Yongnam: Profit guidance 3Q 2013.

Yongnam's share price declined more than 10% early this morning. Reason? The management issued a profit guidance. It is more like a fair warning that the latest quarter's results will be negative and that investors should not be too optimistic. This is due to:

1. Cost overruns from 3 on-going projects, paring operating margin to new lows

and

2. A significant one-off loss on disposal of some fixed assets.

So, what did I do? Thanks to an SMS alert from a friend, I did a quick read of the announcement before buying more at 24c a share.



I believe that Yongnam's position in the construction industry is not shaken. It owns a large inventory of reusable steel struts which are valuable assets as they also present a high barrier to entry in Yongnam's niche in the industry.

The decline in share price has presented a good opportunity for me to buy into the business at a discount to NTA. I cannot see how it is a bad idea to own what Yongnam has at a discount.

Of course, cost overruns and suffering losses are unpleasant but we are buying a business with an eye on its future. So, it is important to question if such instances will become the norm? Will they happen again and again in the future? Will they be persistent?

I am of the belief that these are one-off events and that Yongnam's balance sheet will not be negatively impacted in any big way. Overall, Yongnam will still remain profitable for the year although it will pale in comparison to the year before.

Yongnam's future is bright as they will be a beneficiary of the government's drive to double the MRT network in Singapore and there will be work aplenty until 2030. Even if there should not be any iconic projects (which is unlikely), Yongnam will probably have quite a bit of work to keep them busy in the years ahead.

When one-off events like this send Mr. Market into a manic depression, they present a chance for me to buy a business with a proven track record and a bright future at a discount.

Some of us might remember there were times when Mr. Market was very optimistic about Yongnam (for example, on the Myanmar airport projects). Its share price rose to be much higher then. That was probably a bad time to buy.

Please note that I am not glossing over the challenges that Yongnam is facing. Like other construction companies, Yongnam is having a hard time with cost pressures.

With a 3Q loss, they might or might not pay a dividend for the year although a lower DPS should not be demanding. Without major CAPEX in the year, this is a possibility.

See:
Profit guidance: 3Q 2013

Related post:
Yongnam: A chance to accumulate cheaper.

Photos of AK's home.

In my last blog post, some readers thought that the photos were of my home.

Nope. Too luxurious. 

Anyway, curiosity is only natural and since I took some photos of my place a couple of years ago, here they are:

Main entrance to my home on the right.

I gave away the TV console and LCD TV to my sister.

Kitchen with inexpensive washing machine and fridge.

The rather small guest room which was rented out to a friend.

Washroom.

My bedroom.

This is SPARTA!

Related post:
Moved in after 2 weeks and an $8,000 renovation.