Technical analysis of SingTel.

A reader saw my technical analysis (TA) for ComfortDelgro and asked if I did the same for SingTel?

Translated:

"Please share your TA for SingTel."

OK, I don't do TA on request anymore but since I am in the process of building a larger stake in SingTel, here is a quick TA on SingTel:

Since going XD, SingTel saw its share price plunging but I don't think this has anything to do with its business fundamentals which do not seem to have deteriorated enough to warrant the huge decline in price.

If the fundamentals at $3.79 a share are the same as the fundamentals at $3.58 a share, logically, what should someone who was buying at $3.79 do now?

Having said that, price movement is sentiment driven most of the time and this is what we call "volatility".

There is no accounting for prices and Mr. Market does not care what we think.

For those who bought at a much higher price only to "cut losses" now, I only hope they do not regret later on.

If I were in their shoes, I would ask if I did not buy at those higher prices, would I be buying now?

This question will probably yield a more rational answer.

Well, it has always worked for me.

To be fair and also to be rational, what they do depends on their motivation for buying into SingTel when they did.

Always remember that TA is about probability and not certainty.

It is quite clear to me that there is support at $3.58 a share but it is not a strong support per se.

The Fibo golden ratios are at $3.53, $3.49 and $3.45.

These supports might or might not be tested but if the downtrend should persist, these are the prices which could see me accumulating.

In terms of momentum oscillators, both MFI and CMF are pretty benign which suggests to me that the bears might lack the strength to push the price much lower although the huge gap down in price is bearish and that is what the MACD reflects.

Although I believe that investing in SingTel at $3.58 provides value for money and that money isn't flowing rapidly out of the stock, it might not be a good idea to throw in everything including the kitchen sink at this point either.

I anyhow talk to myself only. I blur.

Related post:
Technical analysis of ComfortDelgro.

Croesus Retail Trust, HPH Trust, NBN Trust and SingTel.

Reader on HPH Trust, its decreasing NAV and distributions:
Thanks for your reply. I knew a lot of readers were asking you to talk to yourself on may things so definitely appreciate your time on this topic.

AK:
HPH Trust's land leases are decaying rapidly. I blogged about the Trust a few times before and why I avoided it.
(They were holding back much needed CAPEX to maintain DPU for a while but CAPEX could not be held back indefinitely.)

Reader:
As u know, we received the CRT scheme document and the suggestion is for us to accept.
At current price, we are looking at yield of 6.6% or slightly higher if the scheme went through. But there isn't any obvious choices (trots or trust) in the market that would match or beat that. Would like to understand what are the top few choices you would have redeploy the capital return.

AK:
If you are looking for 6.6% yield, I think it is not difficult to find but I would say yield isn't everything and it is obvious from the fact that I bought into SingTel instead of NBN Trust recently. 
See: Avoiding the instant gratification of yield.

Wondering to vote for or against the sale of Croesus Retail Trust? See related post #1 below for some of my thoughts.

Related posts:
1. Croesus Retail Trust.
2. HPH Trust.
3. SingTel or NBN Trust?

Avoiding the instant gratification of yield (SingTel, Starhub and REITs).

My blog has pretty useful content in the comments section but many do not read the comments section, I found out a long time ago. 

So, there was a time when I would share the comments in a blog post so that they reach more people. I stop doing that after I found out that Google didn't like it and it affected my blog's page ranking. 

However, I have decided that it really should not matter to me and that making sure that the content reaches more people is more important. 

This was a recent conversation:

redponza said...
Hi AK,
There is a 4th telco getting into Singapore, don't you worry about the intensified competition?

Also, unlike REIT where there is minimum capital expenditure, telco needs to upgrade their network consistently to maintain competitiveness. With the lower yield, and meh growth potential, not sure why it is better than REIT.

In the telco space, isn't Starhub better with a much higher dividend yield?

Thanks.



AK said...
Hi redponza,

SingTel derives less than 20% of its revenue from Singapore. It is truly an MNC.

(Added on 21 Aug 17. Reader:
I look at Singtel's annual report. I can't derive the 20%. It is 40+ % to my calculation. How did u derive it? 

AK:
Well spotted. I meant to say its Singapore mobile business which is, of course, what would probably be impacted by the entry of a 4th Telco next year. That business segment accounts for 13% of SingTel's total revenue.)

As for CAPEX, selling away most of its stake in Netlink NBN passed a heavy baby to other investors. SingTel retains only a 25% stake in the newly listed entity.

If you are worried about the 4th Telco and increased competition in Singapore, you should be more worried about Starhub.

This is also probably why Mr. Market demands a higher dividend yield from Starhub which incidentally also has a higher payout ratio compared to SingTel.

One more thing, we really shouldn't be comparing Telcos with REITs. The yields are not comparable.

SingTel pays out a percentage of its earnings as dividends while REITs pay out from their operational cash flow.

If we were to use the same yardstick for both, we would worry about REITs since their DPU is usually higher than their EPU.





redponza said...
Is telco attractive?

From my point of view, return = dividend yield + dividend growth, taking debt into consideration.
There is lower growth and lower yield in telco, thus I am puzzled why telco is even considered in the first place.

And from a price to book standpoint, they can never beats a REIT =.=

But on the other hand, I saw famous investors grabbing telco companies, hence I must be missing sth here?





AK said...
Hi redponza,

Like I said, they are different animals.

It depends on how we look at investments and how value is created.

Most REITs pay out more than they earn. They do not retain any earnings.

SingTel pay a percentage of their earnings and they retain some earnings so that they become more valuable over time.

I like some REITs and my portfolio is rather heavy in REITs. So, it is sensible to become less dependent on REITs especially when conditions have become less benign for them.

It is about having a more holistic approach.

Frankly, not all REITs are good investments.

We should wonder at the sustainability of distributions.

A REIT could have high CAPEX down the road:

http://singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.sg/2015/08/is-keppel-dc-reit-attractive-investment.html

A REIT could see their assets disappear in the not too distant future:

http://singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.sg/2017/03/viva-industrial-trust-more-attractive.html

So, we must be careful when we lump REITs together to say that REITs can never be beaten in terms of return on investment. The quality of returns and the sustainability are pertinent considerations.

To new readers of ASSI, please read related post #1 below.

Related posts:
1. Instant gratification of yield.
2. SingTel and Netlink NBN Trust.

SingTel and Netlink NBN Trust.

Some people keep asking me what have I bought recently. 

Hmm. Let me see.

Eggs, extra virgin olive oil, butter, dark chocolate, matcha ice cream and some other stuff.

What? Wrong answer?

Jokes aside, to those who like asking me what did I buy or if XXX stock can buy or not, you should know you would be disappointed most of the time with my answers.

You have been warned. ;)

Anyway, in an interview a few years back, when asked what was the first company I ever invested in, my answer was SingTel. 





Like many Singaporeans then, we were given a chance to buy discounted SingTel shares by Mr. Goh Chok Tong who wished for Singaporeans to think about investing in stocks to help grow our wealth. People my age or older would probably remember this.

I am still holding on to those shares and collecting dividends, year after year. 

Is that the best way to achieve greater returns? 

I don't know but I know it generated pretty decent and safe returns.

Since then, over the years, I went on an adventure as an investor, trader and speculator in the stock market. 

I made some money and lost some money. 

I think I must have made more money than I lost or else I would probably be in IMH by now.

In my retirement, I tell myself that I must not be too adventurous with money. So, I bought more SingTel shares in 2015. 

Informed by charts, I added to my investment in SingTel as its share price retraced to what I thought were supports and I did that again recently.




My decision is now partly emboldened by the listing of Netlink NBN Trust which effectively strengthens SingTel's coffers by some $2 billion. 

So, SingTel has become a more valuable company after the sale, more valuable than it was in 2015.

When asked whether I was interested in Netlink NBN Trust at its IPO, the answer was in the negative. A 5% yield just didn't cut it for me.

With relatively high depreciation and replacement costs to be considered as well, a structure that pays out most of its cash flow to shareholders probably means much higher debt in time to come. 

I wonder about the sustainability of its dividends in the longer run. 

To invest in Netlink NBN Trust, therefore, I would demand a much higher yield than 5% as a compensation. 

This could be achieved through a higher DPU which is unlikely or a lower unit price which is probably more likely to happen.

In comparison, I believe that SingTel's dividends are more sustainable. 





There is talk of a special dividend but whether there is going to be a special dividend from SingTel or not does not matter to me. 

With a payout ratio of 60% to 75% of net profits, I will be quite happy with a 3.5% to 4.5% regular dividend yield. Lower than Netlink NBN Trust's 5% but it gives me peace of mind.

Looking at the chart, it looks like there is a chance that SingTel's share price could weaken again in future but it could bounce up first. This is the trader in me talking. 

Don't ask me what could cause this because I don't know.

However, I do know I would like to buy more if SingTel's share price should go much lower, all else remaining equal.

Related post:
1Q 2017 passive income.

Should I buy a higher price or lower price stock?

Thanks, AK.

I was considering between singtel and singpost but decided to go for singpost cause I can buy more lots.

 

Singtel price is 3x of singpost. I was comparing buying 10 lots each. Hence singpost appeals to me more.

 

Any comments?

 

Regards,
D

Hi D,

Price is what you pay and value is what you get.

A 10c stock could be costlier than a $1 stock. ;)

I blogged about why QAF was cheaper at a higher price before, for example.

Use related posts below as food for thought.

Best wishes,
AK

Related posts:
1. $1.14 a share cheaper than 94c a share?
2. 1H 2016 income from non-REITs. (Added QAF again.)

2015 full year income from non-REITs.

Before I reveal the numbers, let me talk to myself about what I did in 4Q 2015, investments wise.

I re-initiated a long position in ARA as I felt that its stock price declined to a reasonably attractive level. 

ARA's rights issue which followed not long after was unexpected but I took up my entitlement and applied for excess rights as I looked at it as an opportunity to buy more on the cheap. I will probably buy more if the stock declines further in price.

Of course, those who follow my blog will also remember another rights issue and that was by Croesus Retail Trust. I too participated fully in that rights issue.

A back of the envelope calculation shows that Croesus Retail Trust is now trading at a 10% distribution yield. 

Croesus Retail Trust has rather high gearing level but if we were to take that away, Croesus Retail Trust is actually still generating more than a 5% distribution yield (i.e. non-leveraged yield) which I think is very attractive for a portfolio of mostly freehold retail properties in Japan. 

As the Trust's unit price declined, I added to my position again in the middle of December at 78c a unit.

I also increased my investment in Accordia Golf Trust as its stock price declined. The last time I did this was in mid-December at 51c a unit.

Investing in Accordia Golf Trust, we must realise that weather plays an important part in its performance. So, we have to expect its revenue to fluctuate quite a bit seasonally, much like investing in hospitality REITs.

With sentiments pretty negative, if Mr. Market were to offer me meaningfully lower prices, I would probably be buying more.

I also did a bit of trading in 4Q 2015. I reduced my long positions in Wilmar and ST Engineering as their stock prices recovered. That gave me some trading gains for the quarter.

I don't trade very much anymore as it requires a bit more work. Now, I might not even look at the stock market for several days in a row.

I added to my long position again in ST Engineering as its stock price declined by more than 10% from my recent selling price. 


ST Engineering is still one investment for income and growth. I definitely want to buy more if Mr. Market goes into a depression.

For those who do not follow my comments section, I initiated a smallish long position in DBS. Some know that I have been thinking of buying into the three local banks for a while and have been waiting for their stock prices to become cheaper.

I chose DBS first because it was trading at the smallest premium to NAV compared to OCBC and UOB. There is also consensus that DBS would be the biggest beneficiary of rising interest rates.

I also added to my investment in SingTel as its stock price declined. We invest in SingTel, Starhub and M1 because they are defensive income generators but with SingTel, there is also a nice element of growth.

Finally, I added to my long position in APTT this month after having left it alone since its inception. The rapid plunge in APTT's unit price up till middle of December seemed excessive to me even though I have mentioned before that a DPU of 8c a year is unsustainable in the longer run.


A much lower DPU of between 4c to 5c would probably be more sustainable for APTT. So, adding to my long position at 63c a unit, I am expecting a more realistic distribution yield of 6.3% to 7.9%.


A more recent development was an expression of interest by a party to acquire Ascendas Hospitality Trust which I included in my income portfolio in 3Q 2014. I have added to my investment on a few occasions since then, as and when its unit price declined.

The last time I increased exposure to Ascendas Hospitality Trust was on 24 August 2015 at 58.5c a unit. With an estimated annual DPU of 5.5c, I was looking at a distribution yield of almost 10%.

Although I hope that the offer is going to be at a fairly attractive premium to valuation, I am aware that if the Trust should be taken private, my income from non-REITs next year would take a hit.

Very safe to show hand like this.

Including my first income distribution from Religare Health Trust (RHT), dividends from my investments in non-REITs in Q4 brings my income in 2015 from them to a grand total of S$76,804.69.

This works out to be about S$6,400.00 a month.

Including the distributions from S-REITs this year, I am pretty satisfied with the total income generated by my investment portfolio.


Related post:
1. ARA: Re-initiating long position.
2. Croesus Retail Trust: Rights.
3. Trading ST Engineering.
4. Religare Health Trust: Entered at 88c.
5. 9M 2015 income from non-REITs.

Fraud: Credit cards.

When I was in Los Angeles with my dad once many years ago, he tried to buy some chocolates at the airport but his card was declined. The cashier told him that a message appeared on the machine that he was to call the card centre. My dad was puzzled since he promptly paid his credit card bills each month.

Anyway, he called the card centre using his ICC at a public phone booth. In case you are wondering what on earth is an ICC, it was an International Calling Card issued by Singtel for people who were travelling overseas in the past. I don't think ICC exists now.

The card centre lady asked him where he was and told him his credit card was used in a petrol station in Johor just two hours ago! Wow! My dad must have had taken something faster than the Concord to travel from the USA to Johor and then back in two hours.

There are risky places to use credit cards and we have to be very careful:

Flea MarketsFlea market merchants are often transient and can be difficult to locate if there is a problem with charges. It's especially true for vendors who don't have online credit card terminals and instead make carbon copies of your credit card.

That doesn't mean those vendors are necessarily fraudulent, but it makes the transaction less secure. The credit card company might have trouble doing a charge back. If you're going to the flea market, take cash. It's also easier to negotiate that way.

Small Shops/Cafes in Foreign Countries
These smaller merchants have a significantly higher percentage of credit card fraud as reported by large banks and credit card companies. Many of these transactions end up being written off by the banks because the merchants simply can't be located. There's just a higher chance of fraud when you get outside of the mainstream, so when in doubt, use cash.

For the full article, read:
The Riskiest Places to Use Your Credit Card

Tea with AK71: Bought an iPhone 4, almost.

I am an techno dinosaur.  Till today, I do not know how to use Excel.  When a reader asked if I would consider starting a Tweeter account, I couldn't figure out the reason why I should start one. At a recent visit to a customer's shop, one person asked how many in the room had an iPhone and I was the only one who did not answer in the affirmative. Why an iPhone? Maybe, I am an endangered species.

A few weeks ago, I read that people were selling their iPhone 4s at $1,300 to $1,400 at Sim Lim Square! They would re-contract, get their iPhone 4s and sell them for a quick buck.  Does it really work? Recently, my contract came to an end and remembering what I read, I went to Singtel to see if I could get an iPhone 4 and, perhaps, make a quick buck in the process too.

Here's the deal: I had to pay $480 for a new iPhone 4 and upgrade my plan which means paying an additional $20 per month.  I did some math. It worked out to be $480 + $20*24 = $960.  I figured if I could sell the phone for $1,300, I would make $340 right away!  That's not bad.  So, I told the salesman I would take the iPhone 4. 

The salesman gave me a look, that kind that suggested he had seen my type before. Was I that obvious? Maybe, I took too long to do my mental sums.  He asked in a voice that sounded rather bored if I had made a reservation.  A reservation?  Yes, apparently, we had to make a reservation to get an iPhone 4 as there was a long line of people waiting! 

Wow!  Apple is definitely rolling in the dough.  This is the best kind of business to be in, goods are presold and no stocking is required.  A HTC or a Samsung and I would not have to wait.  Nokia only came to mind belatedly.

Anyway, I went ahead and made the reservation after being advised that it would take about 3 weeks before I could get the phone.  I then found out that evening that the price of the iPhone 4 had fallen to $1,080 in Sim Lim Square.  Apparently, the price was very high weeks ago because of shortages.  The supply is not so tight now.  I was too slow. 

I could still make $120 at $1,080 but the price could drop more in another 3 weeks while I waited for my phone. Sheesh! So much work for so little profit plus lots of uncertainty thrown in.  I will stick to a free phone.