Posts
Healthway Medical: A low volume black candle day as price closed unchanged at 16.5c. MFI continues to decline and a lower low is a forgone conclusion, suggesting that the buying momentum is weakening yet again. OBV has flattened and this suggests a temporary respite from distribution activities. 16c remains the support to watch.
CapitaMalls Asia: $2.32. I did a FA for this counter recently when a reader asked me about it. This is the first time I am doing a TA for this counter as I think it is beginning to look interesting technically. The counter is fundamentally strong and, technically, I see a fairly good entry price at $2.30.
Looking at the OBV, it is fairly obvious that distribution peaked on 11 Feb 10. There has been a slow but gradual accumulation since then. Despite a sharp decline in the MFI since 12 Mar 10, the OBV has been rising gradually. This suggests that even as the buying momentum declines, the weakness is being seized to accumulate more shares here as weak holders sell out.
Price action went momentarily below the trendline support today which is almost where the 50dMA is at $2.30. $2.30 is also the 50% Fibo support. There is a good chance that the price will move higher from here as the 20dMA is rising and there is an uptrend channel since the price bottomed in February at $2.19. The target of the next move up could be estimated by looking at the trendline resistance which I have drawn by connecting the two recent highs. In time, we could expect the top of a larger base formation at $2.55 to be tested.
Downside seems limited. In the event that the price moves lower, supports are at $2.28 and $2.25, the 38.2% and 23.6% Fibo lines.
Bloggy Award
10 comments:
Maybe you want to comment on this? http://www.greenpeace.org/international/news/Nestle-needs-to-give-rainfores
Sinar Mas is a subsidary of Golden-Agri.
Hi Anonymous,
OCBC Investment Research summed it up quite nicely:
"While Sinar Mas Agro Resources & Technology (SMART) did not reveal how much Nestle contributed to its sales, we understand that
it is likely pretty insignificant at less than 0.5% of overall sales; this as the group sells most of its CPO to customers in China
and India, where demand for CPO is expected to track the rapid urbanization in these countries. As such, the financial impact from the latest development, if any, will probably be very limited for GAR...."
Hi AK, seems like MACD went under Signal after today's session. The last time that happened was on March 12th, before it went on a decent run. Your thoughts on this?
Hi Pathfinder,
Technically, when the MACD goes under the signal line, it's a bearish signal but you probably know that the MACD is a lagging indicator anyway.
For me, the fact that the MFI and OBV do not show obvious downward pressure and the fact that the 20dMA seems to be supporting the price give me some measure of confidence that the underlying support is rather strong.
I am not a very good trader and can never feel comfortable enough with only TA. I am emboldened by FA, which shows that Golden Agriculture provides value, to buy at the supports identified. :)
Thanks for the update AK. I guess only fools rush in, and I joined their party at $0.565. Looking for an opportunity to exit at $0.585 and perhaps buy more at support.
CapitalMalls seems an interesting counter, shall research and feedback later if I have time. Day job next ;-)
Hi Pathfinder,
Buying some Golden Agriculture at 56.5c looks ok to me as it is just 2 bids above initial support at 55.5c. If price moves lower, I would buy more at supports too. :)
$2.30 for CapitaMalls Asia is holding up well so far. I have bought some.
I look forward to hearing from you agin. :)
Bought some Golden Agri at 54c on last Thursday. Queued at 54.5c just before market closed but realised that I got them at 54c instead, probably occurred during the pre-close trading session.
Hi RK,
Golden Agriculture is still the least expensive CPO company listed in Singapore in terms of valuation. At 54c, you are buying at a PE of 7.7x and a 15% discount to NAV. Of course, its very low gearing of about 6% is attractive too. :)
I am a fan! Interesting TA though much of it is Greek to me. Golden Agri and Healthway interest me. Thanks for the tips.
Hi Roger,
I did not provide any tips. Just some analyses. ;) In any case, I'm glad you find the TA interesting.
You might want to read up a bit on TA and it would not be Greek to you anymore then. It is useful knowledge and is, in fact, necessary if you want to be a better investor or trader. :)
Post a Comment