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STI breaks 3,000 points and stays above 3,000 points!

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Although I am keeping to my pledge to spend more time with my family this year, I am also blogging less frequently because work got a bit more demanding.

I might have some spare time occassionally but instead of blogging, I just feel like spending time with a book or watching some movies on my iPad.

I know that some readers are lamenting the recent paucity of blog posts in ASSI and I apologise if I have disappointed.

Anyway, let's talk about my investments. I am now between 50% to 60% invested, closer to 50% is my estimate. With the bulk of my investment for passive income, I don't really have to do very much apart from looking at quarterly reports and receiving regular passive income.

On the real estate front, I am keeping an eye on developments as, after selling my properties last year, I am on a constant lookout for developments in good locations at fair prices.

3,011.68  Up 24.27

Enough of generalities. I put on my blogging cap this evening because the stock market rallied today and broke the 3,000 mark on high volume. The bull has legs and anyone who is still staying on the side with almost 100% in cash could be feeling quite despondent now.

Personally, I experimented with partially divesting some of my investments in REITs in the hope that prices would weaken upon XD to supports so that I could accumulate on weakness. This gambit has fared poorly, unfortunately for me.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, the second largest investment in my portfolio, rocketed to an intraday high of $1.10 before closing at $1.085. Fundamentally, it is still undervalued although technically, $1.10 could be a resistance to watch. The next higher resistance is at $1.125 while support is at the former resistance of $1.025.

My original plan of buying on weakness at 97c or so has to be shelved for now.

Sabana REIT, the largest investment in my portfolio, has tested its recent high of 91.5c yet again. Immediate support is at 90c. See the higher lows formed since early August 2011 while price repeatedly tested the gap resistance and gap fill at 91c and 91.5c?

Could Sabana REIT break resistance and go higher as well? My original plan to purchase more units upon retracement to stronger supports starting at 87c is also being shelved for now.

What is most satisfying about today's rally for me is the long white candle formed on the back of much higher volume for CapitaMalls Asia. The downtrend is well and truly broken. An uptrend is firmly entrenched. Notice how volume has been increasing as price rose from the bottom formed in late December last year? This rally should be durable because volume has been increasing.

Using Fibonacci lines, we see that price closed today at where the 123.6% Fibo line approximates. This is likely a weak resistance and would crumble in time. Golden ratios are at $1.70, $1.75 and $1.795. With half of my investment in the stock at $1.45 and lower, I might take some profit off the table if these ratios should be tested.

30% of my investments are between $1.60 to $1.80. The balance are at $1.80+. These, I might divest to limit losses especially if things look toppish. For now, it looks like price could go higher in the near term. Good luck to one and all.

Related posts:
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: 3Q FY2012.
Sabana REIT: 4Q 2011 results.
CapitaMalls Asia: Net profit up 42.6%.


Rookie said...

Hi AK, thanks for blogging again. Felt like a drug addict. Believe it or not..i have been checking for your new blog post for the past few days. LOL.
Somehow i knew that the crossing of 3000 points for STI index will surely "tempt" you to blog tonight.

FoodieFC said...

Hi AK 71

Its likely you can shelve most of your plans for purchases for now. Unless tomorrow, the news is that Greece defaults. =)

Never know what will happen

AK71 said...

Hi Rookie,

Wah! ASSI is a drug? I hope the narcotics bureau doesn't get wind of this. Haha..

I hope you have not had any serious withdrawal symptoms to deal with in the meantime too. ;p

AK71 said...

Hi FoodieFC,

Indeed, Mr. Market is known to be rather perverse at times. ;)

I am quite happy not adding to my long positions unless I see a retracement to supports. Of course, if prices do a correction using time instead, then, too bad for me.

SnOOpy168 said...

nice to hear from you again AK.

just got out of CMA after breaking even with a bit of kopi $. yup, it did go higher 10mins before closing. but I rather not be greedy. am eyeing to exit a few more counters, once I hit breakeven. Missed the end 2011 chance to buy-in STI EFT.

will be sitting by the ring side for the moment. I am too inexperienced (and kiasi) to quick trade.

This year, I will be patience, with some cash in the pocket for rights & bargin.

INVS 2.0 said...

Hi Ak71,

I sold half of my holdings since the rally began last month and locked in profits here and there. Don't think I will touch the stock market again for some time until the next bearish trend comes.

Now the job now for me, is to chase those lazy DBS brokers to increase my limits. >:(

AK71 said...

Hi SnOOpy168,

As long as you got out at the price you wanted, I think you should be happy. I am pretty ZEN about things like that.

I make my money and others make theirs. Sometimes, I lose money but if I make more than I lose, I think I'm OK, overall.

Keeping cash and waiting for future opportunities is not wrong. Keeping 100% cash or close to that is what should worry people. ;)

AK71 said...

Hi INVS 2.0,

I think you might want to give them a copy of your latest CDP statement to show them that your current limit is insufficient. :)

Ray said...

Hi AK,

Welcome back!
My neck is long in waiting for new posts from you :)

Dow fell quite a lot yesterday, nearly 3 digits. The long awaited correction? let's wait and see ;)

AK71 said...

Hi Ray,

I hope you have not suffered too much trying to sleep with a longer neck. ;p

A correction would be anything up to a 20% decline in prices. Beyond that, the bear would have returned. Let's see.

Ray said...

Ha ha, I really havent been sleeping well to be honest, but I don't think you're the cause ha ha.

By any chance you're following Olam? fell quite a bit these few days.

AK71 said...

Hi Ray,

Oh my. I hope it is nothing serious.

Olam is something I look at sometimes but it is not on my watchlist. My plate is full.

Ray said...

Hi AK,

Thanks, i don't think its serious ;)

Wah, full plate huh? Been doing your rounds at the buffet spread? :)
Well, there's always room for desserts! :D
This one looks tasty too and I'm keeping my eye on it.

AK71 said...

Hi Ray,

Hahaha... I look at Olam sometimes because my mother is interested in it.

I just told her that we should see support at $2.41 which is where we find the top of a base formation. It is also where we find the 50% Fibo retracement line. ;)

Anonymous said...

Finally could sell off my CMA shares at a slight profit after enduring such a miserable time during last year's Sept meltdown of the stock market.

AK71 said...

Hi Kelvin,

I guess your patience has paid off. :)

Rookie said...

Whats ur take on LMIR's recent result and DPU.

INVS 2.0 said...

Hi Ak71,

Lazy broker has upped my limit by a lot. Looks like I will have more muscles to play the game in the future. :)

AK71 said...

Hi Rookie,

I just published a blog post on the subject. Check it out. :)

AK71 said...

Hi INVS 2.0,

I wish I could grow real muscles by making just a phonecall instead of hitting the gym. ;p

Congratulations. :)

Rookie said...

Thanks AK.

AK71 said...

Hi Rookie,

Glad to share. :)

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