Wilmar: Buy or sell?

Today, one person asked me if she should still buy Wilmar's shares while another person asked me where is the first resistance level in case share price continues to rise. One person is thinking of putting in a long position while another person is thinking of possibly divesting.

Daily chart

It is obvious to any chartist that Wilmar's share price broke resistance.

On the daily chart, the descending 200dMA at $3.62 or so is where we would find the next resistance level. The 200dMA could push share price down in the near term. It has that ability. If that should happen, then, it presents a chance for anyone who missed the boat earlier to buy in.

Weekly chart

If the 200dMA could be overcome, then, looking at the weekly chart, we see the next significant resistance provided by the declining 50w MA. In very bullish circumstances, we could see the 100w MA tested in due course. The longer term technicals are supportive of this but it could take weeks for it to happen. If this should happen, it would be a nice price for divestment, wouldn't it?

Related post:
Wilmar: Smart money outflow is reversing.

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Not enough money to be married!

Over the weekend, I was told of a person in his early 30s who is married and has two children. He is regularly borrowing money from his family and friends. In fact, he would borrow from friends to pay the installments on the mortgage of his 5 room HDB flat as well. Amount? S$800 a month.

I am not married and I wouldn't know but with an annual gross income of some S$28K, is it tough to support a family of four in Singapore? It seems that this is the case for this man.

The wife stays home and takes care of the two children who are still attending primary school. It is reasonable to assume that the two children would probably be financially dependent on him for another ten years at least.

I fear that I might sound heartless for saying this but this person really should not have gotten married in the first instance. Making the mistake of getting married, he should have applied for a smaller 3 room HDB flat instead of a 5 room HDB flat which probably cost twice as much. Then, making the mistake of applying for a bigger flat, he should have deferred the decision to have children.

All the romantic notions of a perfect marriage, a spacious home and lovely kids have to be built on rock solid finances, especially in a city like Singapore which has very high cost of living. This is the hard truth.

We have heard of marriage counselling for couples who have serious differences. However, the Catholic Church, I know, provides pre-marriage counselling for would be couples as well. This is a very good idea, I feel. However, that is probably only on an emotional and religious level.

Building on this, I believe that there should be financial advisory services for people thinking of tying the knot so that people do not find themselves in a hole after getting married. Such services should be secular in nature and be made available to all people thinking of getting married. Do such services exist?

If we do a search online for "not enough money for wedding", we will find some websites telling us not to worry and how we could go ahead with it. Where is the common sense in this?

If there is not enough money for a wedding, the two people do not have enough money to be married.

Related posts:
1. Wage slaves should be fearful.
2. Why is Warren Buffet the world's greatest money maker?

It is official! Fiscal Cliff averted!

Mr. Market is in a good mood! The Fiscal Cliff has been averted!

As global stock markets made their 2013 debut, the House of Representatives passed a deal between the White House and Senate Republicans to raise taxes on the rich and put off automatic $109 billion budget cuts for two months.

The deal passed the Senate early on Tuesday, but its fate hung in the balance for hours as House conservatives sought to amend it to include big spending cuts, which would likely have killed it.

In the end, the House voted 257 votes to 167 to pass the original bill with minority Democrats joining a smaller number of majority Republicans to pass the legislation after a bitterly contested and unusual session on New Year's Day.

President Barack Obama planned to make brief remarks at the White House within minutes of passage of the deal, which relieved investors who feared that continued logjam could have sent global stock markets spinning.

Read full article: here.

What a fantastic start to the new year! Happy New Year!

Related post:
President Obama wins! What next?

Marco Polo Marine: A neglected gem.

I have revealed how I diverted some resources away from S-REITs to invest in certain stocks which I feel are undervalued and have the potential for some meaningful capital gains in subsequent months.

DBS Vickers thinks that mid cap offshore plays could catch up with the large caps as risk appetite improves and the industry fundamentals remain strong. I share those sentiments.

Their top picks are Ezion, ASL Marine Holdings and Ezra Holdings.

My pick? Marco Polo Marine.

Persistent insider buying in Marco Polo Marine caught my eyes six months ago. When insiders increase their shares in large quantities, we must suspect that something good is brewing.

UOB is of the opinion that a new upcycle has begun for the OSV sector. This is supported by OCBC which revealed that the OSV to rig ratio will start falling in 2013 and this will favour vessel owners.

Marco Polo Marine together with its 49% owned Indonesian subsidiary ventured into the OSV sector in 2010 and currently own seven OSVs. Net profit received a leg up from their Indonesian subsidiary and doubled QoQ recently.

The scheduled listing of its Indonesian subsidiary on Indonesia Stock Exchange this month is likely to add some 30% to the NAV of Marco Polo Marine, according to Maybank KimEng.

Now, what does all this mean for Marco Polo Marine's current share price? It is too cheap.

ASL Marine Holdings last traded at 67.5c a share and its PER is about 8.9x. For Marco Polo Marine to trade at a PER of about 8.0x, its share price has to be about 50.5c. This is, in fact, conservative because EPS in 2013 is likely to be higher which means a PER of 8.0x will translate into a higher share price. Marco Polo Marine last traded at 38.5c a share.

This is just the beginning. If we believe that a new upcycle has just begun, then, the sector will continue to be upgraded. Indeed, analysts at DBS Vickers have a 12 months price target of 90c for ASL Marine Holdings.

Where would we see Marco Polo Marine's share price then? I wonder.

Related posts:
1. Marco Polo Marine: Persistent insider buying.
2. Marco Polo Marine: Patience will be rewarded.

See: Marco Polo Marine's insider trades here.

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Eat Right 4 Your Type for a Healthy New Year!

I suggested to a friend who has been feeling lethargic of late to try eating right for his blood type. This is something I started doing a couple of years ago. Although it is hard to say if it is psychological, I always feel better when I eat what I am supposed to based on my blood type.

Better? Yes, I would feel less bloated. My nose would also stay clear instead of mucousy. The back of my throat would not itch. There is a general sense of well-being when I follow the blood type diet.

Here is a quick introduction:

There are connections among blood type, food, and disease.

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You could borrow the book from a public library near you if you are interested in finding out more or, if you would like to have a personal copy, consider buying a pre-owned copy from BetterWorldBooks. Price starts from US$9.98 a copy. They ship free globally.

See:
Eat Right 4 Your Type Complete Blood Type Encyclopedia: The A-Z Reference Guide for the Blood Type Connection to Symptoms, Disease

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ASSI is an affiliate of BetterWorldBooks.

Here is wishing all readers

a Happy and Healthy New Year!

Why is Warren Buffett the world's greatest money maker?

I want to thank Kelvin for providing the link to this video which I enjoyed very much.  

Anyone who is interested in a quick introduction to Warren Buffet's life and how he got to be the world's richest man would find this 47 minutes video worth watching.





Although it should be common knowledge to any experienced investor, I would like to draw attention to how 

Warren Buffet had no qualms about investing in something he was against as long as it offered good value and a chance to make decent money. 

This is somewhere 40 minutes 30 seconds into the video and it highlights the importance of being open minded and not being parochial.







Interested in the book Warren Buffet referred to in the documentary? 

You can get it pre-owned from BetterWorldBooks at a bargain with free shipping worldwide. 

See:
Intelligent Investor: The Classic Text on Value Investing

Related posts:
1. Recommended books for FA and TA.
2. Be cautious even as we accept higher risk.

Selling everything to buy more silver!

The latest issue of The EDGE provided me with much food for thought. However, the article on buying physical silver ended with a paragraph which if ingested might require us to take some digestive enzymes.

"There's going to be another big crash, we are really near it now," said Chin Kuan Yew, a businessman ... who sold all his properties, including his condominium, to buy more metal. "You have on the one hand the US printing money and the European Union is on the brink of collapse."

Although I advocate that all who can afford to do so should have 5% of their wealth in physical gold and silver as a form of insurance against the inherent flaws of fiat currencies, I feel that Mr. Chin is being somewhat extreme.

Selling his properties could be a good move because with the ongoing aggressive building, it is more likely than not that we would see a situation of oversupply in Singapore in the coming years which would mean lower rental rates and lower property prices.

Having most of his wealth in precious metals, however, smells of paranoia.

Related posts:
1. Gold and silver: Still important assets to own.
2. Never lose money in real estate and REITs?
3. Buy gold and silver as insurance.

Lightweight and good looking @ US$66.99 each:
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Tea with AK71: Casio watch and The Price is Right!

In my last Tea with AK71 blog post which was about a vintage Rolex watch, I revealed in the comments section that I travel with a Casio watch. In case you think that it is a digital watch, think again.

I have not bought a digital watch since my Smash watch died years ago. I rather prefer analogue as they seem to harken back to the good old days.

My travelling companion.

I bought this watch because it just looks so clean and its bezel looks like a Rolex. How much, you ask? Let's play a game. Why not make a guess and leave your answer in the comments section?

We will see whose answer is the closest to the actual price I paid for the watch. Reminds me of the game show, The Price is Right!

Eligibility:
All ASSI readers are eligible to take part in this game. Employees of CASIO Worldwide, members of the immediate families and/or persons living in the same household as such persons and CASIO Worldwide associated agencies are not eligible to take part in this game. ;-p

Related post:
Tea with AK71: Vintage Rolex watches.

Tea with AK71: Vintage Rolex watches.

I recently have a new routine. I would wind a vintage Rolex watch every night. Yes, quaint, isn't it?

I have automatic watches, solar powered watches and, of course, the ubiquitous quartz movement watches. A manually wound watch? I haven't had one since my primary school days more than three decades ago.

Shortly after acquiring the watch, I spent some time online trying to find the exact year of its manufacture. I know, from what I found, that it has to be more than 20 years old but it could also be more than 60 years old. I was able to finally determine its age from its serial numbers.

My vintage Rolex Oysterdate 6694.

The watch was manufactured in the year 1956 which means that it is some 15 years older than me!

The watch is from a time when life was a bit less hectic than it is today, perhaps. It was a time when people would have the patience to wind their watches, perhaps. For sure, the internet did not exist then and information most probably flowed more slowly.

The daily winding of the watch is quite therapeutic, I have found. It helps to focus my mind on something simple for a few moments each day. It has a very calming effect.

When I showed the watch to my father, he said that only the rich could afford a watch like this during those days. It would have cost S$400 - S$600 when he was a young man and that was a lot of money back then. A clerk made only S$200 or so a month in those days.

A quick search on eBay for similar Rolex watches found asking prices of between US$1,600 to US$2,990. The only unit available from the same era as the one I have was asking for the highest price of US$2,990. Antiques have higher valuations, I guess.

A friend said that it is creepy that I should have such an old watch and not know who were the owners before me. I don't feel that way. This is a piece of history and I am privileged to be its new custodian.

Related posts:
1. Bought a new car.
2. Parting with an old friend.
3. Money well spent.

2012 full year passive income from S-REITs.

After a few requests by readers for me to blog about my 2012 full year passive income from S-REITs, I was pleasantly surprised to receive advice from a reader that I should not blog about it. Since I was of two minds whether to go ahead, I started a poll on 11 December to see what readers want. The poll ran for two weeks, ending on Christmas Day.

Readers have spoken and here is the blog post by popular demand.

This year, I sold some of my investments in S-REITs as their unit prices moved higher and their distribution yields compressed. Of course, the plan is to possibly increase my long exposure again should their unit prices experience any significant correction. If their unit prices were to continue moving higher, my portfolio would continue to benefit from capital gains.

However, higher unit prices would create a problem as my remaining long positions in S-REITs are part of my core investments for income which means that if I were to further divest even partially, I might not be able to achieve my target annual passive income level. Some might say that this is a happy problem to have but it remains a problem.

I also made an opportunistic purchase of units in Saizen REIT when its unit price plunged 15% as its warrants expired middle of the year. So, I was able to increase my long exposure to the REIT again at a relatively attractive average price, locking in a rather high distribution yield of 9+% on cost, almost quadrupling my position in the REIT within a few days. This highlights the importance of having a war chest ready to seize opportunities when they present themselves. Saizen REIT is once again an important part of my portfolio of investments for income.

An apartment building in Japan owned by Saizen REIT.

My five largest investments in S-REITs are now:

1. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT
2. Sabana REIT
3. Saizen REIT
4. First REIT
5. Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust

I also have five smaller long positions in:

6. Cache Logistics Trust (CLT)
7. Cambridge Industrial Trust (CIT)
8. Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT)
9. Suntec REIT
10. Keppel REIT (formerly K-REIT)

An advance distribution from First REIT was paid out on 26 December because of a private placement and this bumps up (and distorts) total income received in 2012 from S-REITs a bit.

Overall, despite some divestments to lock in capital gains, my larger investments in Saizen REIT (due to aggressive buying as its unit price plunged middle of the year) and LMIR (due to aggressive buying of nil-paid rights a year ago) resulted in higher total income from S-REITs this year.

Total income received from S-REITs for the year 2012:
S$ 123,873.80

In the year 2013, with regards to S-REITs, I will fill my war chest while waiting for potential rights issues as well as opportunities to buy more at lower prices.

With First REIT having made an advance distribution, I could receive less income from the REIT in 2013. There is also possible dilution of DPU from First REIT's private placement. The DPU dilutive actions of LMIR this year and the weakening JPY which should impact income from Saizen REIT in S$ negatively would all put some downward pressure on my total passive income from S-REITs in 2013.

Definitely, it is almost impossible now to get a 10% or even a 9% distribution yield from S-REITs. We could in fact continue to see yield compression as central banks around the world are bent on increasing monetary supply.

Any correction in the unit prices of S-REITs would probably see opportunistic buying as they remain a compelling proposition in the current low interest rate environment. Sentiments having turned decidedly positive on S-REITs. Mean reversions could become less probable.

To all readers on the same journey to passive income generation, this has been a very good year for our portfolio of S-REITs.

Congratulations!

Related posts:
1. 2011 full year passive income from S-REITs.
2. $120K annual passive income from S-REITs next?
3. Saizen REIT: Why did I buy and would I buy more?
4. Staying positive on S-REITs.
5. Made and still making money from S-REITs.
6. REITs: When to buy?
7. Never lose money in real estate and REITs?

Counting our blessings.

I overheard a conversation two women were having while I was waiting for my bee hoon to be prepared. One of them is concerned that her son wants to get a license for riding motorcycles because his friends are all doing it. The other one, with a sharp intake of breath, immediately launched into an argument against it.

"Aiyoh, ride motorcycle very dangerous one. Flesh wrap steel leh. If car bang into you, sure die one. If not die also badly injured. Maybe, become handicap for life liao. One arm gone or one leg gone. Worse, maybe become a vegetable! Then how? Tell him don't lah. Learn to drive car better. At least steel wrap flesh. Got protection. You can afford mah. Offer to buy him a car lah."

Lucky boy.

I remember when I asked a student of mine why did he want a motorcycle rider license, he told me it was so that he could work and make some money. I was curious and asked him to tell me more. He told me that his family income was very low and, being the eldest, he should try to share the burden. Having a license meant he could help to distribute newspapers for his father when his father who was not well was unable to work. It also meant he could be a part time courier and fast food delivery boy.

The conversation the two women had triggered this memory in me and I decided to share it here in my blog to remind all of us to count our blessings during this festive season and, if we can afford to do so, consider making a donation to a charity of our choice.

I recently revealed in a reply to SnOOpy168 a list of charities which I make donations to annually in Singapore. The charity which I have the softest spot for is Singapore Children's Society because children are probably the most helpless. They are the most innocent and have no way of supporting themselves. Very often, they are also the most easily abused.

To find out more about Singapore Children's Society and to make a donation, please go to:
Singapore Children's Society.

For greater convenience, donations can also be made online using a credit card.

While I am at it, if you are thinking of buying books in future, do consider helping the environment and funding literacy for the less fortunate at the same time by visiting BetterWorldBooks:



Find out more about BetterWorldBooks at:
ASSI is an affiliate of BetterWorldBooks.

Have a blessed Christmas!

A Christmas collection of charts.

Hello Kitty Christmas Tree!
Minneapolis - St. Paul International Airport

It is now the evening of Christmas and I have spent Christmas Eve and the whole of Christmas Day at home. I slept a lot and drank a lot of herbal tea. I ate mostly porridge. You guessed it. I am ill.

Here are some charts and my gut feel. Not much rigour but in the spirit of Christmas, I hope readers would be a bit more forgiving.

Target: 28c.

Target: 42c.

Target: $1.10

Target: $3.90

Target: 62.5c

Target: 83c

Take note that these are weekly charts and I am not expecting to make any fast money.

Ho, ho, ho! Merry Christmas!

Second Chance Properties Ltd.

In reply to a comment from Desmond: here.

Some have said that Second Chance Properties Ltd is a company that is REIT like. This perception could be due to the fact that much of its success stems from its timely investments in real estate at depressed prices.

They announced an annual dividend of 3.3c and a special dividend of 0.5c this year. NAV/share is 35.72c. So, buying some shares closer to the NAV/share would give an attractive dividend yield, discounting the special dividend. At the last closing price of 40c/share, a 3.3c dividend would be a nice 8.25% dividend yield if the payout should be repeated next year. Seems like a decent proposition.

However, I would draw attention to its earnings per share (EPS) which has declined year on year. For 12 months ended June 2011, EPS was 7.2c. For the 14 months ended August 2012, EPS was 5.62c. 2 more months of earnings and EPS was actually 22% lower? Has its earnings declined? Although not comparable, for want of any available alternative, its net profit actually improved 1.37% for the period reported.

So, it could only mean that the number of shares in issue has increased significantly. As the founding family of the company has 81% of its shares and routinely accept dividends in scrip plus the fact that there are many outstanding warrants (expiring in 2013 and 2017), further dilution of EPS is to be expected, all else remaining equal.

Valuation of a company's shares could be based on many things. However, let us look at P/E ratio which is used more during good times compared to NAV/share. At its highest in June 2011, it was 39c/share and with an EPS of 7.2c then, its P/E ratio was 5.42x. Share price went to a high of 45c as punters chased its shares after the dividend announcement. With EPS at 5.62c, its P/E ratio was 8x then.

Now, closing at 40c/share in the last session, using the EPS of 5.62c, its P/E ratio is 7.12x. With a P/E ratio of 8x or lower, shares of Second Chance Properties Ltd. do not seem expensive. Why does Mr. Market not ascribe a higher value to the company then? Ah, good question.

They always say that the market is forward looking. If I were to hazard a guess, I would say that Mr. Market is concerned about the potential dilution to the EPS of the company which could, of course, lower dividend payout per share in future. With an increasing number of shares in issue, it is also hard to expect greater upside in share price as valuation per share finds little improvement.

Would I buy shares of Second Chance Properties Ltd.? I would, as usual, question my motivation for thinking about investing in a stock. Am I after income or growth? As an investment for income, with the company's track record, it is likely that they would continue to pay dividends. However, unlike S-REITs, there is less certainty. Also, with declining EPS, it is possible that dividend per share could reduce in future.

As an investment for growth, we have to be prepared for some headwind as real estate prices have very likely peaked. With more supply coming on stream, rental rates and property values could face downward pressure in the coming years. This coupled with economic malaise that is expected in the near future could also see retail businesses affected negatively.

All in all, I would say that Second Chance Properties Ltd. is in a position of strength and should be able to weather the economic malaise ahead.

If we are able to accept the potential dilution of EPS and its possible effect on dividend payout per share, and if we are not overly concerned about the probable lack of meaningful appreciation in future share price, this seems like a good company to invest in.

See financial report: here.

Related posts:
1. Don't be a yield pig. Be a hardy pig.
2. Be cautious as we accept higher risks.
3. Good debt is always good?
4. Mr Market is always right.
5. Never lose money in real estate and REITs?