There is a very interesting article in the weekend edition of The Business Times. It is by Cai Haoxiang and he asks the question "What asset do you flee to when the world collapses?"
We have heard people saying that bonds are now a bad idea and that equities are preferred. So, many are invested and even fully invested in the stock market. No emergency fund? No war chest?
Singaporeans, of course, have a never ending love affair with real estate with many thinking that real estate prices on our tiny island will only see prices going higher.
Someone told me that there is never a bad time to buy a property. Well, never say never. Those who bought a property here before the Asian Financial Crisis in the late 90s just broke even recently.
Then, there are the bears who believe that a correction is overdue and that the longer the bulls continue charging, the bigger the correction is going to be.
There are people who do not believe in the rally. What are they doing? Staying 100% or close to 100% in cash and waiting to buy assets on the cheap.
However, in a situation where the world economy really collapses like in 1929, who wins?
"... how long can Singapore survive if there is a sustained global economic crisis? With zero natural resources and an economy heavily dependent on global trade flows, Singapore's economy is especially vulnerable when nobody wants to trade and people worry about clean water and edible plants, not chemicals and electronics.
"In rich, sophisticated Singapore populated with financiers, lawyers and plenty of middle managers, skills actually useful to survive an economic collapse might be startlingly in short supply...
"Build up a set of skills and contacts that people will want in good times and bad and you will never go hungry for as long as you live."
We could have tons of money, even gold and silver coins. Could they be worth more than food and clean water if these should suffer from scarcity? If Singapore's economy should go into a tailspin, would the FTs still want to come here? Who would rent all the spanking new condominiums which have been built? Could we see vacancy rate in the double digits?
"... gold can't be eaten... try convincing the chicken rice seller to take your Bitcoins as you fend off squatters from your multiple properties."
A sobering read with a dash of humour. Get a copy of this weekend's edition of The Business Times. The article is on page 5.
Disclosure:
AK71 is a shareholder of SPH. Every copy of The Business Times sold could contribute to AK71's financial well-being.
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