Crude oil to hit US$100

I've mentioned before that Darryl Guppy predicted that crude oil will hit US$100 after Christmas based on TA. Now, from a FA perspective, John Kilduff, co-chief investment officer of Round Earth Capital said on 24 Dec 09 that:

"I'm worried about several geopolitical fronts out there that are going to stoke crude oil prices. I think first above $85 real quickly [in 2010], and then I see oil possibly at $100 by the first half of the year."

A strong outlook for crude oil would limit any downside in the price of crude palm oil. I continue to believe that there is limited downside (support is at 46c) for Golden Agriculture as it tries to break resistance at 50c.

Separately, this is taken from an article in Business Times (Malaysia), 25 Dec 09,
Palm oil prices up after 3 straight days of losses

Malaysian crude palm oil futures jumped 2.2 percent on Thursday, after three consecutive days of declines, as higher crude oil prices and a weaker U.S. dollar lifted the market.

The benchmark March contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange settled up RM54 to RM2,554 per tonne after going as high as RM2,573.

“Crude oil is bound to touch 80, sooner or later, and the palm oil traders left in the market are speculating on this,” said a dealer with a foreign commodities brokerage. “We are still quite strong on the demand-supply scenario.”

Expectations of a stock drawdown due to the end of the high production season supported the market. Traders expect stocks to fall about 13 percent to 1.68 million tonnes in December compared with the previous month.

I would accumulate Golden Agriculture on weakness, if any.

To queue for a $1 parking fee redemption

I was out the whole afternoon for lunch and tea with a couple of good friends. They are people who have developed naturally into good friends in recent years as we share similar interests in investing for a better future etc. However, even twin brothers have differences. It's normal.

One friend mentioned how he's impressed that I would queue to make a parking fee redemption of $1 at Vivo City. You know how Vivo City has this ingenious system where they store credits in an account which is linked to your car's IU? After he made the remark, it kind of stayed at the back of my mind. I started thinking.

Apart from the fact that I like to squirrel away reward points of any kind, I do enjoy bargains. I actually do not spend much money on myself and enjoy spending on people I love more. I am quite happy cooking for myself instant noodles or boiling a pot of barley or porridge for a meal. This is usually when I'm home alone. Yet, I enjoy little luxuries like chocolates and preserved mangoes, which are quite expensive. I refuse to employ domestic help and do my own laundry and cleaning. I wash my car myself instead of going to a car wash. Yes, I have a car which is a luxury but it's a practical Japanese brand car, nothing too luxurious. One tenet runs through all my monetary decisions in life: look for value for money as it's not really about affordability. When did I become like this? I can't say exactly but it probably happened in the last ten years. I can't remember being financially prudent in my younger days.

So, when I spend money on loved ones and see them happy, I think it's value for money. Going for a nice meal with my mom at a nice restaurant is money and time well spent, for example. When I buy chocolates and preserved mangoes, I buy them when there is a sale. I can afford sending my car for a car wash but I prefer to do it myself. I can afford a car with the four rings insignia but I rather not do it. I can probably afford to pay for parking but I choose to park for free. Hahaha... I think I'm getting predictable.

I think in all these observations, what another friend said to me is true, that I must learn how to enjoy the finer things in life and learn to spend more on myself. I still remember an outing with another friend when we walked past a Swatch outlet and I saw a nice Irony watch which I liked. Price: S$189. Not too pricey but I walked away. My friend told me I should buy it if I liked it. When I said I already have a few watches and I should not buy it, I got a scolding. Hahaha... I bought the watch in the end and I do like it but my favourite two watches are still the ones my parents gave me very early on in my working life.

I guess everything boils down to being happy. Happiness is never a science though.