Tea with AK71: ASSI is on Twitter!

Some time back, a reader, Chu Yeow, asked if I was considering getting a Twitter account.  Being an IT dinosaur, I was already caught up with blogging and I was not sure what Twitter did and I didn't see the need for it. What I do know is that it has a little bird logo.

Anyway, today, I decided to just register for a Twitter account and see how it goes (although I still do not know if it would be something useful or not).  After all, I see many blogs with "Follow me on Twitter" buttons too.  OK, ok, I know. I should not just do something because other people are doing it.

My Twitter ID is "AK71SG".  It is a shame that the ID "AK71" was already taken.  So, "AK71SG" is the next best thing since I am AK71 and I am in Singapore. Very clever, don't you think? ;-p

If anyone has any idea as to how I could derive benefits from having a Twitter account, please share with me by leaving me a comment.  I would be most grateful as, obviously, I am not the most IT savvy person around. :-)

Control of non-renewable resources!

I was first introduced to the concept of non-renewable resources probably during my days as an "A" level student.  It was believed that crude oil would be depleted in 30 years back then.  Well, 20 years have gone by but it seems that we have more proven reserves of crude oil than ever before but it does not change the fact that it is still a non-renewable resource.

OPEC has 12 members and between them, they control 60% of the world's proven crude oil reserves and produce 40% of the world's oil currently. OPEC's importance cannot be underestimated although there are more non-OPEC oil producers since the 1980s.  This is because oil output by non-OPEC oil producers is likely to fall over the next decade.

Although the world is still very much dependent on oil for its energy needs, there are many alternatives to oil.  The increasing awareness of global warming and climate change issues has encouraged efforts to produce energy cleanly and sustainably.  These efforts would only intensify over time.  So, crude oil might be non-renewable but it is replaceable.

Today, in the papers, I learned that there are some other non-renewable resources which are controlled to a large extent by a single Asian country. I first learned of this only a few weeks ago. Some of you might already know what I am talking about: rare earth minerals.  A quick check on Wikipedia reveals that "the majority of rare earth minerals are mined in Asia, with China producing 93 percent of the world's supply, and more than 99 percent of the most valuable supply!"

In the recent case of Japanese authorities arresting a Chinese fisherman in disputed waters, the Chinese stopped the export of such rare earth minerals to Japan. Apparently, these rare earth minerals are so important in the production of many advanced products that the Japanese authorities bowed to pressure and released the fisherman.

The papers today reported that the Chinese seem to have halted the shipments of these rare earth minerals to the United States and Europe as well.  This is in response to the rising trade and currency tensions China has with the West.  How long would this embargo last?

It is also reported that the Chinese plan to further reduce their annual export quota for rare earth minerals from next year.  Mining almost all of the world's rare earth minerals, non-renewable resources which seem to have no viable alternatives at the current point in time, makes the Chinese a force as formidable as OPEC and possibly more.

Cambridge Industrial Trust: Equity fund raising again.

Very quickly on the heels of its dismal third quarter results, Chris Calvert, the CEO of CIT, has given me more writing material.  This time, it is an equity fund raising which includes private placement (Oh, why am I not surprised?) of 56,498,000 new units at 53.1c per unit and a 1 for 25 "preferential offering" for a total of 38,483,354 new units to existing unitholders also at 53.1c.

The whole engineering effort plus the proposed acquisitions would increase the REIT's total assets by 7.5% from $926.2m to $995.9m.  However, the number of units in issue would increase 10.4% from 909,988,000 units to 1,004,969,000 units! This would lead to a further dilution of NAV/unit from 57.6c to 57c!

It is claimed that the distributable income would increase from S$10,813,000 to S$12,126,000 for a 12.14% increase after the acquisitions are completed.  DPU would, however, increase 1.5% from 1.187c per quarter to 1.205c per quarter. Annualised DPU is estimated at 4.82c which means that the yield based on the "preferential" price of 53.1c is 9.08% and, if based on the last closing price of 56.5c, it would be 8.53%.

Gearing is supposed to reduce from 39.2% to 38.6% after the transactions are completed. This is not genius but simple mathematics.  If we increase the size of assets under management by 7.5%, without paying down or taking on more debts, gearing which is a function of debt to asset size would reduce. CIT is, however, taking on more debt to fund the proposed acquisitions and the resulting decrease in gearing level is not significant.

Existing unitholders should feel indignant because:

1. Most of the funds would be raised through private placement.

2. Existing unitholders are only given 1 "preferential unit" for every 25 units they hold.  Why not enlarge this to 3 units for every 25 units they hold and do away with the private placement (point 1 above)? This would be more equitable and would raise more funds.

3. The "preferential units" are different from "rights".  There is no window period for unitholders who might not want to subscribe to these "preferential units" to gain some compensation by selling away their entitlements, which they could do if they were issued rights instead.  Why did CIT not issue rights instead? (As informed by Musicwhiz in the comments section, CIT is issuing rights but they have chosen to call them "preferential units" and the difference is that these rights are non-transferable which means there is no window period to sell them away as nil-paid rights if unitholders choose not to subscribe and pay for them.)

4. The dismal third quarter results announced yesterday would likely have some downward pressure on the REIT's market price anyway and the offer price of 53.1c per "preferential unit" is not very attractive.

Unitholders would end up having their stakes diluted.  There is a promise of a "higher" quarterly DPU but seeing how the management could not deliver on promises made earlier in August as seen in the disappointing third quarter results announced yesterday, one could not be faulted for being unsure this time round.  This leads me to add one more point:

5. The DPU of CIT was 5.36c before all the recent placements and acquisitions were announced (starting in August 2010).  It would become 4.82c after this latest round of equity fund raising and acquisitions. This is more than 10% in reduction. It is immediately apparent that all the recent proposals by CIT's management have been value destructive for shareholders despite any claim to the contrary.

Read announcement here.

Cambridge Industrial Trust to launch an equity fund raising comprising of the private placement of 56.5 million new units to raise gross proceeds of $30 million; and a preferential offering of up to 38.5 million new units to raise gross proceeds of up to $20.4 million.
Thursday, 21 October 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Related posts:
Cambridge Industrial Trust: Fails to deliver.
Cambridge Industrial Trust: Acquisitions and private placement.

Healthway Medical: Business diversification.

I received a circular from Healthway Medical. This is in respect to a proposed business diversification.  Diversification? Aren't they having enough trouble trying to keep their numbers from worsening? Well, maybe, I should not jump to conclusions. Let us take a look at what is happening.

A new company, Healthway Medical Development (Pte) Limited was set up on 22 Sep 2010 as an investment holding company. This joint venture company in which Healthway Medical holds a 25% interest, hopes to "capitalise on the numerous real estate opportunities in the region, in particular the PRC, by tapping on the Medical Development Business to develop real estate projects with medical and healthcare facilities with the aim of accessing new and emerging private healthcare services markets." (on page 9 of circular)

Honestly, this sounds attractive. Any risks? Just as in its proposal to expand its business into the PRC, Healthway Medical listed the risks involved in the proposed business diversification: a total of 12 points (3.4.1 to 3.4.12, pages 13 to 17)! It seems to me that the company is taking on too much risk.

Although it is stated that this proposed business diversification has no significant financial impact on Healthway Medical's NTA per share or EPS for 2010, it was further stated that "should there be any material impact.... for FY2011, the company will make the necessary announcements at the appropriate time."  Has this been deliberately left vague? I do not appreciate this.

I feel that Healthway Medical's management have their hands full. The numbers in the last two quarters have been disappointing, to put it diplomatically. Could this proposed business diversification put further stress on resources which could already be spread thin? If Healthway Medical's share price is anything to go by, its recent weakness hints that I am not the only shareholder who is unimpressed by its performance.

A gravestone doji formed today as price closed at 15.5c.  As the MFI is in very oversold condition, price could experience a brief rebound and it might be a good chance for stale bulls to lighten their long positions, if any. Strong resistance could be expected at 17c.  This is where we find the 200dMA and it is also where the falling 20d and 50d MAs would be approximating soon.

Related post:
Healthway Medical: Second quarter results.
Healthway Medical: Testing 16c support.