If you have been following my posts on Golden Agriculture in recent days, you would get an impression of how TA works for me. TA can never show us what will happen. It can only show what might happen and there will always be two possibilities in price movement, up or down, with varying probabilities. What we can see quite clearly would be things like supports, resistance and trend, amongst a few other things. TA informs on fair exit prices in the event that price goes up and in the event the price goes down, what are safer entry prices. If the uptrend is intact, buy at supports and wait to sell at resistance; if the price does not move up but moves back down to support, consider increasing exposure.
Using Golden Agriculture as a case study, let us do a recap:
In my post of 5 March, I mentioned that Golden Agriculture's price action formed a white hammer, closing at 54.5c, suggesting that a trend reversal is at hand. Initial resistance at 57c, followed by 59c. On 8 Mar, I mentioned that the white spinning top formed was unlikely to be a trend reversal signal because it did not take place after several consecutive days of upmove in price. On 9 Mar, yesterday, a doji was formed, another possible trend reversal signal and it was accompanied by a decline in the MFI. I suggested that if the malaise continued today, the counter might do a gap cover to 54.5c where it will have initial support and I would accumulate on weakness as the uptrend is intact with the rising 100dMA at 50.5c.
So, the strategy? Divest at resistance of 57c and 59c in case of an upmove. Accumulate on weakness in case of a move down to 54.5c and 50.5c as the uptrend is intact. Whichever direction the price moves, we have a plan. My overnight sell queue was done and I have partially divested at 59c this morning, retaining a smallish position in case the price continues to move up. This is a hedge, which is another one of my strategies.
For anyone who has been following my trading strategy so far, I hope you have made some good money. Remember, it is never wrong to take profit.
Related post:
Rationale for partial divestment.
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Golden Agriculture: Partial divestment at 59c.
Wednesday, March 10, 2010Posted by AK71 at 1:21 PM 11 comments
Labels:
Golden Agriculture,
TA
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