AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Weakness.

I have been waiting to buy back some units in AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT. Price formed a gravestone doji at 21.5c today. The MACD is declining towards zero.  The OBV is also declining, suggesting some distribution is ongoing.  The MFI is still rising suggesting positive buying momentum but matching that against price action, we see that the price has not been rising as enthusiastically.  A rising MFI with price unchanged is not positive and suggests weakness.

I might get my wish to accumulate again at the support of the trading range.

SPH: A floor or a base?

Remembering the recent lesson learnt from FSL Trust, I should not anticipate but wait for clearer signs of basing or a reversal before adding to my long positions.  It would seem that SPH is basing with $3.68 as a many times tested support.  However, we cannot be sure until price stays above the 20dMA and confirms the MA as support.  This is a stringent requirement.  $3.68 might just be a floor.

That the MACD has made a bullish crossover with the signal line is not persuasive as it is still in negative territory which means what we see might just be a rebound before price continues to move lower.  As MFI moves up, the share price has stayed more or less stagnant, testing the support at $3.68.  This is not a good sign.  I see immediate resistance at $3.80 in case of a continuing move in price upwards while immediate support remains at $3.68.

Healthway Medical: More upside?

Healthway Medical overcame resistance at 17.5c today to close at 18.5c but not before touching a high of 19c.  Volume expanded significantly today. 19.5c could be tested next as the bearish divergence between price and volume was corrected three sessions ago.  MACD is rising in positive territory.  MFI and OBV are rising in tandem with the rise in price. 

Although I believe that Healthway Medical's fundamentals do not command the high share price we are seeing now, the market does not care about fundamentals.  Price is about market sentiments.

Related post:
Healthway Medical: A weak first quarter.
Healthway Medical: An updated valuation.

FSL Trust: A new low.

On 7 Jun 10, I mentioned that FSL Trust "closing at 45c is below the trendline support in the short term. Could we be seeing the start of a bottoming process with 42.5c as the base and 46c as the neckline? Could we be seeing the start of a trading range with support at 42.5c and resistance at 46c? Although the MACD is above the signal line, it remains in negative territory. The MFI has peeked above 50% and the OBV is flattish. Selling pressure has abated. That much is obvious."

Then, news that Verona I, seized in Japan by Singapore-based Daxin Petroleum for not paying for bunker supplied by Daxin had muted response from market participants. Today, news that the other vessel, Nika I, also returned by Groda Shipping is arrested in Qingdao, China, by Daxin over the same reason sent FSL Trust's unit price plunging.

Fundamentally, I priced in a worst case scenario of a loss of 15% income as well as a 33% reduction in dpu from 1.5 USc per quarter to 1.0 USc per quarter.  Technically, it looked as if FSL Trust was bottoming and I bought some units as a hedge.  My recent purchases here demonstrate the danger of anticipation using TA rather than wait for firmer signs of bottoming or a trend reversal.

Now, the question is what would I do from here? Buy more? No, technicals are very bearish. Could it go lower? It might.  Sell and cut losses? No, not now when its price is forming a new low.

FSL Trust's unit price hit a historic low of 32c in March 2009 and at today's low of 39c, the price is only 7c away from testing that low. It seems to me that a test of 32c as support would be overly pessimistic and if it should come to that, I would probably buy in again.

FSL Trust down 6.8%; another vessel seized
Wednesday, 09 June 2010

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Related post:
FSL Trust: Time to buy?