Raffles Education: Resistance at 200dMA.

Raffles Education extended gains yesterday and closed at 30c, the resistance provided by the 200dMA. A wickless white candle was formed on the back of increased volume. OBV rose steeply, signalling accumulation. MACD rose into positive territory, signalling the return of positive momentum.

MFI and RSI rose higher, crossing into overbought territories. Although signalling heightened demand and positive buying momentum, the indices, being in overbought regions, suggested that further gains could be limited. This panned out today.

A doji was formed today, suggesting indecision. Although the momentum oscillators continue to rise, the OBV has flattened, signalling a stop to accumulation. The explosive rise in price could be at an end. Pull back could find support at 27.5c and 26.5c, as provided by the 100d and 50d MAs, respectively.

Related post:
Raffles Education: Sold at 27.5c resistance.

Raffles Education +5.5%; buybacks give confidence - Kim Eng
Thursday, 06 January 2011

© 2011 - The Edge Singapore

FSL Trust: Sold some at 48c.

Yesterday, I reduced my long position in FSL Trust at 48c, locking in some gains. You might remember that I sold some on 30 Dec at 47c. Then, I mentioned that "In a benign situation, I expect gap resistance at 46c to become support in the near term. This is further strengthened by the uptrend support line. Technically, the worst seems to be over for FSL Trust and a retest of resistance at 48.5c looks likely in time." 48c is just one bid away from 48.5c and selling some at 48c is a hedge in case price weakens.

A doji was formed yesterday, suggesting indecision, while the uptrending MFI broke its support when it emerged from the overbought territory a day earlier. Encouraging though some technicals might be with the MACD continuing to rise and the OBV showing no signs of distribution, the RSI was way overbought.

My long position in FSL is for a trade and the entry was not based on fundamentals, which are lacking. So, reducing my long position, locking in gains at resistance and at signs of weakening demand, at least partially, is prudent although it could limit gains in case of further price appreciation.

Today, 48c remains the resistance as a gravestone doji was formed. The stalemate between bulls and bears is obvious but it seems as if the bulls are tiring. Further upside seems difficult and could be limited to a retest of the high of 48.5c touched on 21 Oct 10. A pull back would see immediate support at 46c which is also where the 20dMA is rising to form a golden cross with the declining 200dMA.

Related post:
FSL Trust: Sold some at 47c.

What are the charts forecasting for 2011?

When I initially started out on Technical Analysis, I would see how seasoned chartists like Michael Kahn, Goola Warden and Daryl Guppy read the charts. So, I am excited that Daryl Guppy will be sharing his views on the stock market outlook for Singapore investors in 2011 very soon.

Daryl Guppy is a regular commentator on CNBC Asia and is known as 'The Chartman'. He is recognized globally for the quality of his analysis. He actively trades equities and associated derivatives markets. Daryl has also developed several leading technical indicators used by traders, and is recognized as an expert on China markets.

We can also learn how to use SiMSCI warrants to take a leveraged view on the Singapore market without the need to stock pick.

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http://singaporeanstocksinvestor.blogspot.com/2010/11/best-way-to-trade-singapore-index.html

ADVERTORIAL

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Firm support.

The last time I blogged about this REIT was on 29 Dec and I mentioned the rising MACD. This is still valid today. The MACD is rising gently and seems on the verge of crossing into positive territory. With the longer term 100d and 200d MAs both rising, it would seem to be a matter of time before the resistance at the 50dMA is taken out. This is at 22c.

The MFI has been forming higher lows and would be testing 50% once more. If it overcomes this, it would mean an expansion in volume at the current price of 22c or higher. This is one counter that has very limited downside and a nice probability of trading to 25c (for an 8% yield). In the meantime, at 22c, its distribution yield is about 9.1%. I am accumulating.

Related post:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Rising MACD.