Golden Agriculture: Watch the 100dMA.

Golden Agriculture had another high volume white candle day but price could not close above the declining 100dMA and a long upper wick was formed in the process. This is the second time in the last few sessions which saw the 100dMA broken but, ultimately, remains the resistance to watch.

Could we see price moving higher in the next session, overcoming resistance provided by the declining 100dMA? We could. Could we see price being pushed lower in the next session and perhaps retest supports? We could.

Huh? What am I saying? The usual and that is TA is about probabilities and not certainties. At this moment, the odds are 50-50 that it could go either way.

What have I done? Seeing strong resistance at 71c, the last high, I did a partial divestment today at 70.5c. If price were to weaken from here to retest supports, I would buy more. If price were to move higher, I have more to sell.

If price were to move higher, we could see 72c and 73.5c tested as resistance. Ultimately, we could see gap cover at 76c. Sounds good? However, if price were to move lower, expect immediate support to be at 69c, followed by 67.5c.

No matter how bullish analysts are, I would be cautious here as a possible head and shoulders formation is obvious in the chart. Therefore, without a higher high (i.e. higher than 73.5c), we are still on thin ice.

Related posts:
NOL and Golden Agriculture.
Golden Agriculture: Divestment at 70.5c.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REITs: Buy ups!

It is widely acknowledged even amongst private investors that Singapore's industrial real estate provides probably the highest yields compared to all other classes of real estate. Personally, I know of some really rich people who own one or a few industrial properties in Singapore. As I am not in the same league, I seek exposure through investments in industrial properties S-REITs.

I would draw your attention to a couple of past blog posts and if you have missed reading these, you might want to check them out:
1. Higher rents to benefit industrial properties S-REITs
(7 April 2011).
2. Industrial rent forecasts strongest for Singapore.
(17 April 2011).

Buying units of REITs which are trading below NAV is still something I do with the exception of Cache Logistics Trust which I bought at a smallish premium to NAV. I usually go for industrial properties S-REITs offering higher distribution yields, preferably closer to 10% per annum (adding to my investment in AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT when its price hit 19.5c and 20c in recent past and buying heavily into Sabana REIT in the last two weeks as its price hit a low of 90c).

Currently, I have investments in the following industrial properties S-REITs:

1. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT
2. Sabana REIT
3. Cache Logistics Trust
4. Cambridge Industrial Trust

Of the four, I am only interested in adding to Sabana REIT for reasons I discussed in an earlier blog post. Please read it here. I also said that I am waiting for an opportunity to partially divest my stake in AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT and to move the funds into Sabana REIT. The opportunity should take the form of a rebound and when resistance is tested.

Remember I blogged about my disappointment in Cambridge Industrial Trust in an earlier blog post? It did not mean that I would dump my units at whatever price available at that point in time. I meant that I would divest at a price which is to my advantage. There is a time to buy and a time to sell. We can only hope that we get them right.

I was somewhat saddened when some readers told me that they sold away their units in the Trust after reading my blog post and the counter was still trading CD at the time. Read blog post here.

Now, with AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, we are seeing consistent buying ups for two sessions now. Today, a dragonfly doji was formed with 4,851 lots bought up at 21.5c and only 43 lots sold down at 21c.

Could the reverse head and shoulders I blogged about on 18 May be valid? Read blog post here. If valid, it would provide a chance for me to partially divest my stake in the REIT.

NOL and Golden Agriculture.

Today, my buy order for NOL at $1.80 was filled. NOL is in a persistent downtrend. Why am I buying more shares at $1.80 a piece? Well, it seems to me that a positive divergence is forming. As price broke the previous low formed on 5 May 2011, volume reduced comparatively. Sellers are less enthusiastic this time round.

The MACD histograms seem to be forming a higher low while the MACD has not turned up yet but could form a higher low too. A rebound could see a test of $1.88 as resistance in the near term. If it should happen, I would reduce my long position in the stock.

Today, my buy order for Golden Agriculture at 67c was also filled. This is at 1 bid higher than the support at 66.5c I identified in an earlier blog post. A hedge, nothing more. Why? Remember that I said we could be seeing the early stages of a head and shoulders formation when the price failed to form a higher high (that is higher than 73.5c)? I said that the neckline of that potential formation is at 65c. This case is still a possibility.

Of course, TA is about probability, not certainty, and we should make our moves accordingly. Today's white hammer formation is promising with price closing at 68.5c on relatively high volume. If price were to continue moving higher, immediate resistance is found at 70c. Closing above 70c could see 72c tested next.

Indofood Agri: A crash by any other word.

Indofood Agri's decision to list PT SIMP, its subsidiary, could lead to earnings dilution and we could see EPS reducing by as much as 12%. This is according to Goldman Sachs. Indofood Agri's share price, however, declined some 15.7% today, closing at $1.72 after touching a low of $1.69. Could there be an opportunity to buy some shares on the cheap?

I do not understand what is going on sufficiently and how the valuation is being carried out. Therefore, I will avoid. Good luck to anyone vested.

Indofood Agri falls on unit’s IPO pricing. “The IPO could pose downside risks to our IFAR earnings estimates through potential EPS dilution, as well as possible holding company discount once its main operating asset is listed separately,” said Goldman Sachs in a report.
Monday, 23 May 2011

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