Bought more VIVA Industrial Trust and worried.

Reader:
I learn of your blog from reading an article you wrote about Viva Industrial Trust for a magazine. 

I am very concerned now because I just bought more after reading research provided by my broker. 

The dividend is expected to increase. 

Is the land lease situation really bad?







60 years land lease from 1961.
Expiring in 2020, no extension is allowed.

AK:
I don't remember writing for any magazine or maybe I did but I just don't remember.

Whether an investment is good or not depends in part on the motivation of the investor. 

If you are invested in Viva Industrial Trust for income, you have to question not only how high the yield is, you have to question how sustainable it is going to be?





Can there be any other motivations for investing in Viva Industrial Trust? 

The belief that, perhaps, the manager could increase asset value and to sell assets to an unsuspecting (or gullible) party at a higher price before the land leases end? 

Of course, this would make the decision more a speculation than an investment.

I know what I have said does not sit well with everybody and I can even prove it. ;p

Hey, I am only a blogger and I anyhow talk to myself in my blog lah. 






Don't care me hor.

Listen to John Lim better. 

Who is John Lim? Who else?

In an interview, John Lim said there is an issue with the structure of the Singapore industrial property market. The land tenures are relatively short and valuations will fall because they are aligned to tenure. 

Not I say. 

John Lim say hor.






This is why Cache Logistics Trust is diversifying into Australia. 

Incidentally, so has AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT. 

Of course, we also have a new comer, Frasers Logistics and Industrial Trust which is a pure Australian play.

Related posts:
1. VIVA Industrial Trust's 9% yield.
2. AA, Soilbuild and VIVA REITs. 

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT challenged.

I have said before that AA REIT is not unique in the industrial REIT space. All industrial landlords in Singapore are facing difficulties presented by over supply and weaker demand. 

From the latest results presented by AA REIT, it is obvious that the difficult environment is not letting up anytime soon.

1. New and renewed leases are at a weighted average rental decrease of 4.3%.

2. Portfolio occupancy has declined from 94.6% to 91.0%.

Things are admittedly difficult but they are far from grim.



103 Defu Lane 10.





A competent management has kept gearing manageable at 36.3% and also managed to reduce overall blended funding cost to 3.6%.

Interest cover ratio is healthy at 4.9x and NAV per unit stands at $1.39.

We tend to be a bit less cautious when the stock market is doing better but it pays to go back to the fundamentals. Just two days ago:

http://singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.sg/2017/03/aims-amp-capital-industrial-reit-is.html

Remember, price is what we pay and value is what we get.

Also, try to put things in perspective. This is hardly a crisis.

http://singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.sg/2017/03/aims-amp-capital-industrial-reit-levels.html

Things would probably look up when 2 development projects (51 Marsiling Road and 8 Tuas Ave 20) are completed in 2H 2017.

30 Tuas West Road. Published on 20 July 2017.
Slides presentation: HERE