CapitaMalls Asia: Dicey.

For three consecutive sessions, the downtrend resistance line has been tested and broken. Today, it seems that price has closed above this line at $2.11 while being supported by the 20dMA. The bugbear is, of course, the negative divergence between the rising price and the falling volume. If volume does not expand meaningfully as price increases, any further upside might be capped by the declining 50dMA.

Where the momentum oscillators are concerned, the MFI has been forming higher highs and higher lows, suggesting rising buying momentum. The MACD is rising and has stayed above the signal line which is promising although it is still in negative territory. The OBV is not as encouraging and is flattish.  All these technicals combined with the price action forming higher lows and lower highs which create a symmetrical triangle suggest caution to be exercised when going long here.

Any continuing move upwards would be met with resistance in a band from the 50dMA at $2.17 to $2.19.  Without a meaningful expansion in volume, it is unlikely that this resistance band would be overcome. Further downside should find initial support at $2.03, provided by the uptrend support.  Until the symmetrical triangle resolves itself to have price go either up or down, the situation remains dicey.

FSL Trust: Time to buy?

FSL Trust has moved above its most recent downtrend resistance on 27 May and has established an uptrend support since it bottomed at 42.5c on 21 May with a white spinning top.  That white spinning top has delivered as a reversal signal, it would seem.

The MACD has crossed above the the signal line in negative territory.  MFI has formed a higher high after being resisted at 50%.  OBV has stopped declining.  All the technicals suggest that downward pressure has eased and that its price might now be basing.

Should we buy some now? As a hedge, maybe. We have to bear in mind that price has been rising recently on very low volume.  If price starts declining again soon, we would have a lower high formed and we want to see that 42.5c is not tested again (in which case, it would form a higher low) or, if it is tested, it should hold up (in which case, it might form a double bottom).  If 42.5c breaks as support, a new lower low would be formed, which is bearish.  Then, the MACD's bullish crossover in negative territory would have just been signalling a rebound and not a more bullish reversal.

So, I might hedge with a smallish long position but I would only buy more if I see clearer signs that price has bottomed and that it is recovering.

Related posts:
FSL Trust: A sinking ship?
FSL Trust: That sinking feeling.

LMIR: Up against a wall?

LMIR staged an up day as well but on rather lacklustre volume. Price hit a high of 47c before retreating to close at 46c. 47c is a many times tested support and could be a strong resistance now.  For those who wish to, it is a good price to reduce exposure at. Price could touch a high of 47.5c for this REIT tomorrow and the downtrend would still be intact.

However, the momentum oscillators are encouraging with MFI forming a higher high and the OBV continuing to rise. The MACD looks like it would do a bullish crossover with the signal line in negative territory.  Let's see what tomorrow brings.

My strategy in a downtrend: Sell into strength as price rebounds to test resistance. Buy more when price shows signs of bottoming or when the trend shows signs of reversing. Bearing this in mind, I would queue to sell some at 47.5c, the trendline resistance, tomorrow

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: A strong up day.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT staged an impressive up day on high volume today.  It has been a long time since this REIT has had a white candle day on such high volume. Immediate resistance provided by a confluence of MAs was taken out at 21.5c as it closed unequivocably at 22c.  There were quite a few big trades today:

9.07 AM at 21c, 1,086 lots bought up.
9.28 AM at 21.5c, 1,185 lots bought up.
11.59 AM at 22c, 1,821 lots bought up.

It is my guess that this REIT has attracted the attention of more funds and big time investors. Something might just be brewing. The OBV is rising strongly, a sign of heavy accumulation.  The MFI is rising towards 50%, a sign of positive buying momentum.  The MACD has turned up sharply towards the signal line, ready for a bullish crossover in negative territory. Unless the MACD crosses upwards back into positive territory, what we have today could just be a rebound although the very high volume is encouraging.

A further upmove in price should test 23c, a many times tested resistance level, once more. Is this REIT going to move up out of its trading range finally?  Only time will tell. 

My strategy in a rangebound situation: Sell into strength at resistance and accumulate on weakness at support.  I sold the units I collected at 20.5c last week at 21.5c resistance for a quick gain today.  I am queueing to sell more at 23c, the top of the trading range, tomorrow. 23c is a long term resistance and would be harder to overcome. If I do manage to sell more at 23c tomorrow, I would be left with 75% of my original position which I would leave to enjoy any breakout if it should take place. Always hedge.