Sabana REIT: Initiated long position.

Initiated a long position in Sabana REIT at 93c and 92.5c today. 93c was, of course, a hedge, while 92.5c was the price I have been waiting for since late last year shortly after the REIT's IPO.

The IPO price was at $1.05/unit. So, getting in at the prices that I did today represents a discount of more than 11% from the IPO price. The NAV per unit is 99c and my entry prices today represent a discount of more than 6% to NAV. With an estimated DPU of 8.63c for 2011, my investment today will enjoy a distribution yield of about 9.3%. With a gearing level of 26.5%, I believe this REIT is a fairly safe investment in the next couple of years.

Technically, the REIT looks rather weak and is suffering from some heavy selling which saw its price touch a low of 92c today. A single sell order at 9.42AM accounted for 1,215 lots sold down at 92.1c per unit. It seems that someone is selling down the REIT and we see 100 lots being sold down regularly throughout the day at 93c per unit. Volume was really heavy. More downside seems likely.

What's next? Fundamentally, any further price weakness would make this REIT even more attractive to me. However, I am not in a hurry to accumulate. After all, I have gotten my foot in the door today. I will now monitor the technicals until there are more favourable signs to add to my initial long position. 91c next? Possibly. Keep an eye on the MACD and see if a higher low forms as price forms a lower low. We are on the lookout for a potential positive divergence.

After all, given the fact that Sabana REIT should be announcing its first income distribution soon, could we not see a reversal of its downtrend in the near future? The REIT, as per its prospectus, "will make distributions to Unitholders on a quarterly basis, with the amount calculated as at 31 March, 30 June, 30 September and 31 December each year for the three-month period ending on each of the said dates."

Good luck, mon ami.


Related post:
Sabana REIT: Being stubborn?

New or Resale Property – Which One Is a Better Investment?

The following post is excerpted from the newly launched Secrets of Singapore Property Gurus, in an interview with Getty Goh, Director of Ascendant Assets.

Based on the research my company has done, we found that buyers will have a higher chance of getting value-for-money deals by buying resale properties. If you think about it, it is actually quite intuitive. After all, developers are in the business of selling properties for profits. With many of them having ample financial reserves, how cheaply do you think they will sell their new units for? 

Resale properties on the other hand are bought from other owners, who can be selling for a variety of reasons. While some of the homeowners may be savvy investors, there will definitely be others who need to dispose their property urgently and are prepared to sell their unit at a discount.

It is possible to get a good deal on a resale property

I have personally come across numerous value-for-money deals. Let me share one such deal that my company helped a client secure. In late 2009, I was helping a client find an investment property. As he did not want to over-stretch himself, the investment budget was set at $700,000. After several weeks of searching, we eventually found a suitable unit that was going for $650,000. Based on my company’s research, we knew that it was a good deal as the asking price of similar sized units in the same development was about $100,000 more than the asking price for that unit. In addition, we found out that the seller was parting with his property for a loss of more the $50,000. All these were indications of a value-for-money unit and we were confident that my client would have easily made a tidy profit had he decided to flip the unit.

We later found out that the owners were willing to let the unit go at a discount because they were going through a divorce and wanted to quickly divide the assets. From this experience, it reaffirmed my belief that there are plenty of good resale deals. It is just a matter of how diligent we are in our search to find them.

The benefits of buying directly from the developer

That said, I am not implying that buyers should totally avoid new sales as there are advantages to buying properties direct from developers. Firstly, when someone buys a property directly from developers, they will be entitled to a one year Defects Liability Period (DLP) that starts when the development receives its Temporary Occupancy Permit (TOP). During the DLP, any defects found will be rectified by the developer. Resale units do not have such liability periods and buyers will have to rectify any defects at their own expense.

Another advantage in new sale purchases is that buyers generally are able to choose the unit they want. However this is dependent on how buoyant the property market is at that point in time. Nonetheless, under normal market conditions, buyers are able to select the units they desire.

Lastly, payment schemes for new and resale purchases are different. New sale buyers can opt for a progressive payment method, while resale buyers will have to start serving their mortgage based on the full loan amount after the sale is completed. While there are pros and cons for new and resale properties, I feel that resale properties will be a better bet for those who are looking for value-for-money deals.