Indofood Agri: Rebounding.

Indofood Agri Resources assured investors that PT SIMP’s listing will not dilute its earnings as much as analysts had feared. So, is this a good time to go picking up some shares of the company?

A long white candle was formed on the back of high volume today as price broke resistance at $1.69 to close higher at $1.71. The MFI and RSI have been spotting a positive divergence with its declining share price and we could see the rebound in price test the next resistance at $1.78.

This counter's downtrend is still very much intact and if I were to go long here, I would choose to do so as close to the immediate support of $1.69 as possible. I would also watch the declining 20dMA and the trendline resistance as possible price targets for divestment. Good luck to all involved.

Indofood Agri up after it downplays unit’s IPO.

Indofood Agri said its earnings per share in 2010 will be 835 rupiah ($0.12) after the IPO, down from 974 rupiah previously. However, its net asset value per shares after the listing would rise to 7,843 rupiah from 7,605 rupiah.

Wednesday, 01 June 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Indofood Agri: A crash by any other word.

Indofood Agri's decision to list PT SIMP, its subsidiary, could lead to earnings dilution and we could see EPS reducing by as much as 12%. This is according to Goldman Sachs. Indofood Agri's share price, however, declined some 15.7% today, closing at $1.72 after touching a low of $1.69. Could there be an opportunity to buy some shares on the cheap?

I do not understand what is going on sufficiently and how the valuation is being carried out. Therefore, I will avoid. Good luck to anyone vested.

Indofood Agri falls on unit’s IPO pricing. “The IPO could pose downside risks to our IFAR earnings estimates through potential EPS dilution, as well as possible holding company discount once its main operating asset is listed separately,” said Goldman Sachs in a report.
Monday, 23 May 2011

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Golden Agri, Kencana Agri and IndoAgri.

Crude Palm Oil has crossed the RM3,000 mark today. The long term resistance at around RM 2,780 which was taken out days ago is most probably the new support now.  The fortunes of CPO counters should continue to improve.

If not for its problems with the environmentalists, I expect Golden Agriculture to be a big beneficiary to strengthening CPO price.  If it loses more customers like it did in the past, it might not be able to ride on the improving CPO price firmly like the rest.  Technically, Golden Agriculture is correcting from overbought conditions.  It should see support at 61c and that would be a safer entry price.

A friend sent me an email a couple of weeks ago, maybe more, which he received from his broker. His broker recommended a buy on Kencana Agriculture which is much smaller than Golden Agriculture in many ways. Looking at the charts now, I am wary of this counter because it seems to display classic signs of negative divergence between price and volume, price and MACD, price and MFI as well as price and RSI.  The shorter term 20dMA seems to be flattening.  Could this loss of momentum suggest something more ominous?

IndoAgri has clear signs of being overbought.  $2.44 is the top of a double bottom like formation and it is also where the 20dMA is approximating soon. When we look at the Fibo lines, it is also the 138.2% line. It is the support to watch in case of a retreat in price. A fair entry price? It could be but it does not mean that price could not retreat further.  The longer term uptrend support is where the 100dMA is approximating.  This is currently about $2.31.

My very first post on Golden Agriculture:
Why Golden Agriculture?

Golden Agriculture: Eyeing immediate support.

Anyone who has been following my blog would know that I have a preference for Golden Agriculture over Indofood Agri.  The former is more of a pure CPO play and I have said that demand for oil will improve over time even in a weak economic recovery.  Therefore, CPO is a natural beneficiary.  As Golden Agriculture is the most levered to the price of CPO amongst all the CPO companies listed on the Singapore Exchange, fundamentally, it would outperform if CPO price stays high. In terms of valuation, Golden Agriculture remains the least expensive CPO play as well.

Today, its price closed at 57.5c which is where we find the rising 20dMA. Although the MACD is declining and has completed a bearish crossover with the signal line, it is interesting to note that OBV has formed a higher lower.  It seems that distribution is weakening.  Of course, the higher high on the MFI is still valid.

Drawing an uptrend line from the low of 7 Jun, it is easy to see that a support that approximates the rising 50dMA. This should be a very strong support.  However, it might not be tested if the 100dMA holds up as immediate support at 55.5c.

Indofood Agri target lowered to $2.31 by Daiwa. Daiwa notes management’s warning of weaker margin for cooking oil in 3Q10 due to 5% price cut at end June. Keeps Hold call: “While we are bullish about the palm-oil sector, our main concern is IFAR’s relative valuation compared with those of its peers.”


Thursday, 12 August 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

By OCBC Investment Research, 12 Aug 10:
Golden Agriculture: Company Update.

Related post:
Why Golden Agriculture?