Golden Agri, Kencana Agri, Healthway Medical and Genting SP.

On 12 Nov, I mentioned that Golden Agriculture could see its support at 70c tested sooner than later. That support was tested today. Its share price bounced off the support and closed at 72c, ending the session 1c lower.

I still see a negative divergence between price and volume. The MACD has completed a bearish crossover with the signal line but being in positive territory, it suggests that the retreat in price could just be a correction. In such a case, we could see price weakening further to 65c, the next major support, if the support at 70c fails to hold up.

Singapore palm stocks hurt by China price controls. Statement from China’s State Council Wednesday says Beijing will seek to tame rising food, energy prices. “We view the price control guidelines by the Chinese government as short-term negative for CPO prices as they may weaken import demand and prompt traders to liquidate their speculative positions,” says CIMB.     
Thursday, 18 November 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

On 22 Oct, I mentioned that I was wary of Kencana Agriculture because its chart "seems to display classic signs of negative divergence between price and volume, price and MACD, price and MFI as well as price and RSI.  The shorter term 20dMA seems to be flattening."

This picture has hardly changed as its price declined to 42c, the support provided by the 20dMA, on relatively low volume. This was after three attempts to break resistance at 45c without success. I could be wrong but we might be seeing the formation of a rising wedge. If such a pattern is valid, the downside target could be at least 39c, which also seems to be a rather strong support.

On 13 Nov, I mentioned that "With the MACD, MFI and RSI all in their respective downtrends, a retest of the support at 15c is rather likely" for Healthway Medical. The counter ended the session at 15c today. The down channel's support in the next few sessions is probably at 14.5c and we could see this tested if the support at 15c fails. I still feel that 15c is a relatively strong support and if it holds, we could see the formation of a double bottom.

However, with the MACD having completed another bearish crossover with the signal line in negative territory and without any sign of a positive divergence, it could be rather risky to buy in at this stage. The downtrend might have to run its course.

Genting SP's fortunes have taken a turn for the worse. On 12 Nov, I mentioned that "If the price starts at $2.18 or higher in the next session and manages to break resistance at $2.21 which is the 50% Fibo line as well as the 20dMA, we could have a recovery. Having said this, the MACD has been moving lower as price moved higher, presenting an obvious picture of negative divergence. I would treat any rebound as a chance to reduce exposure."

Well, price started at $2.14 in the next session and closed lower, forming a black candle that almost completely engulfed the white spinning top. Closing at $2.05 today, it has gone below the support provided by the 50dMA. The counter had not traded below the 50dMA in many months.

The negative divergence between price and the MACD is playing out. With the MACD approaching zero, momentum could quickly turn negative as the lower highs on the RSI suggest weakening buying momentum. If price does not recapture the 50dMA as support, immediate support is at $2 with the next support after that at $1.85.

Macquarie cuts Genting Singapore to Underperform.  Macquarie downgrades Genting Singapore to Underperform from Neutral; “we believe the current consensus expectations for Genting Singapore are overly aggressive. In our view, they do not capture the risk of competition from Marina Bay Sands, rising political risk and limited impact from junket approvals.”      
Thursday, 18 November 2010

© 2010 - The Edge Singapore

Related posts:
Saizen REIT, First REIT, Golden Agriculture, Genting SP.
Healthway Medical: 3Q 2010 results.

Tea with AK71: Marina Link @ B1.

My second day of vacation and I visited the new Marina Link @ B1. This is a relatively short underground link up between Marina Square and the Esplanade MRT station. I had to go down two very long escalators to get to the shops and on the other end is Esplanade Xchange, another underground mall.

To promote Marina Link @ B1, Marina Square is giving a $5 voucher for every $20 spent in the shops there. Good deal! If we spend another $30 in any shop in Marina Square (for a total of $50), we will get free parking for the first 3 hours (worth $4.40 on a weekday), limited to 100 redemptions a day. Needless to say, I got them all. ;)

See map here.

Here are some photos I took, of course, with my trusty Samsung mobile phone's 5.0 megapixel built in camera.

Escalator number 1.

 Escalator number 2.

 Part of Marina Link @ B1.

 This was where I had lunch.

$10.90 for Pork Cutlet and Ice Lemon Tea. Pork Cutlet was good but the mayo was too heavy. I am not usually crazy about Ice Lemon Tea but it was very good!

 Esplanade Xchange at the other end of Marina Link @ B1.

 Entrance to Marina Link @ B1 from Esplanade Xchange.

Had another one and a half hours to kill after lunch, shopping and all the redemptions. So, I went to Millenia Walk and looked the electronics and had a haircut at QB House for $10 before coming back home. Sunny day makes me drowsy. The stock market seems lethargic today too. Haha. :)

Tea with AK71: A day at MBLM.

What is MBLM? It stands for Marina Bay Link Mall. This is the underground mall at MBFC, the development which K-REIT and Suntec REIT would co-own with each having a 33% stake.

I was wondering where should I spend my vacation which starts today and I decided to stay in Singapore instead of going overseas. I would spend time going places here and help to stimulate the local economy. Singapore's domestic economy has been said to be tiny. So, I am doing my patriotic duty by spending my vacation money here instead of going away to a foreign land. Ahem.

So? I like the mall. Shops on both sides, it has a wide centre aisle with high ceiling. It is defnitely less claustrophobic compared to the Citylink Mall (which I somewhat dislike). In time, with the completion of the Downtown Line for the MRT, I am sure MBLM would be just as busy as Citylink Mall but the generous space allowance should be enough to cope with increased human traffic. MBLM also serves the residents of The Sail and Marina Bay Residences condominiums. In fact, half the shoppers at MBLM I saw today were foreigners, probably expatriates, with kids.

Go visit MBLM before it becomes crowded. Now till end of the year, spend $80 at MBLM and we will get $15 shopping voucher plus 4 hours of parking for free. There is also an instant lucky dip to win iPads and iPhones but that's for weekends only and I was so hoping to win an iPad. :(

So, I got my $15 voucher, free parking, wrapping paper for Christmas and 2 lucky draw chances. Hope that I would win 1st prize which is for $8,000 worth of shopping vouchers! Then, I would go to the Apple retailer in the mall and get my iPad, Macbook Air etc. Wah.... Day dreaming. Nice!

Anyway, with 4 hours of free parking, I had time to burn as MBLM is smallish with a floor plan shaped like the letter "L" and not many shops were ready for business. I walked to Marina Bay Sands (MBS) to explore the shopping mall.  It was my second time at MBS which has a much bigger shopping mall.  This time round, more shops were open and I didn't have to pay an exorbitant $10 per hour for parking my car! That makes me happy.

Apparently, MBS is now giving free parking for the first 3 hours but one would have to spend $200 at the mall to qualify. I won't qualify. Free parking at MBS costs more than MBLM, if you know what I mean. MBS is for the well heeled, obviously. I like MBLM more which might say something about me. ;)

These are some photos I took with my free Samsung mobile phone which comes with a 5.0 megapixel camera built in. Pretty good shots, aren't they? I still remember when digital cameras were 1.3 megapixel in resolution.

After spending almost 4 hours at Marina Bay, fully utilising my free parking privilege, I went back to Tiong Baru and had a bowl of freshly made bean curd (dou hua) for 60c. Where to find? Tiong Baru Market lor.

Now back in my bedroom, with the air-conditioning set at 25 deg celcius and blogging. Time for a nap! I am a happy man. :)

An email from another reader in his early 20s.

This email just came in this morning and is part of a string of email exchanges. It was a happy coincidence seeing how I just put up a blog post earlier regarding another email which I received from a reader in his early 20s too:

Hey AK, anyways i would like to take this opportunity to thank you for ur efforts to keep the blog updated. appreciate the time and i feel your posts are very enriching. Im only 21 this year :) been speculating in shares with my sibling's account.

Most of my friends are spending alot, sometimes i dont feel that im in the same league as them, im thinking stocks, investments, property and most of them are clubbing.. haha..

By the way, what do you do for a living?

Do you think 2011 will have as many investment opportunities than 2010?

My reply to the last question which I would like to share with all my readers was:

There will always be investment opportunities. Will there be more or less? I don't know but I think that is not important. Why? If there are more, could we take advantage of all of them? If I could identify a couple of opportunities and make money of those, it should be enough for me.