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I mentioned on Sunday that First REIT could see 77c tested soon and it did so with aplomb today. Indeed, it went on to close higher at 79c on the back of much higher volume with a total of 3,413 lots changing hands.
With 1,022 lots bought up at 79c after the market closed, there is a good chance that price could test resistance provided by the declining 200dMA at 80c in the next session. Actually, to be exact, the 200dMA would be at 80.5c in the next session and that is also where we find the 161.8% Fibo line. 80c is where we find the 150% Fibo line.
Today, I sold some units at 77c and at 79c, respectively the immediate resistance and 2 bids lower than the resistance at 80c identified in my previous blog post on the REIT. Selling at resistance is conventional wisdom but in an uptrend we could see resistance become support. The bearish divergence between the CMF and price action has been negated with today's explosive move upwards in price. Buying pressure has intensified suddenly and fiercely. Could 77c become the new support? Would I continue to sell more?
The 200dMA is a long term moving average and I expect it to provide significant resistance. At 80c, we would also see distribution yield of First REIT decline to just 8%. Beyond 80c, its yield falls below 8%. I would queue to sell some at 80c and 80.5c but I would not divest fully on the off chance that price action might overcome resistance provided by the 200dMA and push higher.
Related post:
First REIT: Partial divestment?
Bloggy Award
2 comments:
First Real Estate Investment Trust says it has been included in the MSCI Singapore Index with effect from 1 June 2011
Hi Anonymous,
That is good news indeed. :)
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