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Well, the initial resistance of 17c was not overcome. In the last session, Saizen REIT closed at 16.5c after touching a low of 16c, forming a dragonfly doji. OBV is flat which suggests a lack of significant distribution or accumulation. The MFI has dipped into oversold territory. MACD's sell signal has not been reversed. Lethargy is a signature of Saizen REIT's price action.
I have drawn a trendline resistance connecting recent highs and a trendline support connecting recent lows. What looks like a symmetrical triangle took shape with its apex sometime in April. Symmetrical triangles are not the most reliable patterns in charting but, if valid, a price action in the prevailing trend is not far off. In this case, the trend is UP. The ascending MAs make this quite obvious.
My decision to accumulate Saizen REIT from 13c to the current price is informed by a thorough FA with the understanding that it is terribly undervalued. Even if the REIT's portfolio of YK Shintoku were to be foreclosed and even after all the warrants are converted into regular units, Saizen REIT would still have a NAV of 29c per unit. At 16.5c, it is still a good 43% discount to NAV. I have blogged about this quite extensively and shan't dwell on the fundamentals too much in this post but I will say this again, "Think contrarian!"
A video interview with Marc Faber (Posted Mar 12, 2010 07:30am EST by Peter Gorenstein):
"If you are going to put money to work in stocks both market watchers think Japan is the place to be. After a 20 year bear market and despite high-debt-to-GDP levels, the pair think the market has become too cheap to ignore. Always a contrarian, Faber believes the lack of interest in Japanese stocks makes it one of the most compelling buys in the world. "
Related posts:
Saizen REIT: Obvious uptrend.
Passive income with high-yields: Saizen REIT.
Japan's debt issue and Saizen REIT.
Bloggy Award
6 comments:
hi ak,
for the past week, credit lyonnais has been the relentless seller. someone was supporting it though and i am guessing it is UBS.
cheers dp
Hi DP,
Thanks for sharing this. I bought from UOB KayHian in the last session.
AK,
I hesitate to read too deeply into to Saizen's candlestick patterns given the low volumes and low daily price range - with a relatively small sum of money you should be able to "paint" any candlestick pattern you want by simply buying or selling at the pre-close session.
My observation notwithstanding, I enjoy reading your blog and as I have mentioned previously, I hold a significant investment in Saizen warrants.
AT
Hi AT,
A most valid point on the dangers of doing TA for Saizen REIT given the thin trading volumes. That is also why I keep emphasising that my decision to stay vested in the REIT is informed by a thorough FA. :)
Thanks for visiting regularly and I look forward to hearing from you again.
Hi AK, anyone knows how much the CMBS loan in YK Shintoku is trading to par?
Hi Anonymous,
Unfortunately, I do not have the information you seek. Perhaps, you could call Saizen REIT's manager and see if they know anything.
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