Perennial Real Estate Holdings (PREH): A nibble?

Regular readers would remember how I once bought units in Perennial China Retail Trust (PCRT), how I sold a part of my investment when its unit price moved up and how I sold my entire investment a couple of years later in 2014.

What motivated me to invest in PCRT in 2012 was the much lower unit price it was trading at the time compared to its price at IPO and while it made progress in its business, its income distributions were largely unchanged. However, when it was clear to me that the income distributions were not going to be sustainable, I made my exit.

Of course, we know that PCRT was eventually delisted and its assets are now part of a larger entity, Perennial Real Estate Holdings (PREH). Backing PREH are big names in the corporate world, Mr. Kuok Khoon Hong, Mr. Ron Sim and Mr. Pua Seck Guan. Together, they hold a combined interest of about 70% in PREH. Some of us might have noticed some persistent insider buying in PREH and that was the reason why a friend recently told me that I should go take a look.

Well, I vaguely remember that PREH owns some Singapore assets as well. So, it is a more complicated creature compared to PCRT. It could be a daunting task to analyse and also because so many of its assets in China are still being developed. Anyway, I decided to start by looking at its financial results dated 13 Feb 2015 and see if I could cut short the process by looking at the numbers which could matter more. See financial results: here.

From 28 Oct 2014 to 31 Dec 2014, revenue was reported as $14.966 million. Just to make it easier for me, I will think of this as 2 months' worth of revenue. Assuming nothing changes, revenue would be $89.796 million for the full year. Now, I try to derive the earnings.

Administrative expenses ballooned due to the offer to buy over PCRT. Removing that non-recurring portion, we could see expenses at $40 million for the full year. Finance costs could be about $60 million for the full year.

Associates' contributions (disregarding fair value gains) would amount to about $8 million for the whole year, all else remaining equal. Similarly, I have ignored fair value gains on PREH's fully owned investment properties to the tune of some $46 million.

Now, if we put all these together, we will get:

Revenue $89.796 million
+ Associates' contributions $8 million
- Expenses $100 million
= A small full year loss of about $2 million

Whether PREH is able to become profitable would depend on their ability to increase asking rents for their investment properties in Singapore and China. It would also depend on whether they are able to sell some percentage of their investment properties to realise capital gains which was suggested by Mr. Pua Seck Guan when he was still running PCRT then in order to fund income distributions to unit holders. That would really have been a partial return of capital but it would also have been a useful exercise to see if the valuation of PCRT's assets was actually realistic.

Since the release of its financial results dated 13 Feb 2015, PREH also acquired stakes in House of Tan Yeok Nee and smallish stakes in Chinatown Point and 112 Katong. It also recently announced the purchase of AXA Tower in Singapore. We could see revenue receiving a boost as these are investment properties that would be generating rental revenue.

Of course, we won't be wrong to suspect that there will also be more debt on its balance sheet and that finance expense should increase. How much of an impact would these have? At the moment, I simply don't know.

What is known is that PREH inherited PCRT's Chinese portfolio and the challenges have not changed. There are still many development projects which are yet to be completed and these have to be paid for.

The funds required for the various projects are estimated to be about S$1.5 billion. That is a lot of money. If we look at the liabilities section of the balance sheet, PREH is already heavily geared. Having said this, they are well located projects situated on transportation nodes.

There are many assumptions for PREH to do better. Mr. Pua Seck Guan has a very good track record in his career and now he has the backing of Mr. Kuok and Mr. Sim. Having strong backers definitely helps especially when circumstances for real estate either in Singapore or China are somewhat challenging now. Could PREH have bitten off more than they could chew?

There are some calls to buy into PREH now because it is trading at a big discount to RNAV. Well, PCRT was also trading at a big discount to RNAV. A big difference is that PREH now owns, in part, some investment properties in Singapore which are generating recurring income but these are also bought with borrowed funds.

There is an estimate that the RNAV per share is $1.83. So, at $1.05, the stock is trading at a 43% discount to RNAV. RNAV is what an analyst thinks the stock should be worth in future based on revaluation exercises. Is it realistic? I read a 19 page report dated 4 February 2015 by PhilipCapital and I feel that they have been pretty realistic with valuing PREH's assets in Singapore.

As for the assets in China, PhilipCapital made assumptions as to percentages of certain development properties which would be sold by PREH and they seem to have opted for more conservative estimates with regards to asset values too. Read PhilipCapital's analysis: here.

Now, assuming that the RNAV of $1.83 per share is realistic, we would then have to ask ourselves if a 43% discount to RNAV is good enough for us to buy into PREH. If we are buying this in the hope that Mr. Market would pay a price closer to its RNAV in future, are we prepared to wait? For how long must we wait? I don't know. Will there be dividends in future as we wait? There could be, especially, if they sell bits (or chunks) of their investment properties although they could also very well opt to pare down borrowings. There is no certainty of a dividend.

I have bought into OUE Limited at slightly more than 50% discount to valuation. I have bought into Wing Tai Holdings at about 56% discount to valuation. Will I now buy some PREH at a 43% discount to valuation? I have a feeling that if not for the persistent insider buying, PREH's stock price would have declined to a much lower level by now. Will insider buying let up? Again, I don't know.

PREH is definitely not an investment for income and I don't think that they are likely to pay a dividend anytime soon. PREH is still very much in its growth phase, just like how PCRT was in its growth phase. PREH might have stronger backing compared to PCRT but there are still many unknowns.

Of course, we could choose to put our faith in Mr. Pua Seck Guan's judgement like Mr. Kuok and Mr. Sim have done and invest in PREH. Why get headaches from trying to analyse the business? Truly, I got a mild headache after my amateurish attempt which lasted several hours.

In conclusion, I probably don't have the kind of vision that these esteemed gentlemen have and I know for a fact that I do not have the deep pockets that they have. If I should invest in PREH, I would make sure it is a smallish position similar in size to my investments in OUE Limited and Wing Tai Holdings.

A nibble? Maybe.

Related post:
PCRT: Full divestment.

Could we see Wing Tai Holdings' stock price going higher?

Wing Tai Demo. Wow!

There was some excitement today for retail investors who have a stake in Wing Tai Holdings. Share price formed a long white candle, touching a high of $2.12 a share before closing at $2.11 a share. 

The closing price is some 10.18% higher than the closing price last Friday (i.e. $1.915 a share).

Why did Mr. Market chase Wing Tai Holdings' stock to a much higher price level? 

Could it be that privatisation is on the card? 

If so, what might the offer price be? 

These are some questions which people might be asking.

Well, with NAV/share at about $3.80, could we see an offer of about $3.00 a share or a 20% discount to NAV?

Honestly, I don't know.

What I do know is that the white candle formed today is on the back of much higher volume. In fact, it is the highest daily trading volume in years. This suggests that the upmove in price is likely to have momentum.

Could the stock provide more excitement in the days ahead? I am inclined to think so. 

This might not be over yet.

The momentum oscillators have formed higher highs which suggest that the upward price movement could continue too.

Could I hazard a guess as to the next price target? Well, if no one is going to hold me to it, I could always indulge in a bit of crystal bowling ball gazing.

Using Fibo lines, it seems that the high formed about two years ago in 2013 could be challenged. 

Given time, S$2.37, perhaps?

Related posts:
1. A nibble at Wing Tai Holdings Limited.
2. An incomplete analysis of Wing Tai Holdings.

Wing Tai Asia.

Tea with LS: The Pros and Cons of topping up the CPF-SA.

LS left a very good comment on the CPF recently in my blog and I suggested that a guest blog could be next and here we have the maiden guest blog:

Just want to share with you some of my thoughts on the CPF cash top up to SA. Please note that we are talking about CPF cash top up, not transfer of OA to SA.

I know you have being recommending readers to do cash top up to SA early as this will greatly assist them in achieving their Minimum sum(MS) in the future. While this advice is mathematically sound, does it applies equally to all? Is there any cons involved in such a plan? Let’s us look at some of the pros and cons.

Pros

1) You can enjoy up to $7000 in tax relief per calendar year. The amount of tax relief you get is the amount you contribute to OA/SA, up to S$7000. How much saving do you get from this?  If you are earning more than $80k, the tax rate after the first $80k is 11.5%. Which mean you get a one-time saving of $805 from the $7000 top up. That is a very respectable amount for a one time saving fee. Average Singaporean will be earning between S$40-80k so the tax rate is only 7% which work out to be a one-time saving of $490. Still a decent amount. This clearly works better for the higher income earners but the lesser income earners do get quite a bit of saving too.

2) You get free 4% interest (not accounting in the additional 1% interest for first S$40k in SA) from the government. Who do not like free money from the government? Lol. Contributing S$7000 yearly into SA for the first 10 years and leave it to roll for another 15 years will nett you around S$87k in interest alone after 25 years. That is decent return with a contribution of S$70k of your own. S$87k free money after 25 years, risk free J

3) It can also act as a risk free bond portion in your overall portfolio. This will reduce the overall volatile in your portfolio since the SA will not be affected in times of a crash.

Cons

1) While SA is earning us an interest rate of 4%, there are also other options that is earning more than 4% though not risk free. STI ETF (stock code ES3) is having an average return of 8.55%(inclusion of dividends) since inception from April 2002. Rate of returns does matters especially over a long period of time.

2) Opportunities cost. While transferring S$7000 cash per year might means confirmed 4% compounding and one-time tax saving, you will also lose opportunities to invest in cheap bargains if they do come your way (example like OCBC at S$9 last year and Keppel at S$8 this year). We can always alleviate this 4% loss by putting our money in some high yield saving accounts like OCBC 360 account which earns 3.05% with some terms and condition. (Interest will soon be changed with more details yet to be announced) These high yield accounts provide lesser returns but with no lock up of funds until age of 55. Feel like a good alternative comparing to 4% return but no flexibility in withdrawing of funds at your convenient timing. 

3) Lastly, to enjoy the fruit of the accumulated SA, we have to wait until the draw down age which is 64 in 2015, 65 in 2018 (hopefully no more adjustment to a later age though I highly doubt it) or a portion of the fruits at the age of 55 if you have excess of MS. How you will enjoy your fruit of labour is through the policy of CPF Life. You will enjoy life long monthly pay out with the amount depending on how much you have accumulated and which plan you select. What is not widely known is that the monthly payment is not fixed and will be adjusted depending on the money left in the overall pool that everyone contributes in. The solvency of the fund could be affected by many factors. Mr. Wilfred Ling had sent a post to Straits Times and MOM replied. What we are given is just a verbal assurance that CPF Life scheme is designed to be sustainable. But if they are sure, why do they feel the need to include in the non-payment in the case of insolvency in the bill? Isn’t this like preparing a back door exit and they are not as sure as they want us to believed? So is contributing guaranteed cold hard cash of S$7000 into SA really risk free? Could that money be better used investing somewhere so it will still be available if something do happen to CPF or Singapore?

  

Above are just my thoughts and I am just another common man in the streets with limited knowledge. Read everything with a huge pinch of salt and disregard any portion that you find distasteful.

Also feel free to advise me if I am misguided :P

Thanks for sharing, LS. Appreciate it. :)

Related post:

Should I do a CPF OA to SA transfer?

Attended a Dividend Machines workshop.

I was invited by The Fifth Person to attend one of the workshops they are conducting for their course on income investing, Dividend Machines. They informed me that many of ASSI's readers signed up for the course and, I guess, my appearance could be a form of encouragement to my readers and seeing me (in my usual get-up) could also lighten the mood.

From the many dates available, I chose to make my appearance on 5th of April (Sunday) as it was the most convenient date for me. Here are some photos taken at the event:

Door to the classroom.

Remember our primary and secondary school days?
Students standing at attention to greet the teacher....
Kidding! It was an ice breaker they thought of. ;p

Victor Chng was the trainer covering dividend stocks while Rusmin Ang was the trainer covering REITs. I have known both Victor and Rusmin for a while and they are both brilliant investors. Don't let their youthful good looks deceive you. They are really full time investors although they are quick to admit that they do make mistakes and don't know everything.

I certainly hope that everyone who went for the full day workshop took away with them valuable insights. I know I certainly did although I had to leave halfway through the afternoon session.

Rusmin.

Victor.

Investing in the stock market for income is something which anyone who is thinking of generating another stream of income could consider.

Investing for income will empower us in many ways. It starts by giving us a greater feeling of financial security which might translate into financial freedom later on in life. Of course, I know this for a fact and say this with much confidence.

“Never depend on single income. Make investment to create a second source.” Warren Buffett.

Almost 20 people present in the audience were my readers.
That's a good 40%! So, must take a group photo lah.
Very happy to see everyone leveling up.
I was smiling. Honest.

For readers who signed up for the course through my blog,
I was able to deliver the promised surprise in person too. :)
Actually, is there such a thing as a "promised" surprise? Hmmm...

To everyone who was at the workshop, seeing you hard at work to level up was very inspiring. Yes, I know you had to work at the workshop and not just sit there and listen. Hey, I was put to work too, remember? Taihen desu ne. -.-"

Finally, remember that it is always hardest in the beginning but it will get easier with time. Believe me. I know. Gambatte!

Related posts:
1. Listen to AK and create your Dividend Machines.
2. What is the best insurance to have in life?
3. Retiring a millionaire is not a dream.