British Petroleum: Time to buy?

Someone asked me if it is time to buy shares of British Petroleum (BP) since it has declined so much and looks cheap.  I said honestly that I don't know as I only buy Singapore stocks.  I saw this on TechTicker and would like to share with anyone who is thinking of buying BP shares:

"There's still a ton of risk," says Chris Edmonds, managing principal with FIG Partners' Energy Research & Capital Group. Edmonds believes it's very possible BP can survive the economic damage caused by the oil leak, but can the company survive the political fallout?

Charts in brief: 23 Jun 10.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: It is hugging the support at 21.5c. MFI continues to descend and has gone below 50%.  I said earlier that if the price stays at or above 21.5c while MFI descends, it is good news for the bulls. This analysis is still valid.  The Bollinger bands look like they are in the early stages of tightening.  A narrowing of the bands signify reduced volatility before a possible sharp movement either way.  With the increased accumulation activity as suggested by the rising OBV, it is likely that this eventual movement is going to be up.

CapitaMalls Asia: I would be very cautious and not go long here. If we look at the daily chart, the price action has closed above the 100dMA. Even though it has done so on lower volume, bulls may cheer. However, if we look at the 100dEMA instead which gives greater weightage to recent price activity, we see a different picture and realise that resistance really has not been taken out yet and that is at $2.22.

Golden Agriculture: MFI seems to be in the early stages of forming lower highs and lower lows. Positive buying momentum is failing. The declining 50dMA is providing resistance at 54.5c now which is where the price closed today. Immediate support at 53.5c but a stronger support is at 51.5c where the 20dMA has just made a golden cross with the 200dMA.

Healthway Medical: Price has very clearly detached from the upper Bollinger band. Forming another doji at this stage suggests that it is most likely that a reversal is on the cards.  MFI is falling from overbought territory and the MACD is turning down towards the signal line. All signs of technical weakness. Initial support is at 18.5c, a resistance level which failed to be taken out earlier this year in March.

Problems in over-leveraged developed economies will eventually reach Asia, including Singapore, either via reduced Asian exports or shock to global financial system, says CIMB, according to Dow Jones....Against this backdrop, house advocates overweight strategy on defensive plays like REITs, as well as proxies to Asia consumption theme, such as Genting Singapore (G13.SG), Raffles Medical Group (R01.SG).

Go for defensive, consumption stocks in Singapore, says CIMB
Wednesday, 23 June 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

CDL Hospitality Trust (CDREIT SP), the hotel operator partly-owned by City Developments (CIT SP), tumbled 6.4% to $1.77, its biggest decline since March 30. The company said it raised net proceeds of $196.4 million, selling shares at $1.71 each, the lower-end of the price range for the share placement.

STI little changed at 2,871.05 at the closing
Wednesday, 23 June 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Related post:
Charts in brief: 22 Jun 10.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: REIW 2010.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT made a presentation yesterday at the Real Estate Investment World 2010 at the Raffles City Convention Centre. Presenting itself to potential investors at the Convention was a very good idea.  Present at the Convention were pension funds and asset managers. I won't be surprised if they are looking to invest in high yielding S-REITs too. Link to the Convention's homepage here.

These were a few points made by the REIT's managers which I like very much:

1.  Asset recycling and asset management programmes:

– Divestments: (i) Japan property; and (ii) one or more of the smaller Singapore properties.
– Redeploy the net divestment proceeds into (i) debt repayment and / or (ii) acquisitions.
– Focus on positive leasing outcomes and enhance selected assets in the portfolio.

2.  Refinancing of the existing S$175 million debt facility with improved financing terms.


3.  Broaden and diversify the Trust’s funding sources.

4.  Target investment grade credit rating of Baa3 or above (current rating of Ba2) by maintaining strict financial discipline and investment grade metrics.

Why do I like these points in particular? These actions, if carried out singly or in sum, could strengthen the REIT's balance sheet, improve EPS, improve DPU, increase the REIT's resilience in the face of future economic slowdowns and attract institutional investors although these benefits might not all happen at the same time.

Based on the fundamentals, accumulating at 21.5c per unit for a 10% annualised yield is rather sound.  Based on near term technicals, 21.5c is resistance turned support.  However, the longer term technicals suggest that the REIT is still in a trading range between 20c to 23c. With momentum still somewhat lacklustre, its price is unlikely to make any big moves in the near term.

To view the complete presentation slides for Real Estate Investment World Asia 2010 Conference, click here.

Related post:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Big boys.

Charts in brief: 22 Jun 10.

NOL: Sell signal seen on the MACD histogram. So, will the price fall for sure? I cannot say but the negative divergence between price and volume has to be resolved.  There should be a pretty strong support at $1.95, a many times tested resistance of a mini ascending triangle pattern. $1.95 is also where we find the rising 100dMA at the moment.

NOL off lows; Low-risk container shipping play, says UOB
Tuesday, 22 June 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: OBV shows steady accumulation. MFI has formed a lower high in the very short term. MACD has crossed into positive territory. If the MFI could gradually fall while the price remains at or above the 21.5c support, it would be good news for bulls.

CapitaMalls Asia: A black spinning top and a bearish harami to boot. A possible pullback to $2.13 where we find the trendline support and the 50dMA is not hard to imagine. Rising positive buying momentum as suggested by a rising MFI should limit any selling pressure.

Courage Marine:  MFI and OBV continue to rise sharply as volume almost tripled on a day that saw price hit a high of 21c.  21c was identified earlier as a strong resistance and it could not be taken out today.