China Hongxing: Going higher?

China Hongxing breached 16c resistance and touched 16.5c briefly.  Closing at 16c, it is still resisted by the declining 200dMA.  This is a long term MA and unless volume expands significantly with any upmove, a breakout from the 200dMA is unlikely to be successful.

If we look at the volume, it has been declining as price tried to move higher in the last few sessions. Although not significantly so, it is nonetheless a negative divergence and calls for caution.

OBV is still rising strongly which means accumulation is still ongoing.  MFI and RSI have both risen high into overbought territories. Momentum is still positive but the risk of a pull back is definitely higher now.

Taking some profits off the table would seem like a prudent thing to do and if price goes parabolic in the next session, I would divest more as parabolas are usually unsustainable.

Related post:
China Hongxing: Target hit.

LMIR: DPU reduced 20%.

LMIR announced a DPU of 1.04c payable on 27 August 2010.  This is lower than the 1.2c paid in the last quarter. This is due to a higher realised loss on the foreign exchange forward contract. This reduced the funds available for distribution from S$13.9m in 2Q2009 to S$11.2m in 2Q2010.  So, although the net property income increased 17.1% year on year, DPU has reduced 20% year on year from 1.3c to 1.04c! 

I was under the impression that a foreign exchange forward contract is a hedge which would smooth out any currency fluctuations to help deliver a steady level of funds available for distribution, everything else remaining constant.  It seems that I was mistaken.

The issue that bothers me now is that the management has no intention of reviewing its practice, it seems: "Despite the realised loss in the current quarter, the Trust has entered into the foreign exchange forward contracts as a prudent measure to mitigate its exposure to fluctuations of income denominated in the IDR". See press release here.

Therefore, I would hold off plans to increase exposure to LMIR on possible future price weakness.

Technically, LMIR has been on a uptrend since hitting a low of 42c on 25 May. A combination of its uptrend support and the candlestick supports shows immediate support to be at 48.5c in the next session.

Lippo-Mapletree Indonesia Retail Trust achieves distributable income of $11.2m for 2Q
Thursday, 29 July 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Steady performance.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT has announced a DPU of 0.5376c payable on 16 Sep 2010. This is the same amount paid out in the last quarter and within my expectations since there has not been any significant material changes which would impact earnings. This represents an annual DPU of 2.1504c and an annualised yield of 9.35% based on the last traded price of 23c.

Technically, price is still range bound and capped by the long term resistance of 23c. MFI has turned down and it remains to be seen if it could bounce off its support. 22.5c is now the immediate support.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT delivers 26.1% rise in net property income in 1Q to $7.9m. The trust has five multi-tenanted properties in its portfolio which has an occupancy of 97.2% and a weighted average lease expiry of 4.2 years.

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Thursday, 29 July 2010

What could go wrong?

“The market is overbought and there is a renewed sense of complacency in the marketplace that I think could get shattered pretty quickly,” says the chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff in Toronto.

Posted Jul 28, 2010 11:18am EDT by Peter Gorenstein,Tech Ticker.

"In a country like North Korea, with conventional artillery lined up to literally obliterate Seoul within hours and with direct nuclear capacity and ballistic missile capacity, this is an unprecedented threat from a rogue state," Bremmer says. "Clearly there is a drumbeat in North Korea that they are trying to use to build patriotism and support for their own regime. The question is: how far do they have to go?"

Bremmer goes on to say that the markets have largely ignored South Korea's precarious situation. They should pay attention because Kim Jong-il wields enormous power and no one knows what he is capable of, including his presumed benefactors in China.

"So if this continues to escalate, and so far all indications are that it will, it is going to start creating an awful lot of concern on the ground with some economies that really matter to the world," he says.

Posted Jul 28, 2010 08:00am EDT by Keegan Bales, Tech Ticker.