China Minzhong: Share price to go higher.

Templeton International, Inc. became a substantial shareholder of China Minzhong last year in May 2012. Their additional purchase of 980 lots at 84.56c a share pushed their ownership from 4.91% to 5.08% of the company.

As of 10 Dec 2012, Templeton owns some 13.05% of China Minzhong's common stocks. They bought more when the share price sank and they have also been buying as share price recovered. They are accumulating continually and some might even say, aggressively.

Dr. Mark Mobius of the Templeton Emerging Markets Group said this on 11 Dec 2012:

Successful investing is not only about picking the right stocks, but also finding values others may not recognize. We think the best way to determine if a stock is a value really boils down to growth.

During market downturns many stocks can be cheap, but if there is no future growth potential, than that stock could be considered a value trap. If a company is inexpensive and growing (and our earnings projections for it look good), then there can be a good case to invest.

When the current market isn’t recognizing this potential and we’re able to buy stocks at a discount to what we think they’ll be worth five years out, then that’s where we see value.

During a severe market downturn, you’ve got to be willing to go into the market, then wait. The global market downturn in 2008-2009 is a good example of this.

Patience and a willingness to go against the crowd mentality is a very difficult thing for most investors to do, but we believe it is critical as a long-term investor.

It is also interesting that China Minzhong was mentioned in an email sent out by The EDGE.

Apparently, the Australian investment bank, Macquarie, thinks that China Minzhong is a prime beneficiary of the country’s move to modernise and promote large-scale farming under the Five-Year Plan.

“Its large-scale vegetables origination and processing business in China is well poised to grow given the burgeoning population and increasing urbanisation trend,” says Macquarie, which has a $1.40 price target on the counter.

I like the fundamentals of China Minzhong but I am also corrupted by technical analysis. So, looking at the chart, I see a natural resistance level at 99c, give or take a couple of cents, which must be overcome convincingly before we could see the next resistance level tested.

The last session's high volume white candle tested the immediate resistance level but failed to take it out. Could it happen next Monday?

In case of a retracement, I expect strong support to be provided by the rising 100d MA. That support if ever re-tested would be where I would buy more.

Related post:
China Minzhong: What are we to do?

Wilmar, China Minzhong and Sound Global.

Wilmar's share price could not overcome the resistance provided by the descending 200d MA. Look out for a retest of the support which approximates the 100d MA at $3.20. I would buy more if that should be tested.

China Minzhong's share price has established 86.5c as the resistance to watch. There is still a chance of a pull back to support provided by the rising 100d MA. I have sold some at resistance as a hedge and if support should be tested, I would probably buy more. Breaking resistance at 86.5c could see share price heading towards $1.00.

Two dojis in a row suggest indecision on the part of Mr. Market with Sound Global although a higher high on the MACD suggests a strong positive momentum and we could see price pushing higher. Expecting a band of resistance from 68c to 70c while expecting a band of support from 59c to 61.5c.

Related posts:
1. Wilmar: Testing resistance with strong momentum.
2. China Minzhong: What are we to do?
3. Sound Global: Another resistance level broken.

China Minzhong: What are we to do?

Some might wonder if it is time to sell shares of China Minzhong and to lock in some sizeable gains. Well, it is back to the basic question of: "What are we after?"

If we believe that China Minzhong's shares are still undervalued, then, fundamentally, it is not the time to sell. However, if we do not care about fundamentals and are in it for a trade, then, that is a different motive which would dictate that we act differently.

To any casual observer, it is obvious that China Minzhong's share price is having difficulty breaking resistance to go higher. Look at the daily chart and we can see why.

Daily chart.

China Minzhong's price movement seems to be losing momentum as the MACD forms lower highs and the CMF shows money flowing out. Continuing price weakness in the near term is not surprising.

Indeed, price could weaken to support at 80c which is where we find the merged 50d and 20d MAs. A much stronger twice tested support is quite obviously provided by the fast rising 100d MA. In the event of a whipsaw in a correction, this MA could be tested once again for support.

Weekly chart.

For someone with a longer term perspective, no analysis is complete without looking at the weekly chart and bulls would like what they see there. Quite obviously, there is a break out from resistance and where is the next resistance level? The descending 100w MA currently at $1.05? Possibly. Immediate support is at 78c. Do a quick risk/reward analysis and it would seem that being long China Minzhong makes more sense in the longer term.

Ultimately, what we decide to do depends on our motivation for being vested as well as our risk appetite. Remember, TA is about probability and never certainty.

Related post:
A Christmas collection of charts.


Technical Analysis For Dummies dumps the confusing jargon and unreadable charts for basic explanations and practical guidance.


Go to:
Technical Analysis for Dummies

A Christmas collection of charts.

Hello Kitty Christmas Tree!
Minneapolis - St. Paul International Airport

It is now the evening of Christmas and I have spent Christmas Eve and the whole of Christmas Day at home. I slept a lot and drank a lot of herbal tea. I ate mostly porridge. You guessed it. I am ill.

Here are some charts and my gut feel. Not much rigour but in the spirit of Christmas, I hope readers would be a bit more forgiving.

Target: 28c.

Target: 42c.

Target: $1.10

Target: $3.90

Target: 62.5c

Target: 83c

Take note that these are weekly charts and I am not expecting to make any fast money.

Ho, ho, ho! Merry Christmas!

China Minzhong: Gap down black candle day.

China Minzhong's share price gapped down today and formed a long black candle on the back of very high volume.

Apparently, "one party sold 57.23 million shares at S$0.80 each.

"A trader said one of China Minzhong's shareholders had sold its entire stake in the company through a private placement.

"According to Thomson Reuters data, Olympus Capital Holdings Asia, is the company's third largest shareholder, with 57.23 million shares or a 10.3 per cent stake.

Franklin Templeton Investments Corp is the second largest shareholder with a 12.2 per cent stake, or 68.13 million shares." (Source: REUTERS, 6 Dec 12.)

I do not know why the investor decided to sell especially when the fundamentals of the company have been improving. However, if there is no material deterioration in fundamentals, this correction is an opportunity to accumulate shares of the company cheaper.

Technically, the negative divergence between the share price and MACD is playing out. So, it is not as if we didn't get some kind of warning. However, the intensity of the decline has been stunning.

I decided to draw a Fibo Fan and it is interesting to see how nicely the 38.2% Fibo line approximates the rising 100d MA. 38.2% is a golden ratio but with such a high volume sell down today, we could see persistent weakness tomorrow. If immediate support should be compromised, then, we could see a test of the next two golden ratios of 50% and 61.8% for support.

Related post:
China Minzhong: Accumulate on weakness.

China Minzhong: Accumulate on weakness.

There are a few stocks which I would like to accumulate on weakness in the near term. China Minzhong is one such stock.

Many like Jim Rogers have put forth a convincing case of an impending food crisis. In the event of global food shortages, it is logical to expect food prices to rise. So, investing in food producers seems to make good sense.

Improving numbers, insider buying, an experienced management and the right industry, I believe China Minzhong is a good company to invest in. Also, there could be more positive catalysts and these could push its share price higher.

After hitting a low of 53c in early June, its share price rose to hit a high of 87.5c on 19 Oct. That is a meteoric 65% increase in a short span of 4 months.

The daily chart is showing some fatigue. Some consolidation is to be expected. The immediate support is at 78c. If that should go, next supports are at 74c and 70c. The MACD which is a pure price oscillator suggests that supports could continue to be tested. However, the Chaikin Money Flow does not show any significant outflow of funds which suggests that long holders are not in any hurry to sell. We could see share price doing what Daryl Guppy calls a correction using time which means people waiting on the side hoping to get back in when there is a price correction could be disappointed.

The weekly chart shows quite clearly that the downtrend has reversed. Breaking immediate support could see share price declining to test the 20w MA in the longer term. This currently approximates 71c. As the 20w MA is rising, the longer term support would be a higher value over time. The declining 100w MA, currently at $1.10, could cap any further price increase in the near future.

Buying when there is a test of supports with longer term MAs rising seems like a good idea. However, remember, TA shows where the supports and resistance are but it does not mean that they will be tested.

Related post:
China Minzhong: Opportunity in slowing momentum.

“If food inflation in China remains high, there is a high chance that the management’s revenue target (of 15% growth) could be surpassed.” Maybank-KE keeps a Buy call with $1.16 target. Read full article in The EDGE.

China Minzhong: Opportunity in slowing momentum.

A big part of my portfolio is invested for income while the remainder is invested for capital gains. In both instances, once I stop adding to my long positions, the main thing to do is to wait. Wait to collect regular income in the first instance and wait to lock in gains in the second.

I will have more income distributions from S-REITs in November and December. Possibly, there will be dividends to be collected from some stocks as well. I am not too sure as I have not noted the precise dates for some time now.

I also invested in a few stocks, believing that they could deliver some nice capital gains. One such stock is China Minzhong and the last time I blogged about it was about a month ago, declaring that its stock price was emerging from a downtrend. Since then, its stock price has moved to touch a high of 85c.

OBV shows continuing accumulation while the RSI shows the formation of higher lows. There is some support. However, the lower high on the MACD which formed as a higher high formed in stock price, together with the reducing volume as price pushed higher, suggest a weaker positive momentum.

A rising wedge also seems to have formed and this suggests that the stock price could see a retreat in the near term. However, wedges are not terribly reliable patterns and the bearish signal we see here could be negated if volume should simply expand with an upward movement in stock price.

In the event that the rising wedge should deliver, we could expect a correction to see the share price retreat to 68.5c thereabouts. Before that, we could see some support at 75c. The immediate support is at 80c.

The weekly chart is somewhat more encouraging as the MACD has just moved into positive territory. Unlike the daily chart, there is no negative divergence observed here. The longer term picture suggests that any pull back in price is an opportunity to accumulate. The 100w MA, approximately at $1.10 now, could put an eventual cap to any upward movement in stock price in case it should happen.

Related post:
China Minzhong: Emerging from a down trend.

China Minzhong: Emerging from a down trend.

The last time I blogged about China Minzhong, I said that the longer term downtrend was still intact. Has this changed? Yes, it broke out of this downtrend middle of August and briefly went under the trend line in early September.

Both MACD and MFI have formed higher lows. Breaking the down trend with stronger positive momentum is good news for the bulls. Now, all eyes would be on 78.5c, the recent high of 23 August as well as the declining 200d MA at 80c. If price action is able to break these resistance levels and move higher, we could see a move to test a band of resistance between 88c to 94c.

In case of further weakness, I see support at 66c, provided by the 50d MA. Stronger support is at 63c, the top of a 5 months base formation (March to August 2012). I would be accumulating on weakness.

------------------------

We expect higher operating cash flow and less Capex in FY13, thus the first positive free cash flow in three years. We cannot rule out the possibility that Minzhong will pay dividends or buy back shares in FY13. Although we have not put in any dividends payments or share buyback forecast as our base case, we believe such actions will boost the valuation if they eventuate. (Kim Eng, 28 August 2012)

Related post:
China Minzhong: Pushing higher.

China Minzhong: Pushing higher.

To any chart watchers, it is obvious that China Minzhong's share price has broken out of resistance.  From here the immediate resistance is provided by the declining 100dMA which is currently at 73c. It could approximate 72c in the next few sessions.

Overcoming the 100dMA could see a test of resistance provided by the 200dMA which is also declining but more gently so. The 200dMA is at 83c. The last time the 200dMA was tested was earlier this year in February.

With all the momentum oscillators up sharply, the worst is over for China Minzhong's share price, it would seem. MACD suggests a return of positive momentum. MFI suggests demand is stronger. OBV suggests robust and continuing accumulation.

It has to be said that a longer term downtrend that started in early 2011 is still intact. So, traders ought to be careful and watch the longer term resistance.

Related post:
China Minzhong: Crossroads.

China Minzhong: Crossroads.

China Minzhong's share price has been forming a base. It is clear that immediate support is now provided by the 20dMA which has stopped declining and is, in fact, gently rising. A rising MFI suggests that there is an underlying and growing demand while the sharply rising OBV suggests that smart money is moving back into the counter as its share price moves sideways with an upward bias.

The MACD, although rising, is still in negative territory. However, this could change soon as it could cross into positive territory next week, everything remaining constant. Could a change in trend take place soon? It looks possible.

The 50dMA is still declining sharply and we should see it crossing the 20dMA in the next week or so. If the share price is able to stay above the 50dMA then, we could see much more room for moving upwards.

A major resistance would be a gap fill at 82c which, incidentally is where the 100dMA and the 261.8% Fibo line are approximating. Before that, however, I expect resistance to manifest at 71c which is where the 161.8% Fibo line approximates.

Immediate support is at 59c thereabouts.

China Minzhong: High volume white candle day.

Having added to my long position in China Minzhong recently, believing that it was not a time to sell, I am pleased to say that I seem to be on the same page as Mr. Market now.

I added more to my long position today as share price broke resistance provided by the 20dMA at 57c on the back of very high volume in the morning. Volume is the fuel that drives rallies and the high volume breakout could see some follow through.

Fundamentally undervalued, China Minzhong was, technically, also very oversold. However, with the relentless selling by Mr. Market and decline in share price, the technicals are pretty damaged and it would take some time to repair.

The share price is in a downtrend; there is no doubt about it. Drawing a trend line shows us where resistance could be found over time in the event of a price recovery. Shortists who might have covered their shorts today could come out of the woodwork once the share price is at resistance.

In the meantime, the rising momentum oscillators suggest that selling pressure continues to ease and if buying pressure should continue to overcome the sellers, a test of trend line resistance is on the horizon.

The resistance provided by the declining 50dMA is something to watch out for as, if I were to hazard a guess, sellers would be out in force then. Immediate support is now provided by the 20dMA, formerly resistance at 57c.

Related post:
China Minzhong: Too cheap to sell.

China Minzhong: Too cheap to sell.

One of the things we hear is that we should buy at prices we would not sell at and to sell at prices we would not buy at. Not too long ago, on 5 June 12, I said that it is not a good time to sell China Minzhong's shares and that it would be more sensible to think of adding to any long positions. See the blog post: here.

In a research dated 11 June 12, Kim Eng says that:

We would not recommend investors to cut loss at this stage as stock valuations are still too cheap to do so. ... The next catalyst for the stock would be the full-year results ended in June 2012. We expect to see revenue recovery due to the late-winter season and the fact that Minzhong should also be able to collect the bulk of its receivables in 4QFY6/12. The full-year numbers should reveal the impact of the European problem on both demand and asset quality.

How low can the share price go? We conduct a scenario analysis to determine how low the share price can fall to ... Although we believe that the share price has already factored in the potential slowdown in demand in Europe and our target PER of 4.7x is 25% below the historical average, we have:

1. cut our sales volume further by an aggressive 40%,

2. written down CNY200m in receivables for FY6/13, and

3. revalued the share price at 3.7x PER, which is 1 standard deviation below the historical average PER.

The upshot is a target price of SGD0.51, which is only a little below the current price of SGD0.53.

Minzhong’s worst case NAV per share (we exclude land use rights, land improvement costs as well as 20% of trade receivables) also suggests the current share price provides a very safe floor.

Wilmar and China Minzhong: Time to go long?

My ill fated investments in Wilmar and China Minzhong are 30% and 45% down, respectively. The decision to be vested in these two counters were based on macro ideas and technically, they looked like they were resting on supports.

As regular readers know, I do not have cut loss prices and would seek to add to long positions if the technicals are favourable. Favourable? Yes, I look for higher lows in the momentum oscillators as share prices move lower.

Today, I added to my long positions in Wilmar and China Minzhong as their charts show me rising momentum oscillators while their share prices are retreating. The trading volumes have dwindled as well which led me to think that a floor could possibly be forming, if not the bottom.

Wilmar's share price is currently sitting on a golden ratio and if this should break, we could see $3.30 or even $3.08 tested next. Although the momentum oscillators are rising, the OBV is in decline which suggests that distribution activity is ongoing. I won't be too ambitious in adding to long positions.

China Minzhong's chart is similar to Wilmar's and if the Fibo lines I have drawn are any good, we could see 51.5c tested next. We could be seeing more selling although the the trading volume suggests that the action might not be as intense as before.

In both cases, it is not a good time to sell. Indeed, it would make more sense to stay vigilant for opportunities to buy in.

My strategy is to nibble and increase my additional purchases at lower prices if the technicals suggest that it could be a good idea. Of course, there is no way we can be absolutely sure and we can only call a bottom after it has been formed.

Charts: China Minzhong, Wilmar, Yongnam, Sabana REIT, AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT.

I have a friend who told me that he wants to buy more of China Minzhong at 50c. Why 50c? He can't quite say. Anyway, at 50c, I would have lost almost half of my initial investment in the company...

What does the chart say? Momentum is definitely negative and the MACD is still in decline. What is encouraging is the reducing volume over the last three sessions although it remains elevated. Today, a white spinning top was formed. Could this be a reversal signal?

Well. the OBV is still in decline which suggests distribution is ongoing even as price weakened. The MFI though seems to be forming a higher low.

The MFI takes into consideration both volume and price and is often seen as a measurement of demand momentum. So, it is telling us that there is some demand coming back as the stock was savagely sold down. A rebound could be on the horizon and we could see gap closing at 68.5c in such an instance.

Wilmar's technicals have nothing encouraging for the bulls apart for the formation of a black hammer today.

This reversal signal would need confirmation in the next session but with the other technicals very bearish, it would be a nice surprise if a reversal does happen.

Yongnam has been sold down. It touched 22c today, a level not seen since August last year.

I have looked through Yongnam's numbers and they actually still look quite good. However, the lower highs on the MFI are obvious and buying momentum is absent. So, price could drift lower which could see it testing the low of 21.5c hit last August.

Although there has been some distribution going on as suggested by a mildly declining OBV, most shareholders are just holding on. Look at the volume. Look at where the OBV was last August and where is it now. Although price has reached the low levels of last August, OBV is at a much higher level.

To me, the price weakness of recent sessions is nothing alarming. It is not a result of rampant selling. It is just that without buyers share price could continue to drift lower.

I know quite a few people are looking to possibly adding more units of Sabana REIT to their portfolios.

MACD has crossed into negative territory. MFI, a measure of demand hit 50% and turned down. The OBV suggests that distribution is ongoing. The very high volume today formed a black hammer. The high volume suggests a heightened state of activity and the black hammer suggests that bears had the upperhand. Further weakness could see supports at 93c (100dMA) and possibly 90.5c (200dMA) tested.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT's chart is similar to Sabana REIT's but uglier.

The MACD has plunged headlong into negative territory while the MFI went into oversold territory. Very bearish. The OBV suggests that strong distribution activity is ongoing. Indeed, look at the trading volume spiking today. Immediate support is at $1.08 and if that goes, we could see $1.035 tested.

Should have sold in May and gone away?

In The Straits Times and The Business Times today, there are at least three articles which mentioned "sell in May and go away" and whether it holds any water. Has anyone sold a large part or all of their investments in the last few trading sessions?

Well, today, global stock markets retreated as the Greeks and the French elected new leaders into government. They are sick of austerity measures and they spoke with their votes! European debt story is still very much the key sentiment driver for global stock markets, it would seem.

Asian markets and the euro slumped on Monday after voters in France and Greece voted out their ruling parties in a backlash against austerity measures aimed at battling the eurozone crisis. Read article here: CNA.

I am not an economist. I am not a political scientist. Some issues are definitely beyond me. So, what do I do?

Someone just told me that timing is everything and that now seems like the right time. Right time? For what? I replied that things are increasingly more volatile and I find it harder to time anything.

I am chanting the same mantra to myself and that is to stay invested for income while keeping a war chest ready. This is the only strategy I know which would work either way.

I know that the majority of my portfolio which is in S-REITs is actually doing better now than a few months ago. My more recent investments are not doing as well, notably China Minzhong, SoundGlobal and Wilmar. These investments were made as the counters' share prices retreated from recent highs. Do I press the panic button? I like their businesses and I believe they would probably be around for a long time to come. I like the investment themes of agriculture and water. So, I am staying vested. I would probably add to my long positions too if TA shows me clearer signals to do so.

Don't panic. Stay clear headed. Revisit reasons for being invested in the first place. Are the reasons still valid? Are the investments still fundamentally good? If you want to buy more, what does TA tell you? Think with our heads and not our hearts. Good luck.

Related posts:
1. Sleep well at night with a plan.
2. Why do I not panic?

STI declines 2.2% to 2,924.95 at closing
Monday, 07 May 2012

© 2012 - The Edge Singapore

China Minzhong: Initiated long position.

Anyone who is a follower of Jim Rogers would know that he is always asking people to become farmers and he is quite serious. Jim is of the opinion that farm incomes will increase exponentially in the next few decades. This stems partially from his belief that we should be invested in real assets like agricultural commodities which would retain their value in the face of heightened inflation around the world.

Recently, I have been looking at China Minzhong, a company which the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) has a 17% stake in. Prudential reduced its stake to less than 5% while Templeton increased its stake to above 5%.

There is an abundance of research which has been done on China Minzhong and it is mostly good. Here are links to some analyses:

1. CIMB (14 Feb 2012)
2. Kim Eng (14 Feb 2012)

China Minzhong has made some large capital expenditure last year and it would take some time to show positive results. The longer term picture looks promising and buying on weakness could be rewarding for anyone who takes a longer term perspective here.

See slides presentation dated 13 Feb 2012: here.

1. Net income margin is consistently above 25%.
2. NAV per share: RMB 5.70 (approximately S$ 1.14)
3. Net gearing ratio: 0.11x
4. Current ratio: 2.7x
5. Half year EPS: RMB 0.48 (approximately S$0.096)

Expectations are for second half of its financial year to show higher EPS.

Technically, China Minzhong's share price emerged from a terribly persistent downtrend at the start of the new year. It then took a while to overcome resistance provided by the 100dMA before hitting a road block set by the 200dMA. It is now supported by the 50dMA and if that goes, we could see a retreat to the 100dMA which is currently at 93c.

Notice that volume has been higher on white candle days and lower on black candle days in recent sessions. Volume seems to be reducing as price pulled back. Consolidation could continue for a while more as weaker holders are shaken out.

I have initiated a long position today at 98.5c. If its share price were to weaken to 93c, I would probably add to my position. 93c is, in my opinion, a very important support if it should be tested. If it should break, we could see price retreating to test the lows of 2011 with 84c as an immediate target.