When would I invest in ESR-REIT again?

Reader says...
This is my first email to you although been following your blog for about 3 years.

You are an inspiration to me cause although you are 1 year younger than me but you have already achieve financial freedom long ago.






Understand that you have been blogging about not comfortable with ESR and VIva REIT but you also mention before an investment also depends on the price.

So I would like to find out from you at what level will you consider investing in ESR REIT.

Vanishing in less than 15 years.

AK says...
Absolutely no interest.

The whole deal is a godsend or a lifeline for VIVA (which is a ticking time bomb) but rubbish for ESR-REIT.

Yes, I think ESR-REIT got the shorter end of the stick and the shareholders paid for this and will continue to pay for it.






A big chunk of VIVA's portfolio have land leases which will expire within the next 15 to 20 years (see related post #2 at the end of this blog).

Another big chunk of their assets would see a drop in income as they convert from master leases to multi tenanted buildings.

Income support for UE Bizhub East is set to expire later this year.






ESR-REIT will be taking over this horror of a baby.

It would haunt them (mostly the common shareholders of ESR-REIT) later.

Of course, having said this, if there should be a big crash in price, maybe, then, I might take a look. ;p






Related posts:
1. Merger of ESR-REIT and VIVA.
2. VIVA more attractive with 9% yield?

Merger of ESR-REIT and VIVA Industrial Trust.

I have more than a handful of relatively small investments (i.e. anything smaller than $100,000 and usually smaller than $50,000 in size).

Some of them are legacy investments (i.e. leftovers from many years ago after selling off most of the investments) and ESR-REIT (formerly Cambridge Industrial Trust) was one of them.








The last time I blogged about this REIT was in June 2016.

Back then, I added to my investment in the REIT at 52.5 cents a piece.

After adding to my investment, still, it remained a smallish investment and I explained why in related post #1 at the end of this blog.








Well, I have decided to let go of my investment in the REIT.

Why?

Regular readers know that I have concerns about VIVA Industrial REIT. See related post #2 at the end of this blog.

I am uncomfortable that ESR-REIT and VIVA Industrial REIT are talking about merging.

I have enjoyed many years of income distributions and I will also enjoy a capital gain from the divestment.

So, everything taken into consideration, it is not a bad outcome.








This reminds me of the time when I let go of K-Green Trust (KGT) in 2014 when it was decided that they would merge with CitySpring Infrastructure Trust.

I didn't like CitySpring. 

What to do?

I cut KGT loose. See related post #3 at the end of this blog.






With this move, my total investment in REITs shrinks again and, everything else being equal, so will the income distributions I will be receiving from REITs this year.

Read:
ESR-REIT and VIVA in merger talks.

Related posts:
1. Cambridge Industrial Trust (June 2016).
2. VIVA Industrial REIT's short land leases.
3. KGT and CitySprings' unequal marriage.

Bought more VIVA Industrial Trust and worried.

Reader:
I learn of your blog from reading an article you wrote about Viva Industrial Trust for a magazine. 

I am very concerned now because I just bought more after reading research provided by my broker. 

The dividend is expected to increase. 

Is the land lease situation really bad?







60 years land lease from 1961.
Expiring in 2020, no extension is allowed.

AK:
I don't remember writing for any magazine or maybe I did but I just don't remember.

Whether an investment is good or not depends in part on the motivation of the investor. 

If you are invested in Viva Industrial Trust for income, you have to question not only how high the yield is, you have to question how sustainable it is going to be?





Can there be any other motivations for investing in Viva Industrial Trust? 

The belief that, perhaps, the manager could increase asset value and to sell assets to an unsuspecting (or gullible) party at a higher price before the land leases end? 

Of course, this would make the decision more a speculation than an investment.

I know what I have said does not sit well with everybody and I can even prove it. ;p

Hey, I am only a blogger and I anyhow talk to myself in my blog lah. 






Don't care me hor.

Listen to John Lim better. 

Who is John Lim? Who else?

In an interview, John Lim said there is an issue with the structure of the Singapore industrial property market. The land tenures are relatively short and valuations will fall because they are aligned to tenure. 

Not I say. 

John Lim say hor.






This is why Cache Logistics Trust is diversifying into Australia. 

Incidentally, so has AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT. 

Of course, we also have a new comer, Frasers Logistics and Industrial Trust which is a pure Australian play.

Related posts:
1. VIVA Industrial Trust's 9% yield.
2. AA, Soilbuild and VIVA REITs. 

AA REIT, Soilbuild REIT and VIVA Industrial Trust.

Reader:
may I check with you about AIMS AMP. Its DPU for last 2 quarters have been dropping. But you seem very optimistic about it. Do you think things will get better?


AK:
Management is very important.
There is little they can do about headwinds
But you have to compare it against other industrial REITs and you will see it shines


Rather than acquiring more properties to boost DPU, AA REIT focused on extracting maximum value from their assets.


Reader:
Oh. How would it fare against soilbuild?

AK:
Soilbuild had a stroke of bad luck
Very unfortunate

Reader:
The technics offshore company who vacated the place?

AK:
I like the Biz Parks they own
yup

Reader:
Ok, thank you. Will read more on ur posts of aims amp before deciding

AK:
Unlike very short lease biz park owned by VIVA in Chai Chee, Soilbuild's biz park have relatively long leases.

Reader:
Since Keppel D.C. Reit seems unpromising, I might just switch to AA

AK:
If the management sama sama as Keppel REIT, cham

Reader:
Yes.... I think I'm quite clueless as a industrial reit investor. When I read the viva report, I was quite impressed by it

AK:
People tell us good things only

Reader:
Only heard the other side of the story when I saw your post, even though you kena hantum by that one reader. Haha

AK:
I should talk less. 😞

Reader:
Haha no la. Should talk more. For the greater good
May I check if you've written any articles on assessing industrial reits? I mean, I know the usual of NPI, DPU, gearing, occupancy etc. But the short lease part is something that's new (but makes sense) to me

AK
Er... maybe. I cannot remember liao. Too much talking to myself until I blur.

Reader:
Haha. It's ok! Thank you. I'll search through your trains of thought via your articles

Related posts:
1. AA REIT levels up.
2. VIVA Industrial Trust.
3. Soilbuild REIT.

VIVA Industrial Trust more attractive with 9% yield?

Reader:
Any latest thoughts on Viva. The high yield attractive enough now?




AK:
You should question why is the yield relatively higher for VIT?

In my last blog on VIT, I mentioned the very short lease for their Chai Chee property as a concern. Of course, we know that they went ahead and bought another property in Toa Payoh with an even shorter lease. Alamak.

If we look at VIT's total gross floor area or total GFA (i.e. all their properties put together), 2.22 million square feet or 62% of total GFA have about 20 years or less to their land leases left. 






Will the land leases be extended and if extended, at what cost to unitholders? If you are thinking about investing in VIT or are already invested, this has to be a pertinent question.

If you think 20 years sounds like a relatively long time, take a closer look and you will see that of the 2.22 million square feet of GFA, almost 88% have about 14 years or less to their land leases left!

To be more exact, 1.95 million square feet have about 14 years or less to their land leases left! That is 54% of the REIT's total GFA!

How is that for a wake up call?





This means that 13 to 14 years from now, we could see half of VIT's distributable income vanishing into thin air. 

What would the 9% distribution yield or so at 77c a unit become then?

Cash flow would almost definitely take a plunge while we have to remember that the REIT's borrowings will probably stay the same since they are not amortized.

VIT's current gearing level is almost 40% and their interest cover ratio is about 4x. We don't even need rising interest rates to wreak havoc on VIT's numbers. If operational cash flow reduces by half or more, the REIT's interest cover ratio is in jeopardy.






I would rather sacrifice 1% yield and invest in AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT for a slightly lower 8% yield if I want exposure to Industrial S-REITs. Peace of mind is priceless.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT's current gearing level is about 35% and their interest cover ratio is about 5x. Stronger numbers? You bet.

I shared this during a workshop last year and again at a private event recently.

A REIT should think about improving the attributes of its assets which includes having longer land leases. 

Recycling capital by selling assets with shorter remaining land leases into assets with longer land leases, all else remaining equal, for example, is a sensible thing to do.





A good example would be the recent divestment of a property with a remaining land lease of 17 years by Cache Logistics Trust which used the proceeds to buy a freehold industrial property in Australia with a Net Property Income (NPI) yield of 7.4% with yearly rental escalation built in.

Being attracted by high yields could be like a moth being attracted to a candle flame if we are not careful.





Related post:
VIVA Industrial Trust not in my shopping list.

Why VIVA Industrial Trust not in AK's shopping list?

AK gets asked about VIVA Industrial Trust from time to time and why AK never blog about the REIT? Alamak. It happened again today. 

I decided to share this exchange I had with a reader and without saying too much, I hope it is clear enough:

Hi, AK

I have been your reader since 2013 when my trekking friends recommended you to me. You have been talking to yourself about REITs and i faithfully followed it. Thanks to your generous sharing,  I have benefited too. 

I have 87 lots during IPO and am thinking of switching them to other REITS.I searched for Viva Industrial Trust (T8B) in your blog, but i could not get any information about it at all.  If you are free, don't mind sharing some thought about Viva Industrial Trust (T8B). Or  Viva Industrial Trust (T8B) never in your shopping list at all.

Thank you very much for your time and please keep talking to yourself.

Thank you and wish you have a nice week ahead!!

Regards,

A

Hi A,

I looked at Viva before and I was going to publish a blog post on it in 2014 but decided not to. In essence, I wasn't interested in the REIT because:

1. I was not sure that UE Bizhub's valuation was realistic.

2. I didn't like that its Chai Chee property had 17 years left to its lease. Now, 15 years left.

3. I was wary of the massive financial engineering to boost dividend yield which would otherwise have been 25% lower.

I just didn't feel good about the REIT. I still don't.

Best wishes,AK


Other examples of financial engineering:
1. K-REIT: 17 for 20 rights issue.

2. OUE C-REIT.

A blog post on leasehold properties:
OUE H-Trust: Considerations and comparisons.