Sabana REIT: Target BUY prices.

A reader mentioned that Sabana REIT's unit price has weakened to 88c after going XD. A further weakening in price could be an opportunity to accumulate. I have the same thought. After all, I divested a small portion of my investment in the REIT at 90c and 91c as its unit price rose in the last couple of weeks.

Question: What would be my target buy prices? Prices? Yes, I see stronger supports at 87c, 86c, 85c and 84.5c. So, I could possibly accumulate at these prices if they should be tested for support.

In a recent blog post, I said that Sabana REIT could possibly see a higher DPU in the next quarter. So, accumulating on weakness could be a very rewarding exercise. See blog post: here.

I would also pay attention to the momentum oscillators to see if the REIT is oversold at any point in time. Good luck to all of us.

Related post:
Sabana REIT: Partial divestment at 91c.

Capitaland: Pushing higher on lower volume.

Capitaland's share price touched a high of $2.66 and closed at $2.65. Remember that I mentioned that in very bullish circumstances we could see $2.65 or even $2.75 tested? This is still valid.

I did a partial divestment at $2.65 today. If the following week should see price pushing higher, I would be happy to divest once more. $2.75? It could happen although I see the declining 200dMA now at $2.73. This could limit further appreciation in price. Although bulls could push past this resistance, it would surprise me (pleasantly) if price could close above the 200dMA. Why do I say this?

Look at the trading volume. It has been reducing. Indeed, volume is also lower this week as compared to last week. Volume is the fuel that drives rallies and reducing volume could be an early signal of coming weakness in price. Volume precedes price.

Momentum oscillators also signal that greater caution should be exercised. On the daily charts, the MFI has entered overbought territory while the Stochastics has been overbought for some time. It is riskier to go long at present despite the return of positive momentum as shown by a rising MACD in positive territory.

Long holders could consider selling while anyone thinking of buying could consider waiting for a pull back to supports.

Related post:
Capitaland: Partial divestment at $2.48.

First REIT: FY2011 results.

DPU for 4Q 2011 is 1.93c which is another bumper distribution! The REIT will go XD on 1 February and the income distribution is payable on 29 February.

This includes distribution coming out of a portion of the total gains on divestment of the Adam Road property of about S$8.7 million.

Without such a return of capital, the DPU for 4Q 2011 is 1.61c. Annualised DPU is, therefore, estimated to be 6.44c. To calculate a more realistic distribution yield, we have to use this number. At the unit price of 77c, we get a distribution yield of 8.36%.

NAV/unit: 80.5c
Gearing: 16%
Interest cover ratio: 12.3x

Technically, volume has been rising but price has plateaued at 77c which seems like a difficult resistance to overcome.

How would Mr. Market react to the REIT's results? Could we see price action breaking resistance at 77c and going higher? If resistance should be overcome, there is a chance of a retest of 80c which I see as the upper end of a trading range.

See presentation slides: here.

Related post:
First REIT: Bumper distribution 3Q 2011.

LMIR: Partial divestment at 38c.

Anyone who made use of LMIR's rights issue to accumulate more units would be in the money now.

I see immediate resistance for LMIR's unit price at 38c and put in an overnight sell order for a partial divestment. It was filled today as unit price closed at 38.5c.

Fibo lines seem to suggest that in case of a retracement, we could see strong support at 34.5c. That is quite a bit to fall from here if it should be tested.

The strategy I have for LMIR is the same as the one for Sabana REIT and AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT. Hold a larger portion for regular income while trading a smaller portion for potential capital gains.

The decision to partially divest is fully based on technicals as, fundamentally, I think LMIR is still too cheap to sell.

Related post:
LMIR: Too cheap to sell.