CapitaMalls Asia: More upside after gap cover?

Some may wonder why CapitaMalls Asia seems to be suffering from malaise even as Capitaland's share price recovered almost 3% today. A quick look at the chart and the answer is obvious. Gap resistance is found at $1.75 and the counter closed the gap today. What now?

The MACD histogram has turned green. With the MACD still in negative territory, a green histogram probably indicates a short term bullish bias. The MFI has dipped into oversold territory while the RSI is upturning in oversold territory. Even if the price does not recover in a hurry, the technicals hint that any downside could be limited for now.

Immediate support has been established at $1.69, the low of 28 Feb while immediate resistance remains at $1.75, beyond which, resistance could be found at $1.83 (a twice tested support turned resistance) and $1.88 (downtrend resistance and declining 20dMA).

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Another failed reversal signal.

Golden Agriculture: A one day gain of 7 to 9.4%.

The STI experienced a nice up day as it closed 1.9% higher at 3,067.60. Golden Agriculture closed higher as well, breaking the immediate resistance of 68.5c, touching a high of 71c before closing at 70.5c.

I have closed my long position bought at 64c yesterday at 68.5c and 70c today, locking in a one day gain of 7% and 9.4% respectively. For those who have yet to close their positions, the next resistance levels are at 72c (100dMA) and 73.5c (50dMA). Having broken out of the downtrend which started on 4 Jan on the back of a high volume white candle day, there is a chance that price could go higher. Then, why did I choose to close my position?

A one day gain of 7% to 9.4%, risk free, is good enough for me. There could be another 2 or 3c gain from here but the risk is definitely higher now. 68.5c is also a natural price level for partial divestment as it approximates the position of the downtrend resistance, on top of being the price where we find the 20dMA.

A look at the weekly chart shows that 72c is likely to be a strong resistance. Notice also how the MFI and RSI are forming lower highs and lower lows. We could be experiencing a very strong rebound and when the energy is spent, price is probably heading lower.

STI increases 1.9% to 3,067.60 at closing. Golden Agri Resources surged 8.5% to 70.5 cents. UOB-Kay Hian Holdings raised its rating to “hold” from “sell,” while HSBC maintained its “overweight” recommendation and cut its share-price forecast to 81 cents from 90 cents.
Tuesday, 01 March 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Related post:

Golden Agriculture: Stellar FY2010 results.

SoundGlobal: Sound the alarm?

On 27 Jan, I blogged about SoundGlobal and how I was, once upon a time, an investor in the company, when it was known as E-pure. I concluded that blog post by saying "I like to use Fibo lines in such an instance to see how low price could go in case support breaks. Support is, of course, at 70c. Looking at the chart, the three golden ratios are at 62c, 59.5c and 57c. Buy some at those levels? I might if the other signs are encouraging."

The counter closed at 61c today as price hugged the lower Bollinger. ADX has been rising sharply as the negative DI continues higher. More weakness is probable.

However, in case of a rebound, expect gap resistance at 67.5c and support turned resistance at 71c.

Fundamentally, the company's full year results announced today might have disappointed although a 1c dividend was declared.

Year on year, profit increased a mere 2.3% although revenue increased 36.5% and gross profit increased 42.8%. Expenses and income tax shot through the roof.

EPS: RMB 8.4c (Errata: RMB 22.4c)
NAV/share: RMB 149.5c

See announcement here.

So, will I buy at 61c? I think it is still pretty pricey with a PE of about 36x (Errata: 14.5x). I might still be suffering from the memory effect and 61c is just not an attractive price for me to go long on this counter again.

Errata: Made a mistake as I took in only Q4's EPS. At 14.5x, it doesn't look so pricey anymore.

Related post:
SoundGlobal: The former E-pure.

CapitaMalls Asia: Another failed reversal signal.

The Bullish Harami Cross failed as a reversal signal. Today, price gapped down at $1.73 and went on to touch an intra-day low of $1.69 before closing at $1.72. Very high volume accompanied this black candle day.

On the face of it, the entire picture looks very bearish but the formation of a black hammer suggests that the bulls are fighting back. In fact, the trade summary shows that sell downs and buy ups are almost evenly matched.

In an earlier blog post, I suggested that $1.70 is a strong support and that I would wait to see if this support level holds up before deciding whether to add to my long position. I have added to my long position at $1.71 today as the $1.70 level was tested and held up.

CapitaMall Trust flat; Iluma buy a long term story - UOB KayHian. At an NPI yield of 3.8%, does not look yield accretive to the portfolio NPI yield of 5.6% or the trading yield of 5.3%.
Monday, 28 February 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

Related post:
CapitaMalls Asia: Another reversal signal.