Asian markets made huge retreats today. HSI and STI are down by 2.38% and 2.54% respectively. The Shanghai Composite is down 2.42% while Taiwan is down by a whopping 3.48%! European markets are all in the red right at this moment.
Where are the supports for the STI? I identified two levels of support for the STI in a previous post. With today's close at 2,740, we are sitting right on the first level of support. Please see:. STI: How low can it go?
With the retreat in the STI happening with such magnitude and strength today, as could be seen in the high trading volume, the next support which is a band between 2,680 to 2,700 could be tested next.
Healthway Medical started the day at 18c only to touch a low of 16.5c before closing at 17c. MFI is declining which suggests that buying momentum is weakening. Price action is directionless at the moment at best.
Golden Agriculture closed at 50.5c as it crashed through the supports at 51.5c and 51c. My overnight buy queues at those levels were filled. The next support level is at 50c, a many times tested candlestick resistance turned support. This support level is critical. . We might see a whipsaw if this support level holds. The rising 100dMA is at 48c.
Saizen REIT's price action formed a solid black candle as it closed at 16c, below the rising 20dMA. My overnight buy queue at 16c was filled. The rising 50dMA will provide near term support at 15.5c next. The pullback is on relatively low volume with. the MFI declining to 50%. The fundamentals have not changed and I will accumulate at the next support level.
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STI and 3 counters
Tuesday, January 26, 2010Posted by AK71 at 6:11 PM
Labels:
Golden Agriculture,
Healthway Medical,
Saizen REIT,
STI,
TA
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2 comments:
Hi, i just chanced upon ur blog yesterday.
Do you think Saizen REIT is still a BUY given the S&P's revision of Japan's 2010 outlook and the drop in the Yen overnight? Does that temper ur enthusiasm about Saizen or make u more excited becoz it will become a bigger bargain?
Hi CT,
Welcome and I hope you enjoyed your first visit to my blog. :)
Yes, the Japanese economy has some problems. Its population is shrinking which affects domestic consumption negatively. The Yen is very high, although it came down a little in recent weeks, and that has deflationary effects and makes Japanese exports expensive.
The "revolution" that transferred power from the LDP to the DPJ has not produced the desired results. In fact, the Japanese people seem to be getting more of the same.
I am somewhat worried about the Japanese economy over the longer term. However, in the immediate and near future, things are not going to change drastically.
Housing is a basic need. Saizen REIT owns residential real estate in Japan which are targetted at singles and small families. Demand is likely to stay resilient as could be seen in Saizen REIT's numbers as occupancy remains firmly above 90% even through the financial crisis. With the Japanese people's preference to rent rather than own their homes, occupancy is likely to remain high.
Saizen REIT is undervalued in terms of P/B ratio. The NAV, using the worst possible scenario, should be about 29c. Its gearing is reducing over time and in the most optimistic scenario, it might get to be less than 20%. It will, very likely, start paying out distributions again from middle of this year. In the near term, this is definitely still a buy for me and I have put my money where my mouth is. :)
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