CapitaMalls Asia: Reloaded at $1.92.

I increased my exposure to CapitaMalls Asia today, buying in at $1.92 which is the support I identified before. This is where the 20dMA formed a golden cross with the 50dMA. Price went on to close at $1.91 which is where we find the trendline support.

That volume expanded relative to the session before on a black candle day is somewhat bearish. A black candle without any lower shadow is also quite bearish and we could see the price going lower. The MACD also looks like it is poised for a bearish crossover with the signal line.

However, as the uptrend is still intact, there is no need to get hysterical. If price were to go lower, what would I do? Get hysterical? Perhaps not but I would be cautious and not load up further unless there are clearer signs that supports would hold up.

Next support? $1.88. This is quite obvious from the candlesticks and also a gentler trendline support using the lows of 20 Dec 2010 and 1 Feb 2011. After that, it is $1.85, followed by $1.83.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Low volume pull back.

Saizen REIT: 2Q FY2011 results.

A friend sent me a SMS this morning and asked why was Saizen REIT's unit price down? Well, Mr. Market is not the easiest entity to understand but Saizen REIT's announcement of a DPU of 0.52c payable on 8 March 2011 could have disappointed.

This is 0.08c lower than my estimate on 11 Nov which was for 0.6c. A lower DPU is not pleasing but it is not catastrophic. Some people recognise this as 1,000 lots each were bought up at 17c/unit in two transactions at 3.29pm and 4.50pm and the counter closed unchanged.

On 11 Nov 10, I said that "Everything else remaining constant, I estimate the distributable income for 2Q FY2011 to be JPY 220,000,000 or 7.4% higher than 1Q FY2011. Total distributable income for 1H FY2011 is, therefore, estimated to be JPY 424,943,000. Number of units in issue now at 1,111,003,000.  DPU estimated at JPY 0.38. Based on the rate of S$1 = JPY63.3, it means a DPU of 0.6c in March 2011."

Of course, everything else did not remain constant and total distributable income for 1H FY2011 is JPY383,858,000 or some 10% lower than my estimate back in November last year. Number of units in issue at 31 Dec 10 was 1,122,925,619 or almost 12,000 lots more, as warrants were exercised. As of 10 Feb 11, there were 1,125,615,406 units in issue. The S$ has also strengthened against the JPY in the last three months. These three factors contributed to a lower than expected DPU.

The lower distributable income is "due mainly to the sale of a total of 12 properties between September 2010 and November 2010. The average occupancy rate was 90.8% in 2Q FY2011, as compared to ... 90.9% in the previous quarter ended 30 September 2010 (“1Q FY2011”). Overall rental reversion of new contracts entered into in 2Q FY2011 was marginally lower by about 3.2% (... 1Q FY2011: lower by about ... 3.2% ...) from previous contracted rates. "

Back in November last year, I said the distributable income "could have been 50% higher if not for the amortising nature of Saizen REIT's loans. JPY113,397,000 was used for loan amortisation." This remains true today. While loan amortisation reduces cash available for distribution, it results in savings on interest expenses going forward. A total of  JPY215,108,000 was used for loan amortisation in 1H FY2011. Solely for illustration purposes, had the aforesaid amount been distributable, it would have amounted to an additional distribution of approximately 0.26 cents per Unit (based on 1,122,925,619 Units in issue as at 31 December 2010).

YK Shintoku’s loan issue continues to be addressed. YK Shintoku divested seven properties in 2Q FY2011, at a weighted average discount of about 4% to valuation. In aggregate, these seven properties contributed a gross revenue of JPY 6.3 million (S$0.1 million1), or 0.6% of the Group’s total revenue, in 2Q FY2011. Loan repayment using sale proceeds from these divestments as well as principal repayments made from YK Shintoku’s operations cash flow in 2Q FY2011 had reduced the loan balance of YK Shintoku to JPY 5.5 billion (S$87.0 million) as at the end of December 2010. Refinancing efforts are on-going.

See announcement here.

Related post:
Saizen REIT: 1Q FY2011 results.

First REIT: Testing immediate support.

On 4 February, I suggested that "Caution is advised. There could possibly be a better time to buy more."

I also said that "On the daily chart, right away, we see that the Bollinger Bands are squeezing. An imminent change in direction after a period of low volatility? Which way would it go? The MACD has been falling as a bearish crossover was completed sessions ago. Momentum is weakening. Immediate support is at 75c."

Today, First REIT's unit price declined to test immediate support at 75c. Volume increased perceptibly as price managed to close unchanged at 75.5c. The technicals are bearish and we see that the MFI's downtrend is very much intact, suggesting a declining momentum in demand.

If the immediate support at 75c should give way, we should see some support at 73c next. This is where the rising 50dMA is approximating now. How likely is it that 73c would be tested? Well, if we believe in symmetry, 77c was the adjusted high and with 75c as the neckline, this would give us 73c as the downside target. Seeing the price hugging the lower Bollinger band now, why would this be unlikely? I crave your indulgence as I enjoy my little games.

Related post:
First REIT: Buying more?

CapitaMalls Asia: Low volume pull back.

Unfortunately, the bulls have turned cautious and the bears bolder. The black candle formed today is long and most ugly. The MACD histogram has turned red which is a sell signal. Time to panic? Well, maybe later but definitely not now.

Notice how much lower the volume is on a day when price declined so much. What does this tell us? There is a lack of buyers. The downward movement in price is due to a lack of buying and not because of massive selling. So? Weak holders are being shaken out. Let's see if the golden cross formed by the 20d and 50dMA would provide a strong support in limiting further downside. This is at $1.92.

Having offloaded most of my long position at $2.00, I might pick up some at supports.

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Pushing it higher.