Ever since the CPFB introduced a colorful pie chart of our CPF savings a few years ago, I would look forward to mine every year like a teena...
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CapitaMalls Asia's volume expanded on a down day as the 50dMA was breached. It closed at $2.26, forming an inverted black hammer in the process, which happens to be another possible reversal signal.
OBV has declined but the overall trend of accumulation is still intact. MFI shows reduced buying momentum while the MACD has dipped below zero, signalling the end of positive momentum. Having said this, the picture of a low volume pullback has not changed.
Drawing Fibo lines to determine where the supports are in case the price does continue to decline shows the next support levels at $2.25 and $2.23. The low in February was established at $2.19 and should be a strong support if tested. The downside is still pretty limited, therefore.
Golden Agriculture breached the resistance at 57.5c and closed at 58c, forming a nice bullish white candle in the process. In my usual style, I partially divested at resistance on the way up and it's 57.5c in this case. I have put in a sell queue at the next resistance of 60c, the previous high.
Although price action formed a white candle today, the slight reduction in volume creates a bit of unease, especially when volume expanded on the STI as the index tumbled almost 46 points to close at 2,887.46.
OBV continues to rise and MFI has turned up, indicating continuing accumulation and a return of positive buying momentum. This is comforting. MACD has touched the signal line and a bullish crossover seems imminent.
------------------------------------------------------- Baker Says Palm Oil `Stands Out' Among Soft Commodities.
22 March 2010, Bloomberg.
In the last two sessions, I spoke of reversals for CapitaMalls Asia and Golden Agriculture and how their prices are likely to move higher.
CapitaMalls Asia disappoints today as its price closed at $2.29, supported by the 50dMA, forming a black hammer in the process. A black hammer is actually another possible reversal signal. The trading volume continues to decline which re-inforces the picture of a low volume pullback. The MFI turned down, forming a lower high while the OBV is more or less flat. All these suggest that the selling is half-hearted at best.
I continue to believe that buying at the current price has limited downside even though the buy signal on the MACD yesterday was negated today.
Golden Agriculture, on the other hand, put on a satisfying show of strength as it gapped up and closed at 57c, forming a bullish white candle in the process today. Volume has also expanded with the rise in price, suggesting some sustainability. The MACD's buy signal is confirmed as it moved upwards today, poised to do a bullish crossover with the signal line. OBV continues to rise, signalling ongoing accumulation.
MFI, however, continues to decline, suggesting weak buying momentum. We want to see the MFI turn up as that would signal a strengthening buying momentum. Otherwise, any appreciation in price might turn out to be mediocre.
Saizen REIT has a new substantial shareholder, Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Limited. Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Limited bought 2,149,000 units on 25 March 10, making it a substantial shareholder with 49,659,000 units or 5.2112 % of Saizen REIT. Percentage of issue share capital computed based on unit capital of 952,927,055 units. Saizen REIT closed unchanged at 16.5c today. Longer term MAs are all rising and the longer term uptrend is intact.
Last Friday, I suggested that a reversal might be on hand as price action formed a white spinning top, with stalling selling pressure and continuing accumulation.
MFI turned up today and OBV is still rising as price action formed a white hammer. Suggestion is for the price to continue rising with immediate resistance being provided by the 20dMA at $2.32. Breaking this will see the recent high of $2.41 tested as resistance and I have an eventual target of $2.55 which should be the top of a longer basing process. The MACD has a buy signal today.
Buying at the current level has limited downside as it would be almost at the support provided by the 50dMA at $2.29. Vested.
------------------------------------------------ Growth May Slow But "There's No New Recession Anywhere in Sight"
Posted Mar 26, 2010 01:51pm EDT by Peter Gorenstein
My sentiments are similar for 2010. This guy makes sense.
And, as for a double-dip recession, Achuthan says it isn't in the cards. "There's no new recession anywhere in sight. In 2010, the business cycle remains your friend," he says with confidence.
---------------------------------------------------
IMF foresees rapid US growth
AFP - Tuesday, March 30
WARSAW (AFP) - – The US economy looks set to return to relatively rapid growth soon, International Monetary Fund chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn said here on Monday. "The US economy, whilst it has been hard hit by the crisis, may recover rather rapidly," Strauss-Kahn said in a speech at the Warsaw School of Economics, during a visit to Poland.
"It's a flexible economy," noted Frenchman Strauss-Kahn, who is managing director of the Washington-based global lender.
"We'll see how rapid the recovery in the US economy can be. But I'm rather confident that the US economy will grow rather rapidly again quite soon," he added.
In January, the IMF raised its forecast for US growth this year to 2.7 percent from output in 2009, from its earlier 1.5-percent forecast. Strauss-Kahn did not say whether the IMF was set to revise its forecast upwards again.
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