AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Rising MACD.

The MACD on this chart has stopped declining.  In fact, it seems to be rising gently, forming higher lows. Higher lows were spotted earlier on in the MFI which suggests firm underlying demand.

The rising 200dMA is at 21c and this, in my opinion, would provide very strong support. Immediate support is at 21.5c while immediate resistance is at 22c.  The downtrend line connecting the highs of 17 Sep and 19 Nov suggests that strong resistance is to be found at 22.5c in the current timeframe.

A quick check on the weekly chart confirms strong support to be at 21c and that the longer term trend is up. I bought more today at 22c and would continue to accummulate on weakness.

Related post:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: High yield with limited downside.

First REIT: Excess rights not enough.

First REIT's rights issue is a resounding success. Valid acceptances at 97.7% which means there are not many excess rights to go around. Of the 7,790,838 rights which were not validly accepted, rounding up of odd lots would have priority. Seeing how there are 88,002,026 excess rights applied for, chances are most of the funds would be refunded to those who applied for excess rights. This includes me.

Rights units would be issued on 30 Dec and will start trading on SGX Main Board on 31 Dec.

Read announcement here.

I believe that there is some fear that First REIT could see a fall in price when the rights units start trading as people cash in their excess rights for a 40% capital gain. Personally, I do not think that very probable. If priority is given to people who need to round up odd lots, how much excess rights would they be able to sell to realise this gain? With such an overwhelming number of excess rights applied for, each unit holder who did apply for excess rights could end up with one or just a few lots of excess rights.

Personally, if I were successful in getting any excess rights at all, I would hold on to them for an estimated yield of 12.8% (6.4c/50c). I would also hold on because I believe the fair value to be closer to 80c (for an 8% yield). I won't be in a hurry to sell.

Having said this, Mr. Market is unpredictable mostly. Price is currently at support provided by the 20d and 50d MAs at 70.5c. In case of a pull back, expect support at 69c, as provided by the rising 100dMA.

First REIT's management also announced that its existing portfolio has been revalued at $355.5 million, an increase of $14.6 million from the end of 2009. This means that NAV for the REIT is now higher by some 4.3% and this would also lower its gearing level a bit. Good news.

Related post:
First REIT: XR and fair value.