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Sunday, January 31, 2010

Done my weekly reading of The EDGE.  Goola Warden, Darryl Guppy and Michael Kahn are people whose articles I enjoy reading.  I have also learned a lot about TA from their writings.  In this issue of The EDGE, all of them have gone decidedly bearish about the prospects of global stock markets.  My own reading of the STI shows that the uptrend is still intact but the index is in a rather dicey situation should it not confirm the reversal signal seen in the last session.  With the US market closing in the red in the last session, the STI has to look to the SSE and HSI for leadership and we might agree that it is not all that promising.

So, what are we to do?  I have taken much of my profit off the table three weeks ago.  I have been averaging back into the market as prices came down to supports.  Looking ahead, I plan to continue accumulating high yielding counters at attractive valuations.  This remains the core of my investment strategy as my long term aim is to acquire a reliable passive income stream from high yields.

Which high yields would I want to accumulate?  After all, you might remember that I revealed a long list of high yields which I currently own.  Please see:  Grow your wealth and beat inflation.

One high yield which I have been constantly accumulating and will continue to do so is Saizen REIT.  Amongst the S-REITs, it is hard to find another REIT with as compelling a valuation. Having said that, there are a few others which I am keen on and I will keep an eye on.  They are AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, LMIR and Suntec REIT.  Any decline in unit prices of these REITs will be an opportunity for me to further secure yields of >10% p.a. from various sources.

I would be looking out for opportunities to partially divest my remaining investment in Healthway Medical as I stated in a comment to this post: Healthway Medical: Dwindling volume.  I said: "Healthway Medical does look like it is suffering from fatigue of late. With more shares being issued and with the lower target price by DMG, it is probably difficult for the counter to form a new high anytime soon."

I will also be keeping an eye on Golden Agriculture.  If the 100dMA support at 48c breaks, it is very bearish.  Any move up towards the 20dMA at 56c in the near future provides an opportunity to reduce exposure.

I still like the long term fundamentals of Healthway Medical and Golden Agriculture.  However, as Darryl Guppy expressed so well: "Markets are efficient at recording the emotional behaviour of participants.  They are less efficient at reflecting the economic fundamentals."  I have also said that it is important to know when to buy but it is also important to know when to sell: Rationale for partial divestment.

Good luck in the new week!

5 comments:

said...

Hi, I find your blog to be interesting and informative. These are some of my views.

I maintain that we are still in a bear market. The next 2 weeks will be very important for the STI to determine the direction of the trend. It won't be good if it cannot recapture the 100 day MA.

Also a bearish crossover of the 34 day EMA over the 13 day EMA was recently seen on the STI on 27 Jan 2010. The last time this happened was on 15 Jan 2009 and the STI subsequently declined by 15%.

Also take a look at this blog post (US blog) on why he is bearish in the long run.

http://marketthoughtsandanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/08/long-view.html

AK71 said...

Hi Hubert,

Yes, the US is still in a secular bear market. The rally which took place since the lows of March 09 is a cyclical bull market.

The STI is currently in a correction and if it does not recapture the 100dMA, yes, there is more downside to come.

Thanks for the constructive comment and come back again soon.

said...

I just started a new blog. Do take a look and link me..

AK71 said...

A link exchange? Sure. Check out my blog roll. :)

said...

thanks..


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