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3Q 2023 passive income: Stronger yet again!

Thursday, October 5, 2023

For readers who have been following my blog consistently, the title of this blog post might invoke a feeling of deja vu.

It is rather similar to the title of my blog post 3 months ago in which I shared my 2Q 2023 results.

That said "Stronger again!"

This says "Stronger yet again!"

AK is so creative!

Well, jokes aside, I really couldn't think of anything more impactful and accurate at the same time.

For those who follow my YouTube channel, this video might look familiar:




Yes, for the first time in a long time, I shared some numbers before the quarter was up.

With that kind of number after only 2 months into the quarter, I could tell that 3Q 2023 would probably beat my passive income received in 2Q 2023.

In the third month of 3Q 2023, income distributions from my investments in many REITs came in.

Although there was a decline in income received from REITs as a whole which was not unexpected given that three of my largest investments in S-REITs paid less, overall passive income for 3Q 2023 still came in higher.

This is thanks in a large part to the much higher dividends paid out by DBS, OCBC and UOB which are all in my list of largest investments in my portfolio.




Decision to increase exposure to OCBC and UOB from time to time since the pandemic has been very rewarding while the decision to stay invested in IREIT Global has not been as rewarding.

Still, I am of the opinion that IREIT Global has room to grow its revenue and that the REIT is in the process of transformation.

There could be some bumps ahead and investors might want to buckle up.

IREIT Global is undervalued if the 6 months lease extension at a 45% higher asking rent for its Berlin asset is anything to go by.

Unlike some REITs like Manulife US REIT, IREIT Global is not in distress even though its unit price suggests that it could be so.

Unfortunately, the aggressive and rapid hikes in interest rates are not friendly to REITs, especially with the "higher for longer" narrative gaining traction.

Still, with a relatively strong balance sheet, substantial sponsor interest and a capable management, I am willing to wait while I am being paid.

This will be short blog post as I do not want to rehash stuff I have said about my investments before.




Oops.

I almost forgot.

So, what is my 3Q 2023 passive income?

In the video I shared at the beginning of this blog post, I said that 3Q 2023 passive income would probably exceed $80,000.

The actual number is:

S$ 84,942.36

This is almost 12% higher than the $75,989.50 in 3Q 2022.

I think I have beaten inflation in 3Q 2023.

Back in 3Q 2022, I said I was stunned like vegetable, and I feel the same way one year later.

What am I doing, going forward?

The next 6 months will see much lower passive income being received without contributions from OCBC, UOB and many other investments.

So, I am going to be extra careful with money.




What about the investment front?

I am staying invested because I cannot tell if the market is going up or down.

Staying invested in bona fide income producing assets means being paid while I wait.

Filling up my war chest for when Mr. Market becomes depressed again.

This is even as my war chest will grow much slower than before as more of my passive income will be consumed from this year on.

I cannot predict but I can most certainly prepare.

If AK can do it, so can you!

References:
1. 2Q 2023 passive income.
2. 3Q 2022 passive income.

24 comments:

Amos TEO said...

Hi AK

Congratz on your improved Q3 results.

Yes, Reits were getting beaten down hard these 2 months especially.

Your fav iReit Global is 5c off the Right Issue Price, are you still staying on the sideline and or like you mentioned in your previous post that you will be strong enough to buy at pandemic level and beg your war chest for money?

I initiated a small position today at 36c.

AK71 said...

Hi Amos,

I wouldn't say that IREIT Global is my favorite.

My favorite is the REIT that is giving me free money, AIMS APAC REIT. ;p

It is just that IREIT Global is better value for money than AIMS APAC REIT now from a balance sheet and asset value angle.

The day when IREIT Global is giving me free money, it can be my second favorite. ;)

Unfortunately, the current environment is not friendly towards REITs and this is likely to persist with the "higher for longer" narrative playing out.

REITs were holding on for rate cuts to start next year but it doesn't seem likely now.

Things change and my strategy has to change too.

I will be producing a video on this tomorrow or the day after. :)

Amos TEO said...

Oh yea free one is the always the favourite and its price is pretty steady if we exclude the effect of the placement.

iREIT Glb also free, free falling from 50c.. But continue to nibble if Mr Market decides to hammer it downwards since it has a strong balance sheet and low interest rate till 2026.

Looking forward to your video release.

AK71 said...

Hi Amos,

The video will be about my strategy when it comes to all REITs.

Risk free rates staying higher for longer is a given now.

My recent research suggests that interest rates could actually go higher from here.

That is the biggest bug bear now.

I believe that it is this possibility that has been spooking Mr. Market in recent days.

Anyway, I will elaborate in the video. :)

Ryan said...

Can you talk to yourself about Wilmar and Venture? Thanks.

AK71 said...

Hi Ryan,

I have blogged about Wilmar many times before and my thesis has not changed.

Wilmar is very undervalued and I would like to add more if it should ever retreat to $3.50 or lower per share.

I have not looked at Venture before in detail.

So, nothing to say. ;p

Ryan said...

Thanks. Wilmar has high debt in excess of $31b. May i check why the high debt doesn't seem to be a major concern to you?

VT said...

Hi AK, looking forward to ur next post, CICT/Fraser Centrepoint all moving downwards.. how low can it get? hmm... changing world, changing signs... suddenly keep thinking of that phrase (margin of safety)

AK71 said...

Hi Ryan,

Mr. Kuok explained before that much of Wilmar's debt is a trading facility.

Wilmar engages in commodity trading.

So, you will see that its debt level varies from quarter to quarter when they do reporting.

When they have more trading activity, there is more debt.

When they have less trading activity, there is less debt.

It isn't anything long term or crippling. :)

AK71 said...

Hi VT,

I suppose you are referring to the YouTube video on REITs which I have promised Amos. ;)

Yes, it is scheduled for tomorrow at the usual time. :)

Things different already and all REITs are getting hit.

MilkTeaBro said...

Singapore local banks are likely getting peak profits in coming years. Interest profits drop and economic recession are expected in year 2024.

tan said...

hi AK,

read from analyst report(forgot which one) that said if Berlin tenant decide not to cont with the lease, it will undergo some AEI at berlin asset which will take around 1-2 years. so there will be no income from the berlin asset. not sure how true is that. but would like to hear your thought on this.

AK71 said...

Hi MilkTeaBro,

That could be the case.

So, don't be overly optimistic.

AK71 said...

Hi tan,

That could happen.

I produced 2 videos on REITs this evening.

You might want to head over to my YouTube channel to listen in. ;)

MilkTeaBro said...

Would you like to hold local bank to get dividend? Or reduce position to lock profits?

AK71 said...

Hi MilkTeaBro,

That sounds like market timing and I am awful at that. ;p

I like being paid regularly. :)

Still, I could change my mind. ;)

cheryl2010 said...

Hi AK :)
Wilmar is $3.45 on Friday 20 Oct :)
Can you talk to yourself if we should add if we have positions (in red)?

AK71 said...

Hi Cheryl,

It looks like $3.00 is next unless it is able to recapture $3.50 as support.

cheryl2010 said...

$3 does not seem very far away... hope my itchy fingers can wait :)

Nel said...

Hi AK,

I started reading your blog when I was much younger but forgot about it as the years went by. For close to 10 years, I followed the "buy the index" advice and made monthly investments in STI ETFs and the ABF SG bond ETF. This came to a halt during the pandemic. Stopped the monthly investments and even sold some of my holdings when I thought I should "accumulate dry powder" to take advantage of any opportunity.

Then I got sucked into Shiny Crypto and well... that was where all the powder went. And I became a lost wandering sheep.

My current portfolio consists of >50% crypto, and some ETFs like IWDA, HST and the ABF SG bond ETF which I've accumulated from the past. Just as I thought about rebuilding my portfolio, I came across your podcast with The Fifth Person, which brought me back to your blog.

Your diary is very interesting and I'm inspired by your approach and outcomes (ok.. mostly outcomes lah). And, I want to build an income portfolio for myself too. Sorry for eavesdropping, but I accidentally heard you say that you have large holdings in IREIT Global and AIMS APAC REIT. Would these be a good place to start? Also, what are your views on REITS ETF such as Lion-Phillip S-REIT?

AK71 said...

Hi Cheryl,

To be honest, I think $3.50 is a pretty good price.

It is just that Mr. Market can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent.

So, if I were to buy, I would not throw in everything including the kitchen sink because $3 is a distinct possibility.

I hope you know what I am saying. ;)

AK71 said...

Hi Nel,

Welcome back to ASSI. :)

Things have changed a lot in 10 years. ;)

You might want to watch all my YouTube videos released in the last 2 to 3 months, especially the ones on REITs and the banks.

Then, draw your own conclusions.

You might have forgotten that I am not allowed to give advice. ;p

Nel said...

Thanks, AK :) I watched a few of your YouTube videos during my AK binge today.
I must say that the later videos that were narrated by you are much better than the earlier ones that were read by some robot. Keep them coming!

AK71 said...

Hi Nel,

Thanks for letting me know that you are enjoying the videos.

I won't be producing videos as frequently for a while though.

So, it is fortunate that you are new to my blog and channel, and have plenty of past content to binge on. ;p


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