said:

"Just to let you know that your Facebook is back to normal now.

"We can see your post and everything."

OK.

Hmm.

That's nice.

What does that mean?

Facebook realised their mistake?

I don't know the reason behind their change of heart.






Anyway, I did not try to log in to my Facebook account after reading the comment.

I just didn't feel any urge to do so.

After being Facebook free for slightly more than a year, I don't miss it.

Not even a tiny bit.

If this had happened a couple of months after I became Facebook free, I would probably have gone back to using Facebook.

However, to be honest, I rather like being Facebook free now.

OK, like I said, I did not log in to Facebook to verify if Facebook restored the links to my blog both in my page as well as on my wall.

I am just blogging based on what I was told.

Readers who are not Facebook free like I am could have a look see, if you like.

Maybe, try posting a link to this blog on your Facebook page or wall and see if the link works.






It is the 4th day of the "circuit breaker" here in Singapore.

Although I know there will be irresponsible people who do not follow the rules, it still upsets me to see them.

I saw a few of them just yesterday when I went out to the nearby supermarket to buy eggs and to take away my dinner at the "kopitiam".

For example, I saw a young couple and their two children at the playground playing before they went into the supermarket.

Alamak, understand the rules or not?

They even cordoned off the playground and you still bring your children there?

What kind of message you sending to your children?

Grow up to be irresponsible like daddy and mommy?

Go supermarket must whole family go, is it?

Husband goes to supermarket and wife stays at home with the children, can or not?

Or if the wife has a louder voice, then husband stays at home with the children lah.

Use your brain!

Really lor.

Suka suka like that?

KNS!

Makes my blood boil.

Be socially responsible and hope that this "circuit breaker" will not be extended beyond a month, can or not?

We are #SGUnited.





Related post:
Largest REIT investments updated.

58 comments:

Lim tong said...

Hello AK, do you think CDG will suspend their dividend payment or not? Esp it is expected that they will make loss in the coming quarter after all the relief that they have paid to their driver?

Cheers

AK71 said...

Hi Lim Tong,

Yes, a suspension of dividends is a definite possibility.

"We should be prepared for a reduction or a suspension of dividend payout in some instances."

Source:
1Q 2020 passive income: COVID-19 disaster.

iwimsasl said...

Hi Ak, the worst performance si far for SReits are EHT and Lmirt. The latter price look attractive, do you still hold any and can talk to yourself on that matter? Thx!

Unknown said...

Hi AK

Are you vested in CDG( comfortdelgro) .Is the current price worth buying?
I intend to buy some, though it report gg to make a loss.
I am looking long term,

Thank and God bless you with good health and wealth.

victor

AK71 said...

Hi Victor,

You might have missed this blog:

Largest investments updated (4Q 2019).

I thought of adding to my investment in ComfortDelgro at the onset of the crisis but I decided to concentrate my fire power on the three local banks instead because I think they have stronger balance sheets and are better dividend payers.

Reference:
Buying DBS, OCBC, UOB and cheering for IREIT Global.

AK71 said...

Hi iwimsasl,

You might want to read these blogs:

1. Eagle Hospitality Trust: In danger of extinction?

2. LMIR: Gearing ratio and margin of safety.

Things haven't changed.

I have a legacy investment in LMIR which has been free of cost for many years but I would not add to my investment.

on9nobody said...

Will you afraid those bank susoend dividend?

"JPMorgan warns it could suspend dividend in ‘extreme’ scenario"

AK71 said...

Hi on9nobody,

Banks could suspend dividends, of course.

It isn't impossible.

However, the ability to pay dividends in the here and now is just one of the considerations.

Whether the entity is able to survive this crisis and continue to reward shareholders after the crisis is another consideration.

The second consideration is probably more important.

WTK said...

Hi AK 71,

I agree that the listed companies may suspend dividends. Having said this, I am of view that it pays to spread the eggs into many baskets so that one will not be greatly affected in the possible scenarios of reduced or no dividends in some baskets. One may have adjusted his/her expense to cater to such scenario.

My two cents worth of views.

WTK

AK71 said...

Hi WTK,

Good that you have your own plan. ;)

laurence said...

Well, FB is profit-centric. And their revenues and profits are plunging during this pandemic.
And letting banned accounts go active definitely help to reverse the ebbing tide.
This is exactly what Trump would have done!! ;)

huatster said...

AK i have not seen you talking to yourself about taking up STI ETF.
I was thinking it a safer bet but return might be somewhere 20 to 30 percent lesser than performing blue chip.Please talk to ownself 😀

AK71 said...

Hi Laurence,

Oh, is that the case? ;p

I don't know how Facebook is doing or anything but I am not really missing out on anything without Facebook in my life.

I mean if I am running my blog as a business, I can see the usefulness of Facebook but since blogging is just a hobby, not using Facebook isn't a big deal to me.

Or am I wrong?

AK71 said...

Hi huatster,

I have not had STI ETF in my portfolio before but I have been thinking about it lately.

The STI ETF isn't rocket science and so many have blogged about it already, so, no need for me to do it.

AK is lazy, you know. ;p

Anyway, you know that I think of my CPF-OA money as the risk free and volatility free AAA sovereign bond component of my portfolio.

I also said many times before that it is a war chest that I might deploy during a bear market.

Of course, the STI ETF won't be risk free and volatility free like the CPF but it is looking more inviting compared to where it was just a few months ago.

I am still sitting on the fence here because even if I do nothing, it's OK to me.

Money not made is not the same as money lost. ;p

WTK said...

Hi AK,

We can focus on the circle of influence and not the circle of concern.

Life is so complicated. Why make it even worse? Make it simple by focusing on ownself. The rest is secondary.

WTK

AK71 said...

Hi WTK,

Some people say my blogs and comments are cryptic and I think they mean they don't understand what I am saying.

They should read what you just said.

It is certainly cryptic to me. ;p

laurence said...

AK is the clairvoyant Oracle, so is naturally cryptic.
That's the nature of all Oracles. ;)

konmmo said...

Hi AK,

Assuming one's SA has reached FRS but you invest the money such that it falls below FRS. Then you top up 7k to your SA. I suppose you would be entitiled to tax relief on this contribution?

Going further, if you sell your investments during the year where you have topped up 7k as above, would the 7k then be refunded?

Thank you for talking to yourself sir.

AK71 said...

Hi Laurence,

LOL!

Thanks for that.

I had a good laugh.

Almost fell off my chair. ;p

AK71 said...

Hi konmmo,

Hmmm.

It is not something I have thought about because after the Global Financial Crisis, they made changes to the CPF Investment Scheme and there isn't anything worth investing in using money in the CPF-SA now, in my opinion.

You might want to give CPFB a call if you are still interested in investing your CPF-SA money in the very limited number of mutual funds which qualify.

konmmo said...

Thanks AK, yup had a look and the list is quite limited. May not be worth giving up the 4% risk free interest.

How are you planning your nibbling in the market? Are you doing more DCA type or based on % of market movement?

SgFire said...

AK

congrats on your ireit pick and wish you good health in this lousy times.

I can see that you no longer aggressive in the market this round of crash compare to 2008.

AK71 said...

Hi konmmo,

That's what I thought.

The 4% we get for our CPF-SA savings is hard to beat, especially when we realise we have to find something that is virtually risk free and volatility free to replicate or to beat it.

As for my plan, you might have missed my blogs prior to this one.

You might want to read those blogs if you haven't read them yet. ;)

AK71 said...

Hi SgFire,

Thank you and I certainly hope that IREIT Global continues to bring home the bacon. :)

As for whether I am no longer aggressive in the stock market, I think it is still too soon to draw any conclusion. ;p

SgFire said...

Wah AK

You sound so confidence that something bad is ahead of us.

Thats not good

Nobody said...

Hi AK,

Is it still worthwhile to buy Ireit since the price has gone up to 66.5 cents?

C said...

Dear AK,I bought some CDG at $1.95 which is about half my cash portfolio. (Not touching CPF) Wonder if I should hold on to it or sold at a loss to buy bank shares. Maybe sell half?

Nobody said...

Hi AK,

Is Ireit still a good buy with the current price of $0.67?

Anonymous said...

Hi AK,
is sgx recovering now already? the shares prices has been increasing steadily despite the announcement of circuit breaker and increase in the number of cases lately. even when the govt said this period is worse than any economic recession ever. do u think that we will experience another new low in share prices or should just buy in now?

please share your views. thanks!!

AK71 said...

Hi SgFire,

Alamak.

Did I sound confident?

I don't even know how I sound to myself.

Very cham liddat. -.-"

AK71 said...

Hi Nobody,

Is IREIT good to buy at XX cents?

You might want to read this recent blog and decide for yourself:

Largest REIT investments updated.

AK71 said...

Hi C,

Although CDG is one of my largest investments, it isn't 50% of my portfolio.

50% is huge.

If it is causing you to lose sleep, it is not good.

I decided lately not to add to my investment in CDG but to focus on the banks instead because I feel that the banks have stronger balance sheets and are likely better dividend payers, especially given the current circumstances.

Having said this, I am holding on to my investment in CDG because I do not think COVID-19 is going to be here forever.

It will take time for CDG's business to recover as public land transportation is a necessity and it is not something that is going to vanish soon.

You have to decide for yourself how comfortable you are with holding on to your investment.

AK71 said...

Hi Unknown,

Do I think we will see a new low in the stock market?

You might have missed this blog or you might want to read it again:

Buying DBS, OCBC, UOB...

My strategy has not changed.

SgFire said...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-15/banks-owed-3-billion-by-squeezed-singapore-oil-trader-hin-leong?srnd=premium-asia

Ak,

maybe u are right. No cham lah. I just poke u.

AK71 said...

Hi SgFire,

Only Mr. Market is always right, of course. ;)

Bananamint said...

Good morning AK!!! :D

Feeling very happy so just want to share some good news with you too today~

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/rapid-recovery-seen-in-coronavirus-patients-taking-gilead-drug-according-to-a-report-2020-04-16

:D

dont know why feel so happy to see some progress with covid hehehe

AK71 said...

Hi Bananamint,

I saw the news and it made me happy too. :)

Why shouldn't we feel happy to see progress in battling the COVID-19 crisis?

So many lives could have been saved if we had more effective treatment available earlier.

cheryl2010 said...

Hi AK,

As you know from latest news on REITs, one of the new rules gives Reits the option to defer dividends by 12 months after their financial year end for FY2020, instead of three months normally. This means that Reits with a FY2020 ending Dec 31, 2020 will have up to Dec 31, 2021 to distribute 90 per cent of their taxable income derived in 2020 to qualify for tax transparency.

What does that mean for REIT investors like you? That means 2020 dividends will be zero (assuming the REIT only distribute dividend in 2021) and sum of 2020 and 2021 dividends will be less than what it would be if this pandemic did not happen given that the income base of the REIT has dropped significantly?

AK71 said...

Hi cheryl2010,

I would imagine that if the REITs should defer all their distributions to 2021, if the distributable income did not go to zero due to the recession caused by the COVID-19 crisis, then, investors would get more in 2021 when distributions for both 2020 and 2021 are made together.

It is not as if the REITs don't have to distribute the income, if any, generated in 2020.

The REITs would still have to make the distributions but maybe some would opt to do it later.

This crisis shows how it can be really dangerous to assume that if we have enough passive income to cover our regular needs, we do not need an emergency fund.

I have always warned against such thinking.

You might be interested in a couple of comments I made in reply to another reader:
HERE.

cheryl2010 said...

Hi AK,

Thanks. Sorry that's what I meant, as in from a yearly cashflow perspective, 2020 you wouldn't see any dividends coming in. in 2021 you will get 2020 and 2021 divdends.

This is a very unprecedented event. Was there a similar event in 2008/2009?

AK71 said...

Hi cheryl2010,

This is the first time something like this has happened.

This is why I said that when PM Lee said the COVID-19 crisis will cause a recession that is going to be worse than the recession caused by the Global Financial Crisis, I believe him.

Things might get much worse in the months ahead.

Of course, don't be overly pessimistic nor overly optimistic.

Stay pragmatic.

Reference:
COVID-19 defeated by Mr. Market already?
"... the waves will take many, many months or more than a year or two to settle..." PM Lee.

cheryl2010 said...

Yes indeed. I wish I was born 15 years earlier like you.. much more ways to make money from property and then Fat Fire early :) Now most of us are stuck in our jobs earning slow capital to buy the right stocks to earn income. Not easy. Take care and stay safe.

HO said...

Hi AK, something i uncovered.

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/gilead-pours-cold-water-report-sent-market-soaring-anecdotal-reports-no-statistical-power

ted said...

Hi AK, where do you get your news and/or readings about stocks?

Can you share some good sources of news relevant to economic/market movements?
Thanks.

AK71 said...

Hi chery2010,

Yes, I know what you mean because, sometimes, I wish I was born 25 years earlier like my parents because it would have been even easier to make a lot of money from real estate.

Then, I think about the technology, medical science, and other stuff I have access to now at my age compared to the stuff they had when they were my age, it is a big trade off.

Well, as long as our financial health is improving over time, we are doing the right thing in this department. :)

AK71 said...

Hi HO,

Unless there is a safe and effective vaccine for COVID-19, life cannot go back to what it was before.

The stock market goes down a river of hope and climbs a wall of worries.

There is always hope that we will have a cure or a vaccine sooner than expected.

There is also the worry that things could get much worse.

The important thing for us to remember is to stay pragmatic.

Do not throw caution to the wind but, at the same time, do not hide our heads in the ground.

cheryl2010 said...

Haha AK, you too amusing. i think those born in 1970s to early 1980s had the best in terms of everything, opportunities to make money were aplenty, the chances of winning / earning more money were higher.. just looking at people in my industry, the pay gap between those who already started out a few years before 2008 crisis versus those started out after the crisis is huge...

all the more saving, investing, living below our means is important. as we can lose our jobs or things like this pandemic can happens and shit happens.. :)

AK71 said...

Hi ted,

I simply read the news when I feel like it, really.

I have to admit that I do not do it as much as I used to.

The Business Times is good for daily news.

You might also want to subscribe to The EDGE, a weekly publication.

AK71 said...

Hi cheryl2010,

I didn't think I was being funny in my reply but sometimes I don't know I am funny.

So, maybe, I was. ;p

Yes, shit happens and sometimes it hits the fan.

For some, just putting food on the table is a challenge.

Some don't even have a table.

Those who have been too adventurous with money during good times should beware.

“It's only when the tide goes out that you learn who's been swimming naked.”
- Warren Buffett

AK71 said...

"Singapore will extend a partial lockdown until June 1 to curb a sharp rise in coronavirus infections in the city-state, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said on Tuesday."

Source:
https://news.yahoo.com/singapore-extend-partial-lockdown-four-092738093.html

cheryl2010 said...

Hi AK, because we will forever be able to find a generation which we envy. In your case, your parent's generation. Grass is always greener on the other side. Take care and stay safe. :) Till then!!!

Unknown said...

Hi AK

What do you think of KepPacOakReitUSD ?

It dividend very attractive..

Will you buy thia?

God bless you.

victor

Unknown said...

Dormitory is on spot light now.
How will this impact centurion?

Peach MilkTea said...

Hi AK, do you think MAS will suspend DBS license https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/reits/what-did-urban-commons-do-proceeds-eagles-ipo and will the share price seriously impacted?

AK71 said...

Hi cheryl2010,

Envy is a green faced monster that must be vanquished. ;)

Make our own fortunes.

Take care and stay safe. :)

AK71 said...

Hi Victor,

My plate is full.

Not looking at anything other than those in my list. ;)

AK71 said...

Hi Unknown,

You might want to direct the question to Centurion. :)

I don't run the business. ;p

AK71 said...

Hi PeachMilkTea,

Will MAS suspend DBS' license?

I don't know if they would do that but it is pretty unlikely, in my opinion.

Will DBS share price be seriously impacted because of this?

Only Mr. Market has the answer to that one. ;)

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