From MUST to DC REIT to MINT, signs that US commercial real estate is in trouble. ARA Hospitality Trust to be spared?

This is the transcript of a YouTube video I produced recently.
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During "Evening with AK and friends 2023", someone came up to me and asked what I thought of US Hospitality REITs listed in Singapore.

He asked that question since I kept reminding myself to stay away from US commercial real estate REITs, and in particular the US office REITs.

Of course, now we know what just happened to Digital Core real estate investment trust, a data center Trust listed in Singapore.

They lost their second largest customer which contributed 23% to their total rental income.

That customer was also Mapletree Industrial Trust's third largest customer.

So, Mapletree Industrial Trust would be taking a hit too although not as badly as in the case of Digital Core real estate investment trust.

Mapletree Industrial Trust announced that their 3rd largest tenant by gross rental income has initiated bankruptcy proceedings in the US Court.

The data center tenant is a global co-location provider and accounted for 3.2% of Mapletree Industrial Trust's gross rental income.

Quick to follow, we saw Manulife US REIT's fifth-largest tenant by gross rental income exercised an early termination of its lease.

This was for 500 Plaza Drive, also known as Plaza, in New Jersey USA.

Wait, there is more.



This is in the news today.

Park Hotels and Resorts, a real estate investment trust in the USA, has made the "difficult, but necessary" decision to stop payments on its $725 million commercial mortgage-backed security loan secured by two of its San Francisco hotels.

They are Hilton San Francisco Union Square and the Parc 55 San Francisco.

They are giving up on these hotels and would see them removed forcibly from their portfolio of hotels.

The problem has partly to do with overly optimistic valuations during the years of ultra-low interest rates.

The two downtown San Francisco hotels were valued at a combined $1.56 billion in an appraisal at the time of the loan underwriting in 2016!

This means the current Loan to Value, if the valuation is still valid, is around 46%.

Think of it as a gearing level of 46% for a REIT.

That does not sound excessive, but it seems like it is. ;p



It is very likely that the valuations of those two hotels could have seen a decline, which would bump up the Loan to Value number, of course.

We would not be wrong to question if the valuations of assets held by ARA US Hospitality Trust are still realistic today, compared to what they were pre-pandemic.

Of course, this is but one question to ask.

ARA US Hospitality Trust has seen its gearing ratio increased and is relatively high at about 41%.

This is even as its proportion of debt which have fixed interest rates declined significantly from 82% to 73%.

With weighted average debt maturity at only 1.3 years, the Trust is going to face the challenge of refinancing in an environment of not only higher interest rates, but also tighter credit conditions.

Why is this important to note?

Well, the question sometimes is not how much the loan would cost, but whether we could even get a loan?



Shoes are dropping.

More shoes are going to drop.

And it feels like it is raining shoes in the US commercial real estate sector.

Now, apparently, the next shoe to drop could be US Hospitality REITs.

To be sure, I am not talking about excessive financial engineering or possible fraud here, which seemed to be the case for Eagle Hospitality Trust, another US hospitality Trust which was listed in Singapore.

I am talking about something which affects the entire commercial real estate sector in the USA.

Credit is tightening in the USA and more so for commercial real estate.

In a recent interview with CNBC, a commercial real estate developer in the USA said he sent out 48 enquiries recently, and he received quotes from only two banks.

He said that was highly unusual, and he followed by saying it seemed that the commercial real estate sector in the USA was being strangled.

That interview gave an idea of how bad the credit situation for commercial real estate is in the USA now, and it could get worse for the whole sector.



During "Evening with AK and friends 2023", I reminded myself that I was painting the entire US commercial real estate sector with a broad brush.

I don't know enough to be able to invest comfortably in those REITs.

Those who have enough knowledge and savvy to invest well in the sector should follow their own plan.

Always have a plan, our own plan.

If AK can talk to himself, so can you!

References:
1. Digital Core REIT.
2. Manulife US REIT. 

3. Smart money exits US hospitality.

4. How to invest in REITs?

Fear is palpable! Market crashing again? Reminders.

The week started with the shutting down of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank by U.S. regulators.

The U.S. regulators announced measures which ultimately bailed out the banks.

Then, we saw Credit Suisse reporting "material weaknesses" and the Swiss National Bank stepping in to backstop the troubled bank.

Credit Suisse took a 50 billion Swiss Francs loan from the Swiss National Bank to strengthen liquidity.

Then, a consortium of 11 largest U.S. banks rescued First Republic Bank, the 13th largest bank in the U.S.A., by jointly depositing US$30 billion in the troubled bank.

After all that happened, Mr. Market ended the week with a dramatic down day in the U.S. stock market on Friday.

The Fed increased interest rate a year ago in March 2022 for the first time since 2018. 

Since then, the rapid rate at which interest rates have been increased has caused a lot of pain for homeowners as well as investors in the real estate space.

The pain is most keenly felt in the high growth but negative earnings tech space and if you are a tech investor, you know this firsthand.

The people who said that something would break under the growing pressure of such rapid rate hikes are now looking rather prescient.

What would they say now?

Not surprisingly, that things will continue breaking as long as the Fed continues to hike interest rates.

With the ECB having hiked interest rates in the EU by another half a percentage point, the Fed is probably going to hike interest rates in the U.S. next week too as they stick to their plan to fight sticky inflation.

Mr. Market, already jittery, while initially assured by the show of solidarity in the U.S. banking industry, became depressed again on Friday when First Republic Bank suspended dividends.

In an environment where depositors could lose their savings and where investors in both stocks and bonds are losing money, heightened volatility in the stock market is unsurprising.

Fear is palpable.

It drives Mr. Market into self-preservation mode.

If the confidence deficit continues, then, more money could flow to the perceived safety of U.S. government bonds, and we could see yields lower.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, I blogged about how I was worried because my passive income was reduced due to my businesses either suspending or reducing dividends.

My relatively high level of CPF savings was the only "investment" that continued to pay what I expected it to pay, uninterrupted, which highlighted to me the importance of having an allocation to high quality fixed income in any portfolio.

So, I can understand Mr. Market's negative reaction to First Republic Banks's decision.

Many people depend on dividends for a living or to at least fund part of their expenses.

The still troubled bank saw its stock price recovering from a day ago on Thursday only to see it plunging 32% on Friday.

When the bear comes out of its cave, none is spared, and we saw the stock prices of large U.S. banks beaten down too as even JP Morgan saw a 3.78% decline in its stock price.

When Mr. Market is gripped by fear, he becomes irrational, and the baby gets thrown out with the bathwater.

As U.S.A. is still the largest economy in the world, what happens there often spreads to the global markets.

So, we could see Asian markets echoing that fear in the U.S. stock market.

I have said many times before that we cannot predict what will happen but if we are prepared, we need not worry and we could instead benefit.

Don't be overly pessimistic.

Don't be overly optimistic.

Be pragmatic.

This week, I was on steroids. 

I have published too many blogs regarding the stock market and what my plan might be.

So, if this is your first visit in as long a time, you will have a lot to read.

Have a good weekend.

Recently published:
US$30b rescue! T-bills 3.65%! Banks or REITs?

Ticketing for "Evening with AK and friends 2023" is ongoing.

Increasing interest rates will bring prices down to earth (Don't think and grow rich!).

UPDATED (JULY 2018):






"Interest rates are like gravity in valuations. If interest rates are nothing, values can be almost infinite. If interest rates are extremely high, that is a great gravitational pull on values and we had that in the early 1980s." Warren Buffett
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I read the opening paragraphs of the following article and got rapid heart palpitations:

"Boomers lost a significant chunk of their retirement nest eggs in the recession, but it was members of Generation X who were really hit the hardest, according to a report released Thursday.

"If they don't start paying off debt and saving more, Gen Xers (those between the ages of 38 and 47) and younger Boomers (those in their late 40s to mid-50s) are on track to retire financially worse off than the generations before them..."

..




I am a Gen Xer!

Reading on, I realised the author was referring to Americans. 

Whew! That is a relief!

However, what was described in the article could happen to Singaporeans too. 

Don't be too complacent. 

Things look rosy here now but it wasn't too long ago when they weren't.





I know friends who think that Singapore's economy will continue to boom and investing in real estate here is a no brainer as prices will only continue to go up. 

Well, I am not saying that they are definitely wrong but it would be prudent for them to contemplate the possible downside.

Anyway, to grow rich, what can we learn from the American experience? 

Don't think!

Yes, don't think of 3 things. 





Constantly remind ourselves:

1. Don't think that cheap money is here to stay.

Gen Xers were also plagued by significantly higher debt levels, including mortgages, auto loans, credit card and student loan debt -- much of which was accumulated in the years leading up to the recession.





2. Don't think that the value of real estate will only go up.

And while only two-thirds of Gen Xers owned homes in 2010, those who did saw their median home equity plummet by 27% during the past three years.





3. Don't think of ever stopping to save and invest for our retirement.

By the end of the recession, Gen X held investments, retirement plans and savings with a median value of just $14,500, down from $19,382 in 2007.... Including Social Security benefits, Gen Xers are projected to have enough money in retirement to replace only half of their annual pre-retirement earnings.





In our personal finances, if we save more, invest wisely and have less debt, we cannot go very wrong.


Read full article: here.




Related posts:
1. From rich to broke?
2. Slaving to stay in a condominium.
3. To be a happy peasant.
4. Millionaire or not, plan for retirement.
5. Young working Singaporeans, you are OK! Really?

Saizen REIT: A brief break through.

Saizen REIT had a high volume, white candle day. Could it be that Mr. Market is more than warming up to this once upon a time unloved REIT? It certainly looks that way.

Draw some Fibo lines and we see why 21c was a strong resistance today. With volume as high as today's, however, it would be natural for any chartist to wonder if there could be a follow through in the next session.

Of course, the very long upper wick on the candle suggests the presence of very strong selling pressure as unit price tried to push higher. Look at the CMF and we see a lower high and a lower low which suggest to me that money was flowing out of the counter as price pushed higher. This could limit upside in the short term.

Fundamentally, the NAV/unit of Saizen REIT as well as its DPU in S$ terms could reduce somewhat due to the weaker JPY. Against the S$, the JPY has weakened some 20% in the last one year. So, it would not be wrong to expect lower distribution yields, all else remaining equal.

However, Saizen REIT has been on an acquisition path and this would mitigate any reduction in NAV/unit as well as DPU in S$ terms. Indeed, unit holders would have been very pleased when a higher half yearly DPU of 0.66c was paid out recently. That was a bit higher than the DPU six months earlier.

On 31 December 2012, the REIT's NAV/unit was JPY 19.21.  Based on the exchange rate of S$13.30 to JPY 1,000 today, NAV/unit works out to be S$0.255. So, at 20c a unit, Saizen REIT is still trading at a discount to NAV. Almost 22%, actually.

If units of Saizen REIT should trade at S$0.25, with an annualised DPU of 1.32c, we are looking at a distribution yield of 5.28%. For a portfolio of freehold residential properties in Japan which has seen a consistent occupancy rate of above 90%, is this good enough for Mr. Market?

There are really no comparable REITs listed in Singapore and we have to look at J-REITs to get a clue as to why Saizen REIT could look very attractive even at today's price. J-REITs' average distribution yield is just slightly above 4% now. So, at 20c a unit and with an annualised DPU of 1.32c, the 6.6% distribution yield from Saizen REIT looks extremely attractive.

With an aggressive Bank of Japan bent on their own brand of quantitative easing (QE), we could see the Land of the Rising Sun experiencing rising prices again. So, we could see Saizen REIT's portfolio of properties being valued higher in JPY terms over time. This could bump up NAV/unit in S$ terms.

However, if we look at the experience of the USA, it could take years and more than one QE before we see positive results. So, any optimism in the short term should be tempered but the longer term picture is very promising.

If Mr. Market is ready to accept a lower distribution yield of 5.5% from the REIT and 5.5% is still much higher than comparable J-REITs' distribution yields, then, we could see unit price trading higher at 24c in time to come, everything else remaining equal.

So, is Saizen REIT still undervalued now? Yes, even now, I believe that it is.

Technically, however, selling pressure was very strong as unit price tried to push past 21c. CMF shows an increase in the outflow of money from the REIT as unit price moved higher today. So, if you took some gains off the table today, I think it was a great idea. Just make sure to get back in at supports if given a chance.

Related posts:
1. Saizen REIT: Still a buy?
2. Saizen REIT: DPU 0.66c.

AK's AEI for Changi Airport!

These photos were taken in Las Vegas:

Looks like a casino?

Where is this place? There is a clue in the photo...

Gasp! The airport?! Bingo!

Singapore Changi International Airport could learn from this and generate extra revenue or not?

We have to make sure that the jackpot machines are found in designated areas only with attendants on duty to prevent under 18s from entering and losing their pocket money, of course.

Instead of painting yellow boundary lines around such areas, let us use green paint (the color of money) to differentiate them from the smoking areas.

You know what is the fantastic thing about this idea? Our country's airport already looks so fantabulous! There is no need to spend gazillions like MBS and RWS did just to house these jackpot machines!

Make full use of existing floor space! S-REITs call it AEI (asset enhancement initiatives)! I like it!

If Singapore takes to this idea, I hope the authorities would credit me with the idea.

Paying me a token (7 figure) sum in appreciation wouldn't hurt either. ;p

See photos of my recent trip to Las Vegas: here.

Related post:
Is gambling a bad thing?

It is official! Fiscal Cliff averted!

Mr. Market is in a good mood! The Fiscal Cliff has been averted!

As global stock markets made their 2013 debut, the House of Representatives passed a deal between the White House and Senate Republicans to raise taxes on the rich and put off automatic $109 billion budget cuts for two months.

The deal passed the Senate early on Tuesday, but its fate hung in the balance for hours as House conservatives sought to amend it to include big spending cuts, which would likely have killed it.

In the end, the House voted 257 votes to 167 to pass the original bill with minority Democrats joining a smaller number of majority Republicans to pass the legislation after a bitterly contested and unusual session on New Year's Day.

President Barack Obama planned to make brief remarks at the White House within minutes of passage of the deal, which relieved investors who feared that continued logjam could have sent global stock markets spinning.

Read full article: here.

What a fantastic start to the new year! Happy New Year!

Related post:
President Obama wins! What next?

Vending machines in the USA.

On this last trip to the USA, I came across a couple of vending machines that I have never seen before anywhere else.

Guess what this one was selling?

Scratch and win cards! US$3.00 each.

What about this one?

Electronics! Amazing, isn't it?

In a situation where there is a shortage of space and labour, vending machines could be the answer for products which might not really need salespeople.

In Singapore, we see machines selling drinks, snacks and even Gardenia bread. However, we have not even touched the tip of the iceberg. They could be one of the answers to Singapore's problem with high rentals and a shortage of labour.

Related post:
Distinctly Japanese.

Flew United Airlines SG-Japan-USA (but never again).

Added on 12 April 2017:

OMG! This is what they do on United Airlines these days?



I won't fly United Airlines anymore.
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I am back! It is good to be home.

It has been a while since I went on a trip to the USA. I no longer enjoy very long flights and flying to the USA takes a VERY long time. 

Then, there is the time difference which I find harder to adjust to as I grow older. 

Then, there are all those pre-dawn flights which means being at the airport at 3 or 4am which means waking up in the middle of the night. 

Then, there is the returning to Singapore past midnight. Really tiring.

There is always a need to layover in an Asian city and although some would complain about this, I actually enjoy such layovers. 

I always fly American airlines like United, Northwest or Delta to the USA and the layovers are always in Narita, Japan. 

It is the same this time.

A two to three hours layover is just about right. I would have enough time to have a hot meal and do some window shopping in the airport as well. 

On this trip, I had a bowl of hot udon soup on my outbound journey and a very delicious cheese and ham toast on my inbound journey.

Many hungry for a hot meal!

A bowl of hot udon soup for 750 Yen. Think this is expensive? Try ordering the same in the USA!

DOUTOR has more than 900 outlets in Japan! 

Croque Monsieur is a toast with three types of cheese and ham!
Add a bottle of Genmai Cha for 550 Yen. Heavenly!

Ah, makes me feel like going on a holiday to Japan again. The JPY has weakened quite a bit since my last trip in December 2011. Should I? Hmm...

See photos of my December 2011 trip to Japan: here.

President Obama wins! What next?

President Obama has been re-elected! Seems that Mr. Ben Benanke's job is safe. More quantitative easing, a weaker US$ and stronger inflationary pressure? Seems like it.

People are concerned about the "fiscal cliff". Could it turn out to be a non-event? Could the Democrats and Republicans reach a compromise?

What is the "fiscal cliff" all about and why should we be concerned?

If the current laws slated for 2013 go into effect, the impact on the economy could be dramatic. While the combination of higher taxes and spending cuts would reduce the deficit by an estimated $560 billion... the policies set to go into effect would cut gross domestic product (GDP) by four percentage points in 2013, sending the economy into a recession.

See full write up at: The fiscal cliff explained.

President Barack Obama won re-election in a tight campaign, besting Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney in enough swing states to secure four more years in office.

The specter of gridlock would undoubtedly loom before Obama as he confronts an immediate task in addressing the series of automatic tax hikes and spending cuts – the so-called “fiscal cliff” – set to spring into place at the end of this year. As Obama won a second term, House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, said Republicans’ retention of their House majority meant “the American people have also made clear that there is NO mandate for raising tax rates.”

Read full story at: NBC News!

The story does not end with President Obama's re-election, for sure. Another chapter is about to begin.

Made and still making money from S-REITs.

In an environment of very low interest rates, S-REITs are logical beneficiaries and in more ways than one. Regular readers would have heard this many times already. Readers who are new to my blog might want to read some of my older blog posts on S-REITs and why they are expected to continue performing well.

When we invest in S-REITs, it is with a primary aim of receiving regular and meaningful income. I have also said that any capital gains would be a bonus.

The outperformance of S-REITs' unit prices has led some holders to wonder if they should divest. Well, as market wisdom goes, taking profit is never wrong. However, I would ask that these holders consider if they have better places to park their money. Remember, money will go to where it is treated best.

In economics, we learn about supply and demand and how prices are affected by the relationship between the two. S-REITs are seeing their unit prices rising strongly because more investors are now putting their money in S-REITs.

In the last two years, I have had readers from Malaysia, Hong Kong, Europe and the USA writing to me. The early movers into S-REITs are sitting on some very nice capital gains and receiving regular distributions with yields as high as 10+% in some cases. What's more? Their investments have seen forex gains as the Singapore Dollar continues to strengthen against their home currencies!

I kid you not when I tell you that these readers are all very much richer than I am and have made much more money by being in S-REITs although they came in somewhat later. I am happy with how well things have turned out for their investments in S-REITs.

When Pat (a cboxer in Bully the Bear) told me that I have a pool of funds, I told him I know well that what I have is merely a puddle. Having self-knowledge and knowing what I have achieved is humble, I am not fixated by how much I have versus how much others have. Of course, I am only human and it used to bother me when I was younger.

Instead, just like starting a business, we should have a model for wealth creation. Being fixated with how much wealth we have versus how much others have does nothing to grow our wealth.

For someone who is investing in the stock market for income, first, have a clear goal and that, to me, should be to create meaningful passive income streams which will fully replace our earned income. Pick out likely candidates and do the due diligence to decide on the ones which are likely to help us achieve our goals.

Next, have discipline. Stay the course. Yes, stick to the plan. If circumstances have not changed, why deviate from a good plan? However, what if they did change? Then, ask why was our plan a good plan. If the reasons for the plan being good no longer exist, it is time for a change, isn't it?

Maybank Kim Eng, 28 Sep 12: Year-to-date, we have seen many pension, insurance and income funds switching into REITs to pursue higher returns for the sheer fact that the yield-curve is almost flat.  This is further aggravated by the almost "zero-bound yields" which meant that yields have no more room to fall, erasing any prospects of fixed income capital gains for investors. In the quest for returns, many such funds had to turn to slightly riskier asset classes such as REITs for stable recurring distributions.  We believe that with the latest round of QE3 Infinity, ECB’s unlimited bond-purchase program and BoJ’s yen-asset-purchase program, coupled with the low interest rate environment and a yield-spread of 440 bps over the 10-year government bond with low earnings risk, would warrant further yield compression of 56-73bps, translating to 11%-14% upside for the S-REITs sector. Link: here.

Now, is investing in S-REITs still a good plan?

Related posts:
1. Investing in REITs: A flawed strategy?
2. Staying positive on S-REITs.
3. Mr. Market is always right.

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LIKE Marigold's facebook and help a child.

Fraud: Credit cards.

When I was in Los Angeles with my dad once many years ago, he tried to buy some chocolates at the airport but his card was declined. The cashier told him that a message appeared on the machine that he was to call the card centre. My dad was puzzled since he promptly paid his credit card bills each month.

Anyway, he called the card centre using his ICC at a public phone booth. In case you are wondering what on earth is an ICC, it was an International Calling Card issued by Singtel for people who were travelling overseas in the past. I don't think ICC exists now.

The card centre lady asked him where he was and told him his credit card was used in a petrol station in Johor just two hours ago! Wow! My dad must have had taken something faster than the Concord to travel from the USA to Johor and then back in two hours.

There are risky places to use credit cards and we have to be very careful:

Flea MarketsFlea market merchants are often transient and can be difficult to locate if there is a problem with charges. It's especially true for vendors who don't have online credit card terminals and instead make carbon copies of your credit card.

That doesn't mean those vendors are necessarily fraudulent, but it makes the transaction less secure. The credit card company might have trouble doing a charge back. If you're going to the flea market, take cash. It's also easier to negotiate that way.

Small Shops/Cafes in Foreign Countries
These smaller merchants have a significantly higher percentage of credit card fraud as reported by large banks and credit card companies. Many of these transactions end up being written off by the banks because the merchants simply can't be located. There's just a higher chance of fraud when you get outside of the mainstream, so when in doubt, use cash.

For the full article, read:
The Riskiest Places to Use Your Credit Card

Have conviction and make money?

It is impossible to see into the future. People who say that they can are like fortune tellers.

How much are their advice worth? How much would we pay fortune tellers to read our palms?

Whatever decisions we make are based on a whole gamut of factors. Then, we have certain expectations of how things would turn out after making such decisions.

The more thoroughly we could reason our feelings of conviction, the higher our chances of staying the course and, dare I say, that our decisions could deliver on our expectations.

Regular readers would probably get the feeling that for whatever has done well for me, I have been reasonably rigorous in my reasoning for those decisions (e.g. to be invested in industrial S-REITs in the last 3 years).

Every person, I believe, has flaws. I have a whole bagful of flaws. One flaw I have when it comes to investment is that I tend to be more careless when I do not have a feeling of crisis.

To have conviction is good but it has to be well reasoned. If I am unable to reason well my conviction, there shouldn't be any conviction.

Remember, however, that conviction is only part of the equation. Luck plays a big part in whether things turn out the way we expect them to.

I was reading The Business Times (weekend edition) and came across an interview with Isaac Souede, the chairman and CEO of Permal, one of the world's largest hedge funds groups.

He is reasonably bullish on China and is exposed to Asian equity through China, "which is seen as pivotal to Asia's fortune."

"If I'm wrong and China has a hard landing, all of Asia won't grow... Most countries in Asia (except India) are in the glide path of a pro-growth policy... which is very positive for equities. But the harbinger of all that is China...

"If Europe stays on a glide path of zero growth for the next five years, US and China will be fine... As long as Europe doesn't become cataclysmic and create a financial issue, then it can be at least cauterised. Europe is a very long term, trial and error solution. The key is for the US and China not to implode."

His conviction is strong and he has his reasons. However, so many things are not within his control. So, a good dose of luck is needed to deliver on his expectations.

Making money needs more than well reasoned convictions but well reasoned convictions should be part of the money making process.

Related posts:
1. Excuse me, are you an investor?
2. How did AK71 overcome his losses?

Voices, noises and choices.

The amount of information out there is enough to make one feel somewhat overwhelmed or even faint. I have not been reading blogs as much in the last one week and kept my reading primarily to Channel NewsAsia, The Business Times and Yahoo!Finance. Even so, it probably is enough to make heads spin.

Some proclaimed that the U.S. housing market has bottomed and is picking up! Conventional wisdom says that the U.S. housing market must pick up before we see a return to sustainable economic growth. On the same day, another article claimed that the U.S. economy is sliding back into recession!

Then, the stock markets around the world rallied because European banks can now be recapitalised directly from bailout funds. There are those who then said this is only a relief rally and it won't last. Their advice? Don't believe the rally! Sell the rally!

S&P500                       +2.49%

DAX                              +4.33%

What about the Singapore stock market? Some say that it is being re-rated upwards because stocks here are up 9.8% in H1. Some say that it is because of window dressing in the first half that has pushed the STI upwards. Huh? Which came first? The chicken or the egg?

Hey, don't believe me, go get a copy of the weekend edition of The Business Times today. (Er, in case some are wondering, no, this is not a paid advertorial by The Business Times although you could be helping me a tiny bit as I am a shareholder of SPH.)

OK, if you have not fallen off your chair or reached for a bottle of medicated oil by now, good.

So, what are we to do? Do we join the bullish camp or the bearish camp? Regular readers would have guessed my answer. I would say neither. Stay practical. Stay invested but have a war chest ready.

Staying 100% or mostly in cash is not a good idea. It is unproductive as higher than average inflation chips away the value of our cash on hand. In fact, The Business Times has an article today which says that although the Singapore labour market is tight and although people might receive increments to their salaries, they are seeing little gain due to high inflation. Like what we learned in economics, there is nominal wage increase but not much real wage increase.

Actually, businesses are finding rising costs a struggle to deal with. Restaurants have reduced the size of portions being served and have, in some cases, increased prices.

At Ichiban Boshi, my family like to order soft shell crabs because we find that $5.50 for 2 soft shell crabs (cut into halfs) is not too bad. However, when we ordered it again a month or so ago, we only found 3 halfs on the plate. We thought perhaps 1 half fell on the kitchen floor or something. Anyway, when we ordered it again on a more recent visit, there were still 3 halfs only.  Inflation had spirited away half a soft shell crab although price stayed at $5.50 a portion. Sheesh!

There are many costs of doing business and rent is a big one here. Rental rates in Singapore have been going up and up. Thus far, the only sector that has seen a decline in rent is in prime office space due to more than ample supply. There were signs very early on which is why I have been underweighting this sector in my porfolio of S-REITs. However, we can expect this sector to recover rapidly if the global economy picks up again. Just bear in mind that office tenants are a rather footloose bunch.

SPH's Clementi Mall.

Generally, however, it is a very good time to be landlords. For the vast majority of us who are not financially able to participate by owning shops and buildings directly, investing in selected S-REITs and SPH is the next best thing. In fact, some might say it is even better as we do not have to worry about the day to day operations of the properties. Well, there are pros and cons, to be sure.

There are many voices out there and we have many choices. However, we have to always remember not to be intimidated by all the information being stuffed in our faces. What is worse than having no information? It is to be drowning in too much information.

Know what matters. Everything else is just noise, is it not?

Related posts:
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Low interest rates' a double whammy for some.

Central banks in many large economies around the world are keeping interest rates really low, near zero in countries like the USA and Japan, in fact. Low interest rates are seen as the way to encourage economic growth by making borrowings cheaper.

To revive their sickly economies, the relevant countries' low interest rates could be instrumental. However, as money would go to where it is treated best, a lot of this cheap money is finding its way to Asia. Although the USA would like to see inflation in their economy, their money printing has also caused inflation in Asian economies.

Declining value of the US$. Source: Wikipedia.

The low interest rate environment is hurting people who save. They get less interest income for their savings and they are also impacted by higher prices like everyone else. They are being paid less and forced to spend more! A double whammy!

Savers have to put their money to work if they want to be paid more than the paltry interest rates on savings offered by the banks. This means taking on risks by investing their savings. This sounds simple enough but we have to remember that not everyone should be taking risks. What about the elderly?

I get worried when my mother and others her age are telling me now that they should invest their money in real estate, bonds or the stock market because they are getting next to nothing for their savings in their bank accounts. Do they have a choice?

Related posts:
1. Perpetual bonds: Good or bad?
2. Money continues to flow into Singapore.
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Stocks rise, Neptune Orient gains
Tuesday, 27 March 2012

© 2012 - The Edge Singapore

Economics 2012: Off the top of my head.

I have been doing more thinking. OK, so what's new?

In recent weeks, the stock markets rallied and with the strong closing on Wall Street last night, they look like they could move even higher next week.

The bulls say that the tide has turned and things are moving higher from here and that we should buy stocks on pull backs. The bears say that what we have seen recently is just a bear market rally from oversold positions and that stock markets will see new lows in time.

Both bulls and bears are looking into their crystal balls and coming up with reasons why they are going to be right. My own crystal ball is cloudy and I doubt it works at all.

However, drawing from what I have read in the news, it seems like the eurozone crisis is far from over. Banks in the eurozone are still trying to shore up their capital requirements and being significant lenders in Asia, accounting for some 20% of commercial loans here, negative ramifications could manifest themselves more remarkably in time. Being asked to write off huge chunks of Greek debt has made a difficult situation worse. Now, they are worried about Portugal.

Long-term interest rates of Euro countries, 1993-2011

The eurozone's unemployment rate has hit a new high and in Spain alone, unemployment stands at more than 22%. Recessionary pressure in Europe has already affected Asia as export volumes in China shrank. Smaller companies are experiencing problems with cashflow and a lack of credit. Countries here are all forecasting lower growth in 2012 with a possibility of even negative growth if the eurozone crisis should escalate.

Apparently, the ECB has been providing very low interest rate loans to eurozone banks in recent months. Instead of lending to businesses and individuals, however, the eurozone banks are parking the money in government bonds with higher interest rates. They would have to think twice about such a strategy. If they could be arm twisted into accepting a Greek debt haircut, it could happen with Portugal or even Spain and Italy, couldn't it?

The eurozone is a mess but it is an important part of the global economy. As a bloc, it is the largest trading partner for many countries here in Asia. Its problems are not its own as they will overspill and take on new forms in Asia.

Already, shipping firms are not going to do well due to excess capacity, anaemic demand and higher operating costs. I just learned that the anticipated pick up in demand from China after the holidays did not materialise and this is a cause for worry. Firms which are heavily leveraged could even go into bankruptcy if credit dries up.

Property developers are not going to do well due to government intervention in efforts to subdue runaway prices. This has both social and political considerations as well, of course. In China, the government has expressed its desire to keep measures in place as it feels that home prices should fall another 30% or so. Many investors in various guises will feel the pain and some might even die from it.

Banks have been under pressure as the very low interest rate environment affects their earnings while deteriorating macro economics could see a slow down in demand for banking services in their various forms. Already, investment banking has seen massive retrenchment exercises and it does not look like it is going to stop.

Fundamentally, I find it hard to be optimistic about 2012. Technically, I feel that the stock market could see a test of its lows once more before moving higher. I know I am sticking my neck out and putting it on a chopping block here but it is just how I feel right now.

In case you are wondering, I still believe in being pragmatic and not being bearish or bullish. Hence, although I have been divesting as the stock market rallied, I remain more than 50% invested. Yes, I still believe that 50% is a good number in such uncertain times.

People who have exited the market and are 100% in cash will see their wealth being eroded in time by higher inflation. The longer it drags on, the more detrimental it is going to be. As a prominent banker once said, it is very expensive to be in cash these days.

People who are almost fully invested in the market are shouldering a heavy risk premium too. If things should take an abrupt and powerful turn for the worse, they could lose much of their wealth in a very short time. They would also lack the resources to buy stocks on the cheap.

In the weeks prior to the current market rally, I accumulated various stocks at lower prices including the purchase of LMIR nil paid rights. As prices rose, I divested either wholely or partially to lock in gains.

As prices rose higher, I even cut some losses on some badly timed purchases months ago. As you can imagine, I have been recovering quite a bit of money from the stock market.

So, do I think this is a time to sell and not to buy? Nothing like that. I simply think it is a time to go back to being 50% invested. Since I was more than 70% invested after all the buying I did in the weeks leading to the current market rally, the thing for me to do was to sell. I might sell more next week if prices go higher.

On hindsight, which is always perfect, I started selling a bit too soon. Quite a few counters saw higher prices after I sold at what I thought were strong resistance levels. Do I chase and buy back? Nope. Why?

Buying as prices go higher is similar to selling as prices go lower. I don't do it. I buy at supports and sell at resistance. It is not a perfect strategy, surely, as supports and resistance could give way. However, going against this strategy has proven more damaging than beneficial most of the time. This is true for me, at least.

Now, with my war chest fuller, what do I intend to do? As usual, look ahead and wait for opportunities to buy again at supports. Patience is a virtue and mostly a rewarding one too.

Related posts:
Refer to right sidebar and look for the heading "Stock Market Strategies".

Double dip recession or just very slow growth?

Stock markets around the world had a very bad week. Everyone it seems is expecting a global recession and the accompanying deflation.

In a truly deflationary environment, all assets will suffer and see their prices fall. Equities and precious metals were all sold down across the board, therefore.

However, reading an article in Bloomberg, it is interesting to note that in the USA, "railroads shipments are the highest in almost three years." This defies concerns of an impending double dip recession.

Art Hatfield, a transportation analyst in Memphis, Tennessee, at Morgan Keegan & Co: “We’re not seeing declines in rail volumes that are synonymous with a recession... We remain in a slow growth environment.”
Read article: here.

If we were to look at the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), we see it rising in recent weeks and I wrote a piece on whether it could be time to load up on shares of Courage Marine again not too long ago.

The suggestion is that there is an increase in demand for shipping capacity and because "dry bulk primarily consists of materials that function as raw material inputs to the production of intermediate or finished goods, ... the index is also seen as an efficient economic indicator of future economic growth and production. The BDI is termed a leading economic indicator because it predicts future economic activity." Source: Wikipedia.

So, is there going to be a double dip recession after all? There are analysts who believe that a recession is a given and some who believe that Europe will get its act together and a recession will be averted. With such conflicting signs, at this point in time, however, it is just a sea of opinions.

Personally, I do not believe in being overly bullish or overly bearish. I believe in being pragmatic. Putting all our chips on a single bet either way could be quite disastrous if we should be proven wrong.

What is being pragmatic? Knowing what the current conditions are, what kind of investments are likely to do better and act accordingly. It is about wealth preservation, if not growth.

Related posts:
1. Courage Marine: Added at 10.5c a share.
2. Should we be staying invested or in cash?
3. Sleep well at night with a plan.
4. Why do I not panic?