"I cry as I see how much the price has gone up."

Reader:
Thanks for always mumbling to yourself.
Have always been looking forward to your post daily.

Since i chosen to write to you, I really must say I appreciated your writings n enlightenment most times if not all the times 'cause sometimes I also got lost with your numbers crunching off the records.




Ok, back to your latest post on "To invest or not in Centurion Corp",

After reading the whole thing, at 54c a share n dividend yield of 3.88%( taken from your calculations), even though you mentioned ,"...on Guoccoland n Tuan Sing, a dividend yield of 2.37% is still relatively decent", I'll not bite simply due to the uncertainties in the market right now with many factors like the north korea, trump, etc

But if i"d bought at the same price like you at 38c with a dividend yield of 3.37%, I may consider adding more at 54c now since the yield has increased though my base price may have gone up after averaging, believing that it's a growth stock.






I know i may miss an opportunity but I dont have a big warchest like you :) :))

The last time I read your vested interest in the above company, I've questions about is imminent expiry of its warrants n possible dilution.
Hence, I hesitated.






Now, I cry as i see how much the price has gone up :((

May I hear you talking to yourself about market directions and your holdings.

I know that one cannot time the market but dont you want to cash out since you're sitting on very good profits.

N hope to catch the next wave again with bigger warchest?

AK:
Don't cry. There will always be other opportunities. Mr. Market is not lazy like AK and will never retire. ;)

OK, I am going to show you how lazy I am again. Read this:
http://singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.sg/2014/11/sell-stocks-now-and-wait-to-buy-back.html





Related post:
To invest or not to invest?

Black market for "Evening with AK and friends"!

Although some readers suggested that reselling tickets to "Evening with AK and friends" could be a lucrative activity, I didn't take it seriously. 

A black market for "Evening with AK and friends"?

Who would do something like this?

I just found out that it is happening:

It is actually happening!

I will tell you right now that "Evening with AK and friends" is not worth paying $100 a ticket for. Well, at least I don't think so.





It irks me to think that black marketers are actually profiting from this when I am doing this for charity.

$65 for the black marketer and $27 for charity (after costs)? 

This is so wrong.

There will always be another "Evening with AK and friends".

So, say "NO" to black marketers.





If you have bought tickets from black marketers, please tell me. 

I don't know if it is possible to find out but I want to know who they are.

If you are a black marketer, I am appealing to you to stop doing what you are doing and return the tickets for a refund. Please.

There are many readers who are genuinely interested in attending my event and they should not have to pay more than $35 a ticket for it.





Regular readers know that ASSI is not about money, money and only money. 

It is also about decency and charity. 

I am very disturbed.

Please help to spread the message and I hope that, in the end, decency prevails.




-----------------

UPDATE (11.40pm):
We have tracked down the black marketer and will process a refund and void the ticket.

Readers who are still interested in getting a ticket should check the ticketing site often in case some tickets are refunded. 

Do not pay more than $35 for a ticket.





Related posts:
1. Evening with AK and friends 2017.
2. 2018 Evening with AK and friends.

2018 "Evenings with AK and friends" in Kallang Theatre?

This was a recent chat with a friend.

Don't read if you don't appreciate my nonsense. You have been warned.

Friend:
How many tickets were available for your event.

AK:
About 150.

Friend:
How many readers do you have?

AK:
I don't know. A few thousand?

Friend:
Let us say you have 10,000 readers, what is the probability of a reader getting a ticket?

AK:
Er... My math is bad. 1.5% chance?

Friend:
You should have booked a bigger venue like the Kallang Theatre. Use your brain lah.

AK:
Kena scolding jin jia cham.

And on FB:

Readers who are interested in getting tickets to "Evening with AK and friends" happening in October should check the ticketing site regularly. 

Tickets could become available again as some readers give up for various reasons. Refer to the related post at the end of this blog.


Related post:
Evening with AK and friends 2017.

Get fantastic dividend yield and AK is like Jay Chou.

Recently, AK was like Xiaxue and, now, AK is like Jay Chou. 

Alamak. So confusing. 

How like that?

Reader:
Hello AK! Looks like things have been good for you recently (as always). 

Unfortunately I couldn’t get a ticket to your evening session. 

Its like Jay Chou concert! 

I do appreciate your jokes among your stock market insights.

Anyway, remember many were surprised you are >80% invested now? 

Well as I reckon many of your stocks were bought at a real bargain in 2008/09 with fantastic dividend yield on cost now.




Basically, I think it’s irrelevant to ask on your holdings now. 

However, if you are willing to share, may I ask what were your %age of stock holdings (vs cash) back in 2007, when stocks were at a all time high? 

Did you somehow Eat Bread With Ink Slowly too? 

Did you think that the market was over-valued and you were expecting a crash? 

Did you prepare yourself for the crash? 





When the bad news kept coming in 2008, how were you reacting? 

I know you kept buying but didn’t you have the slightest fear? 

How did you strategise your entries?




I do appreciate eating bread with ink slowly and I have equipped myself with some value investing knowledge. 

I have also accumulated some stocks that are doing pretty well while making sure I have a good warchest. 

But should we be extra cautious since we are approaching the 10th year after the last stock crash? What’re your views?

AK:
I always eat bread with ink slowly.
(See related post #3 at the end of this blog)

Unless valuations are super cheap, I always have a war chest ready.

I emptied my war chest during the GFC. 

I bought stocks of businesses which would generate good income for me. 




Investing for income, I wasn't concerned with prices going up or down. 

I knew I was getting a bargain.

I didn't borrow money to invest with. 

It was all my own money. 

I didn't have to worry.




A stock which I bought back then which I no longer talk about was Hyflux Water Trust, for example. 

Debt free, at the price I got in, it was generating 17% yield, if I remember correctly.

I don't have all the answers to your questions because I only remember what I feel are important.

Remember that eating bread with ink slowly is a philosophy. 

How we make it work for us, if we want to make it work for us, will depend on the individual.




Related posts:
1. Hyflux Water Trust.
2. Beating our fears as investors.
3. Peace of mind as an investor.

Why did AK want an early retirement?

Hi AK,

Possible to share some of the reasons which led to you opting to retire?

Thks.

Ben

Hi Ben,

I don't want to spend all my life working for money because there are so many things I want to do in life. 

My time is limited.

See:
Life is about many things and my time is in short supply.






Don't want to be in a situation where I do not have enough time to do what I want to do.

See:
Financial freedom and not enough time.

I really have so many things that I enjoy doing and I need more time for them.

See:
Preparing for retirement.






Did I work too hard in my younger days and sacrifice too much? 

Well, I think achieving financial freedom makes it all worthwhile. 

See:
Did I work too hard in my younger days.

Yes, I know.

See:
Financially free AK should be ashamed!






Related post:
Passive income and a higher purpose.

"My investment program costs $4K and AK is like Xiaxue."

Reader:
Hello Ak,
I was at (an investment event) over the weekend and one of the very good speakers from XXX had me sold immediately on the spot. 

So out of impulse purchase, I've signed up a >$4k worth of investment program on value investing.





Now back home and doing abit of research on XXX reviews, its hard for me to further convince myself to further go on the course due to the mix reviews. 

I know you are one of the most straightforward person on the blogosphere other than xiaxue, and with your knowledge in the investment and finance world, may I know what's your take? 

I really need your brutal honest advice.

You can talk to yourself on this and accidentally reply my email. Thanks!

AK:
Alamak. AK straightforward like Xiaxue?

OK, maybe, I take that as a compliment. ;p

What would Xiaxue say to you in this case? Hmmm... 

OK, I don't know but I know what I would say.




Let me guess. 

It was a free event but there was plenty of aggressive selling going on?

Impulse buying har? 

Bad! Baaad!

$4K is a lot of money too and I know for a fact that you have to pay a few K more after that to get into an "inner circle".




I have never attended atas investment courses nor paid lots of money to be in any related program before and I probably never would. 

Despite this, I think I have done OK.

Alamak, I accidentally tapped the "send" button!

Please ignore my email. 

It was an accident. 

Really, please ignore me.






Education is essential but how much should we pay for education? 

Cheap things not good? 

Good things not cheap?

Aiyoh. 

Don't ask me. 

I blur.

OK, I confess. 

I don't know if I am like Xiaxue but I like Xiaxue. :)

What? 

Wrong answer? 

Cham lah liddat.




Related posts:
1. Little Book of Value Investing.
2. Secret of my success.

Evening with AK and friends 2017.

As promised, here are the details of the only session of "Evening with AK and friends" in 2017:

Venue:
Lifelong Learning Institute
11 Eunos Road 8
Event Hall 1-1
Singapore 408601

Date:
6 October 2017 (Friday)

Time:
7:00 PM – 10:00 PM

Buy tickets: HERE





This is, as usual, a chit chat session with AK. Nothing too cerebral. 

Just bring along your sense of humour and, if you like, a pen and notebook.

Bring a pen and notebook for what? Take note of AK's jokes? Er...

You blur? I also blur. 

---------------------------------
I am absolutely amazed that all 160 tickets were sold out in less than 4 hours.

However, readers who are still interested in getting tickets should check the ticketing site regularly up to 7 days before the event. 

It is possible that some tickets could become available again as some readers give up their tickets for various reasons.

Related post:
Attended "Evening with AK and friends"?

Do this to inject more funds into CPF-SA?

InvestSg:
Got a question: Is it possible to max out SA, use the money to buy SG gov bonds, then top up SA again to max, and then sell the SGBs and return money back to SA? workable bo?

From AK's FB wall:

Click to enlarge.

AK:
I have yet to see anyone do this. Personally, I don't think it is advisable unless we want much more of our funds in our CPF-SA which we cannot access till we are 55. Liquidity should be a pertinent consideration.

Definitely, like I have always said, it is prudent to treat the CPF-SA as the investment bond component of our investment portfolio but, for the average investor, going beyond the FRS is probably overdoing it.

The exceptions would be investors who are very rich and the FRS is too low a percentage of their total portfolio.

Even in such cases, it could be a good idea to consider genuine bonds (like the Singapore Savings Bond) and not a pseudo bond like the CPF to park the spare cash.

It is my belief that I should use the CPF as a cornerstone and not as the entire foundation of my retirement funding strategy.
----------------
Update:

Oliver Tan:
What you have in SA +any investment (using SA money) cannot exceed prevailing FRS. So answer to InvestSg should be "impossible".

Related posts:
1. 4 ways to boost our CPF savings.
2. Build a cornerstone in retirement funding.

To invest or not to invest in Centurion Corporation?

I only became a shareholder of Centurion Corporation Limited in February this year and, since then, its share price has gone up by quite a bit. 

A question I have been asked more than a few times recently was whether Centurion was still good to buy?

Of course, regular readers know that, for a long time now, I don't answer such questions. 

Even if I do answer, it is usually cryptic which could be quite valuable an answer looking at the trend in cryptocurrencies now.

What? Not funny? Alamak.

The thing to do is always ask what do we want out of something, see if that something does the job and we will know if that something is suitable for us.




What I do in my blog is only to share my thoughts and how they guide my decisions. Think of my blogs as simply sharing an approach and not the answer.

I don't know if there is any value in this but I like to think that there is some value from learning someone's approach, good or bad.

Ultimately, your decision should be guided by your own thoughts and not someone else's.







With that out of the way, I am going to talk to myself a bit about Centurion.

Almost all my investment decisions have investing for income as a consideration. 

When I looked at Centurion earlier this year, this was also an important consideration as I was looking for reliable income generators to replace certain income stocks which I voluntarily or involuntarily sold in the recent past.




I am prone to repeating myself as I grow older. 

So, if you are interested in my initial analysis on Centurion, please see related post #1 at the end of this blog.

Of course, what I did not know was that Centurion was planning a dual listing on the HKSE which was approved earlier this month. 

I see this as a good thing. See related post #2 at the end of this blog for some speculative flavor.





Centurion is heavily in debt but it is good debt because they are using borrowed funds to generate more earnings from their investments. 

However, debt fueled growth can be dangerous as my misadventure with a certain locally listed O&G related company constantly reminds me.

So, raising funds from a secondary listing to help fuel their growth in the student hostel business in Australia instead of borrowing more money is a good idea. 





Of course, there were other reasons given for the decision to have a secondary listing in Hong Kong but I zoomed in on what I thought was more important to me as a shareholder, as an investor for income.

A larger equity base without any increase in borrowings would mean a lower gearing level. 

A stronger balance sheet is a good thing especially for an entity as highly geared as Centurion.

However, when there are more shares issued, something must give. 

We cannot have our cake and eat it too, after all.







Centurion is preparing to offer another 36,000,000 shares in Hong Kong. This will lead to some dilution for existing shareholders. 

On a per share basis, earnings would be impacted, everything else remaining equal.

So, is my original thesis to invest in Centurion for income still valid?

If we look at related post #1, back then, I assumed an EPS of 3.7c a year. I also assumed a payout ratio of 40%. 

I decided that a dividend yield of about 4% from a growth company was attractive enough.




Centurion has about 737.4 million shares in issue. Now, with the offer of 36,000,000 new shares in Hong Kong, we would see EPS diluted to 3.5c a year.

If the almost 74.8 million warrants (with an exercise price of 50c per warrant) expiring on 27 October 2017 should be exercised as well, we would see EPS diluted further to 3.2c a year.

OK, math was not a strong subject of mine. 

So, I hope my calculations are up to scratch.




Anyway, if we go with the numbers above, a 40% pay out ratio would mean a DPS of 1.28c. 

Based on my entry price, that is a dividend yield of 3.37% and based on 54c a share, it is 2.37%. 

If you have read my blogs on Guocoland and Tuan Sing, a dividend yield of 2.37% is still relatively decent.







However, things have progressed quite a bit since February and Centurion reported an EPS of 3.5c for 1H 2017. 

Could we see a full year EPS of 7c?

In such an instance, after listing in Hong Kong and with all the outstanding warrants exercised, Centurion's fully diluted EPS could be 6c. A 40% payout ratio would give a DPS of 2.4c. 




Based on 54c a share, it would give a dividend yield of 4.44%.

Centurion is still in growth mode and it is very likely that the management will deploy funds from the warrants, if exercised, into new projects as well. 

So, debt is likely to remain high. 




It would be prudent to retain the assumption that I made in February that we could see 0.8c knocked off from its EPS from a future 1% increase in interest rate.

In such an instance, fully diluted EPS could be 5.3c and a 40% payout ratio would give a DPS of 2.1c. 

Based on 54c a share, dividend yield would be 3.88%.

What? 

Should you buy or not?




Alamak, how to buy 4D? 3.88. Only 3 numbers lah.

What? Wrong answer?

Aiyoh. I blur.

Related posts:
1. Invested in Centurion
2. Centurion to double?
3. Centurion's earnings sky rocketing.

Attended "Evening with AK" and bought books from BetterWorldBooks?

I have been an affiliate of Better World Books for a while now because I like the idea of doing my part for the environment and also to improve literacy for underprivileged children. 

I have not been blogging about them for a while and here is a recent chat with a reader.

Reader:
I went to better world books to get my books. but i only received 2 out of 6 books i bought. to me it's ok since i got them for much cheaper than getting them new. but since u r still endorsing this website on your blog, thought u might want to know. maybe they are not as reliable since you first endorse them...

AK:
Actually, it happened to me once before.
You just have to write to them and tell them you did not receive your books and they will send you replacements.

Reader:
i did, just letting u know since u endorsed them on your blog. just a disclaimer.

AK:
They sent me a replacement and it arrived with the original book I ordered.
So, I concluded that the problem was with the shipping and not BWB.

Reader:
Yes i understand. it's tough for them since they are just the middleman. ok good to know u still hv faith in them.





AK:
Not faith or not lah.
It is just that if I have to buy a book, I rather buy it pre-owned, cheaper, good for environment and help the poor. 🙂
Charity lah. 🙂

Reader:
haha you have become my favorite Santa Claus. Real in person and giving real gifts!

AK:
We are very fortunate people. If we can help the less fortunate, why not?

The world can do with a bit more charity and I am only doing my part. 🙂

All proceeds from "Evening with AK and friends" go to helping needy students, for example.

There will be one session later this year but only one. I really lazy this year. 😞





If you are thinking of buying a book, go to related post #1 below and you will be doing more than just buying a book. You will be saving money, saving the environment and saving lives.

To everyone who has attended "Evening with AK and friends" in the past, thank you too for helping needy students.

Also, look out for the next session of "Evening with AK and friends" which is going to be the only one this year. I will blog about it once all the details are firmed up.

To those who don't know, "Evening with AK and friends" is a chit chat session. If you have high expectations of me, it is best to give it a miss. ;)

Although I want to accommodate a larger group because the tickets usually sell out very quickly, it probably isn't going to be possible. 

So, if you want to get a ticket to the event, check my blog regularly in the next few weeks and, of course, once you see the blog, fast hands fast legs.

Related posts:
1. Donate a book to the needy.
2. AK helps needy students.
3. AK gets invited by NUS

4 ways to beef up our CPF savings! (InvestX Congress and the CPF.)

I hope everyone who went to InvestX Congress today had a good time. 

To my regular readers who were there, I hope it wasn't too boring listening to me repeating the same old stuff about the CPF. 

Anyway, for the benefit of some in the audience who told me that they might have trouble remembering everything I shared today, here are some salient points from my segment:





Beef up your CPF account.

You could do these:

1. Top Up your SA (not beyond FRS)

2. Voluntary contribution to your MA only (together with mandatory contributions, not beyond CPF annual limit and, on its own, not beyond BHS)

You will also get income tax relief for doing the above. For #1, only for the first $7,000 each year.






3. OA to SA transfer (not beyond FRS)

4. Voluntary contribution (allocated to OA, SA and MA) (together with mandatory contributions, not beyond CPF annual limit)


These will not get any income tax relief.





We don't have to do everything to capture all the benefits. It is not like Pokemon GO and we gotta catch them all. Just do what we can.

For me, the big thing was doing OA to SA transfer in the first 4 years of my life as a working adult. I emptied my OA into my SA. 

Did this in the first 4 years of my working life instead of the last 4 years of my working life. 







That makes a big difference because compound interest needs time to work its magic and a bigger base earlier makes it more magical.

Also, have enough in our CPF-MA and the interest income we receive yearly from the government will pay for our insurance. Who says there is no free medical insurance in Singapore?

See:
http://singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.sg/2013/12/how-to-get-free-medical-insurance-in.html 

Please read the following blog for updates:
CPF Amendment Bill 2021.

Here are links to some of my other blogs on the topic:

1. http://singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.sg/2017/01/ak-showing-off-his-cpf-oa-and-ma-2017.html

2. http://singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.sg/2015/01/how-did-ak-amass-so-much-money-in-his.html

3. http://singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.sg/2016/02/the-cpf-is-really-national-ponzi-scheme.html



If AK can do it, so can you! Gambatte!

23yo bought 40yo HDB flat and worried.

Reader:

I am currently 23years old & married. My husband and I purchased a resale flat last year.

Back then we did not read nor have knowledge about financial planning. 

We purchased what we want and our desired location...

Our resale flat is actually quite old. I think is 40 years old this year...

Many people called us stupid for buying resale flat instead of BTO ones. 

And since we didn't have proper financial planning, we exhausted our entire CPF to pay for the flat.

So, our CPF is 0 now. 

We also took a loan of 25 years...

I am beginning to learn how to invest and starting small. May I ask how can I actually do better in planning my finance? 

Thank you for taking your time to read my email. Hope to see your reply.

AK:
How do you start doing better in your finances? That is a very broad question. It is very difficult for me to answer with specifics. 

Here are a few blogs you might want to read:

1. http://singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.sg/2014/03/graduating-soon-take-steps-towards.html

2. http://singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.sg/2015/05/how-much-should-we-have-in-our.html

3. http://singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.sg/2017/04/hdb-flat-is-37-years-old-and-son-is.html


4. http://singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.sg/2017/07/buying-properties-with-short-remaining.html


There are many other relevant links in my blog. 

Go to the right sidebar of my blog and read those suggested especially those listed under "WEALTH CREATION".
-----------------------------
If we to learn from mistakes, we will avoid them and make better decisions in future.

Don't beat ourselves up.

This reader has the right attitude. Gambatte!