Tea with AK71: Lucky 4D from ASSI.

In a blog post many moons ago, I asked if gambling was a bad thing. In that post, I said "From a money management standpoint once more, if we budget a small sum of money for entertainment and classify gambling as one form of entertainment, as long as we stay within what is budgeted, gambling would not become financially crippling and it might even be rewarding.  The Chinese people have a saying, "mai ge xi wang", or "buying a hope".  This, I feel, is not a bad thing." Read blog post here.

I have a habit of buying a few BIG SWEEP tickets every month. I would also try my luck at TOTO if the prize money is big enough such as the recent $5m TOTO.

Now, with the Chinese New Year coming up, perhaps I should try my luck once more! If we look at our telephones, we would realise that we could dial ASSI and the numbers are 2774. Could these be the lucky numbers for betting at 4D in the first week of the Chinese New Year?

Wishing all Chinese readers a Happy and Prosperous Chinese New Year! GONG XI FA CAI!

Just found this on YouTube. Not one of the traditional Chinese New Year songs. A mixture of new, old and funky! I like:

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Buy at 21c.

I am still in the queue to buy more of this REIT at 21c. With an annualised DPU of 2.04c, buying at 21c would give an attractive yield of 9.71%. Technically, 21c seems like a strong support as well, underpinned by the 200dMA.

I like to use the MFI as a measurement of demand and it is heartening to see that the uptrend is intact although attempts by the index to rise have been resisted several times at 50% since 21 Jan. An expansion in volume as price pushes higher would see the index move higher as well. When would this happen? Your guess is as good as mine. Bear in mind that the index could weaken to retest its trendline support as well and this could happen if volume or price weakens, or both.

Informed by FA, I would simply accumulate on weakness. This was something written by OCBC Research a couple of months ago:

The industrial sector typically lags the office sector by a few quarters. With the upbeat momentum in the office space, Industrial REITs stand to capitalise on the spillovers to business parks, high-tech and light industrial buildings. In terms of forward yields, Industrial REITs also trade at a premium of 70 basis points to the broader sector. We are bullish on the industrial sector recovery and now have an OVERWEIGHT rating for the Industrial REITs subsector. 

Related post:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 21c at XD.

CapitaMalls Asia: Testing resistance.

Although volume was lower than the previous session, price managed to overcome both resistance levels at $1.88 and $1.90. We could see the resistance provided by the descending 50dMA at $1.93 challenged next. Indeed, it could be argued at price is now at resistance provided by a trendline resistance at $1.92. Overcoming this resistance could see a retest of $1.97, the high of 17 Jan.

The RSI has broken out of 50% and is rising higher while the MFI is now testing 50% as resistance. So, initial observation suggests that although buying momentum is recovering, demand is not very strong. This is a fragile condition which could see things go either way. However, drawing a trendline support yields a very interesting picture. The MFI's uptrend is actually intact!

That $1.83 is now a support of some strength is indisputable. Market participants would remember it as the support which did not break. If this were to be tested once more, I am willing to bet that more buyers would emerge. So, although the longer term MAs are still in decline, the gently rising 20dMA tells a story of possible reversal. Although I am not adding to my long position, I am not a seller either.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Support at $1.83.

CapitaMalls Asia: Support at $1.83.

CapitaMalls Asia gapped down, tested $1.83 support today and bounced off to close unchanged at $1.87. Although volume is pretty decent, it is lower than the previous session which was a black candle day.  The intra-day high of $1.88 was a many times tested support earlier this month and even if it should be taken out, the next resistance at $1.90 was also a many times tested support. This counter will have to climb a wall of worries, indeed, as supports are now resistance.

Although fundamentally strong, this counter remains technically weak as the MACD has just completed a bearish crossover with the signal line in negative territory. The MFI has also broken the 50% support to trend lower while the RSI is now resisted by the 50% line. Breaking resistance at $1.88 and $1.90 on high volume would give the counter a chance to retest resistance provided by the descending 50dMA.

Since breaking its nascent uptrend after breaking out of its multi-month downtrend, things are looking iffy. I am not adding to my long position until the technicals show that the uptrend is recaptured or a new one is formed.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Black hammer day.