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CapitaMalls Asia and AusGroup.

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

CapitaMalls Asia: Price closed below the trendline support today at $2.29, after touching a low of $2.28 (the 38.2% Fibo line).  Technically, this is supported by the declining 50dMA.  The decline is on the back of low volume with the MFI and OBV more or less unchanged.  These signs suggest that a benign low volume pullback is taking place.  However, this does not mean that price would not continue to drift downwards.  If the $2.28 support is broken, the next support level is at $2.25 which would see me buying more.

AusGroup:  Nice up day with price closing at resistance provided by the 50dMA at 60c after hitting a high of 61.5c on the back of increased volume.  MFI and OBV have both turned up which suggest that buying momentum and accumulation are both moving up a notch. 





We have a buy signal on the MACD as well and it seems poised to cross above zero. Resistance is provided by the merged 100d and 200d MAs at 63c. Initial support is at 58.5c. A negative is the long wick on the white candle which suggests selling later on in the session today.  This adds a cautionary tone in an otherwise positive picture.

Charts in brief: 23 Mar 10.

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Golden Agriculture: 56.5c, up 0.5c. The rising 20dMA has been doing a great job of supporting the price so far.  Buying at the initial support of 55.5c yesterday and a bid higher at 56c as a hedge, I am now waiting to buy more if the price corrects to 55c and 54.5c.  No satisfaction as yet.  Lower trading volume since the high formed on 10 March suggests that this is a low volume pullback.  Looking at the OBV, we do not see any obvious distribution.  Looking at the MFI, 50% appears to be functioning as a support.  The underlying support is intact.

Healthway Medical: A low volume black candle day as price closed unchanged at 16.5c.  MFI continues to decline and a lower low is a forgone conclusion, suggesting that the buying momentum is weakening yet again.  OBV has flattened and this suggests a temporary respite from distribution activities.  16c remains the support to watch.

CapitaMalls Asia:  $2.32.  I did a FA for this counter recently when a reader asked me about it.  This is the first time I am doing a TA for this counter as I think it is beginning to look interesting technically.  The counter is fundamentally strong and, technically, I see a fairly good entry price at $2.30.




Looking at the OBV, it is fairly obvious that distribution peaked on 11 Feb 10.  There has been a slow but gradual accumulation since then.  Despite a sharp decline in the MFI since 12 Mar 10, the OBV has been rising gradually.  This suggests that even as the buying momentum declines, the weakness is being seized to accumulate more shares here as weak holders sell out.

Price action went momentarily below the trendline support today which is almost where the 50dMA is at $2.30.  $2.30 is also the 50% Fibo support.  There is a good chance that the price will move higher from here as the 20dMA is rising and there is an uptrend channel since the price bottomed in February at $2.19.  The target of the next move up could be estimated by looking at the trendline resistance which I have drawn by connecting the two recent highs.  In time, we could expect the top of a larger base formation at $2.55 to be tested.

Downside seems limited.  In the event that the price moves lower, supports are at $2.28 and $2.25, the 38.2% and 23.6% Fibo lines.


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