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Showing posts with label FCOT. Show all posts
Showing posts with label FCOT. Show all posts

FCOT: Distribution Reinvestment Plan (DRP).

Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Received another DRP offer and this time it is from Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT). This is probably not going to see any take up because the price of $1.2389 per new unit to be allotted is higher than what we could get from Mr. Market now which is $1.235 per unit.


It is probably good to be reminded that the headwinds for REITs could get stronger and if we want to invest in REITs, we have to recognise this. One of these headwinds is an environment of rising interest rates.

So, the DRPs which S-REITs are pushing out now make sense because, if taken up, they will lead to lower gearing levels. The REITs could pay down their debt with the funds as well when they fall due. This is probably a good thing for unit holders too.

To me, it only makes sense to take part in DRPs if we want to increase our long positions in the REITs concerned. However, with rising risk free rates, unit prices of S-REITs will continue to experience downward pressure, everything else remaining equal. So, to me, it doesn't seem very prudent to take part in DRPs at this point in time or in the near future.

I am not against others taking part in the DRPs to strengthen the balance sheets of the S-REITs I am invested in, however. In the meantime, I am quite happy to continue receiving income from these S-REITs and possibly increasing my investments in them only when Mr. Market makes offers too attractive to ignore.

Related posts:
1. Distribution Reinvestment Plan: First REIT and CIT.
2. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: DRP.

3 Trusts in AK71's portfolio and their income distributions.

Thursday, October 24, 2013

I am expected to be quite bogged down by work in the near term and it will probably be a good idea to get more sleep in the meantime. However, reading pages 6 and 7 of The Business Times just now perked me up and I just got to blog about it.

3 Trusts I am invested in have announced their DPU for the last quarter:

The star is AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT which, regular readers would know, is one of my two biggest investments in S-REITs, the other one being Sabana REIT. As per my expectations, the annualised DPU of the REIT is now 11c as it declared a DPU of 2.75c for the quarter ended 30 Sep 13.

There are plans to bump up DPU in the next 2 years through AEIs, acquisitions and by maximising plot ratios. I will temper my optimism because if the REIT should try to lower its gearing, it could do another private placement and this would water down any potential increase in DPU.

Cache Logistics Trust which most analysts seem to favour announced a lower DPU of 2.126c, down 0.8%, year on year. Not a big deal although a bit of growth would have been nice. This is especially when distributable income actually rose 9.6% to $16.5million.

DPU came in lower due to 70 million private placement units in March this year. Regular readers know that I much prefer rights issues to private placements since retail investors like me never get to buy discounted units at private placements.


The third Trust is Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT). It announced a DPU of 2.08c which is some 18.9% higher, year on year. Lower finance costs and lesser payment to holders of its Convertible Perpetual Preferred Units (CPPUs) are what helped to boost DPU.

A rough back of the envelope calculation tells me that the income distributions for the quarter ended 30 Sep 13 from these 3 Trusts will form approximately 7% of my total passive income from S-REITs this year. This will be very useful for my first year end holiday with my family in 5 years. I am looking forward to spending some quality time with my family and taking a longish break from work.

Always good to have positive news to perk us up in life.

Related posts:
1. Cache Logistics Trust: Initiated long position.
2. FCOT: DPU up 16.8% in 18 months.
3. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Making money.

Telcos and REITs are top performers in May.

Tuesday, June 5, 2012

This is taken from an article in The Business Times today:

LMIR's Pluit Village.
The high dividend sectors of telcos and REITs performed the best in May. SGX highlighted the defensive nature of these two sectors in a market update on June 1.

In May, telcos declined 0.43% and REITs dropped 1.73%. The STI fell 7% from 2.979 to 2,773, the largest monthly drop this year.

SGX noted that the top performers year to date are FCOT, gaining 28.4% and AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, gaining 20%.

Industrial buildings belonging to Cache Logistics Trust.

With 70% of my portfolio made up of S-REITs with good fundamentals, I sleep better at night, enjoying rather high yields and receiving regular income distributions.

Related posts:
1. Staying positive on S-REITs.
2. AIMS AMP Capital Industrial Trust: 4Q FY2012.
3. FCOT: DPU up 16.8% in 18 months.


FCOT: DPU up 16.8% in the last 18 months.

Friday, April 20, 2012

I did a piece on FCOT in October 2010 when I said that the REIT has probably turned the corner. At that time, it was trading at 15.5c a unit (which would have been 77.5c a unit, post consolidation). It closed at 87.5c in the last session.

DPU was 0.5549c then (which would have been 2.7745c, post consolidation). FCOT has declared a DPU of 3.2423c for 1H FY12 which means that DPU has increased some 16.8% from 18 months ago. It will go XD on 25 April and income distribution will take place on 30 May.

Annualised, we are looking at a distribution yield of 7.4% at a unit price of 87.5c.

Distributable income increased 7.7% YoY to S$15.9m as a result of lower interest expenses.

Average portfolio occupancy eased marginally to 96.1% from 97.6% seen in 1Q.

Weighted average lease to expiry as at 31 Mar was maintained at 3.4 years, with 17.0% of its leases due to expire in FY12.

NAV/unit: $1.33

Gearing: 36.1%

Interest cover ratio: 3.25x.

Related post:
FCOT: Turning around.

See OCBC Research: here.

See presentation slides: here.

FCOT: Testing supports.

Friday, October 29, 2010

On 22 Oct, when I blogged about FCOT turning around, I suggested that 17c is a formidable resistance and we know that buying at resistance is not a good idea. We want to buy at supports and, strictly speaking, these supports should be confirmed.

"FCOT has probably turned the corner and the numbers speak for themselves. However, would I buy at the current price level? The encouraging numbers could give FCOT's unit price a lift upwards but it is obvious to any chartist that 17c is the immediate resistance. 17c is the top of a base formation and a thrice tested resistance level in mid-January this year....

"From the looks of it, volume seems to be reducing since hitting a high on 24 Sep. In subsequent up days, volume had been lower. So, it could turn out to be a case of "sell on news". Immediate support is at 16c but I see a stronger support to be provided by the 50dMA which coincides with an uptrend line.  That might be a better entry price.  I do not like to chase."

Closing today above the 20dMA at 16c shows that the shorter term uptrend is still intact although price did touch an intra day low of 15.5c.


What are the chances of price declining further? No one can say for sure but it is obvious that upside momentum is somewhat limited with the RSI forming a lower high and the MACD poised to form a bearish crossover with the signal line.

Although the MFI has formed higher lows, which suggest sustained demand, we could see it retreating to retest its uptrend line or 50%.  So, I won't be surprised to see price declining a tad more and/or volume declining further.

With the fundamentals having improved, buying in at 15.5c or 15c seems like a good idea for a possible annualised DPU of 1.24c, assuming that the last quarterly DPU of 0.31c is sustainable.  This would translate to a yield of 8% at the entry price of 15.5c.  Pretty decent.

Related post:
FCOT: Turning around.

FCOT: Turning around.

Friday, October 22, 2010

On 24 Sep, we observed some large volume buy ups, pushing the unit price of FCOT to 15.5c. I asked "Could it go higher in price?" and said, "From a technical perspective, it does look promising.  Volume is, after all, the fuel that drives rallies and today's volume was impressive."

FCOT released its full year results today and they are encouraging, which possibly explained the recent strength of its unit price. Total distributable income increased 78% year on year. 

The marked improvement in its distributable income has been put down to improving NPI and lower finance costs. The strong A$ also made its contribution.

DPU which is what matters to most unitholders is up 55% at 0.31c for the quarter.  This is after paying CPPU holders their due of 5.5%.  

For the full year, DPU is up 29% at 1.12c.  This is higher than my earlier estimate of 1c on 24 Sep when I said "the 3Q DPU was 0.25c. So, the annualised DPU should be about 1c. Based on today's closing price of 15.5c, the yield is 6.45%."  

So, based on the last closing price of 16.5c, the full year DPU of 1.12c represents a yield of 6.79%. (and based on 15.5c when I last did my analysis, the yield is 7.2%).

FCOT would be paying 0.5549c per unit on 29 Nov 10. FCOT's income distribution takes place half yearly.

Have things turned around for FCOT? Is it now a good investment at the current price of 16.5c? Let us look at some numbers:

1. Gearing level is now at 39.6%, lower than the 40.4% a quarter ago.  This is probably because its property portfolio saw an increase of 1.9% in valuation.

2.  NAV per unit is now at 27c due to the positive revaluation of its properties.  If all the CPPUs were converted, NAV would decline to 26c.

3. Interest coverage ratio is down at 2.48x compared to 2.74x a quarter ago.  This is a negative.

If we use FCOT's 4Q performance as a gauge as to how well it might do in the new FY, assuming that its 4Q DPU is sustainable, we would have an annualised DPU of 0.31 x 4 = 1.24c.  Based on the last closing price of 16.5c, that would give a yield of 7.5%.  This is an improvement.

Assuming that all the CPPUs are converted, it would provide FCOT with funds to the tune of $81m.  This is equivalent to about 10% of FCOT's gross borrowing.  This could bring gearing down to 36%.  Assuming that positive asset revaluation continues, gearing level could come down more in time.

However, if all the CPPUs are converted, we should also expect the total number of FCOT units in issue to increase by about 11%. This could water down the DPU of FCOT but it should not have a significant impact since FCOT would also be saving on distributions to CPPU holders at the rate of 5.5% in such a situation.

So, my answer? 

FCOT has probably turned the corner and the numbers speak for themselves. However, would I buy at the current price level? The encouraging numbers could give FCOT's unit price a lift upwards but it is obvious to any chartist that 17c is the immediate resistance. 

17c is the top of a base formation and a thrice tested resistance level in mid-January this year. However, if 17c resistance is taken out, we would have an eventual target of 20.5c.


From the looks of it, volume seems to be reducing since hitting a high on 24 Sep. In subsequent up days, volume had been lower. So, it could turn out to be a case of "sell on news". 

Immediate support is at 16c but I see a stronger support to be provided by the 50dMA which coincides with an uptrend line.  That might be a better entry price.  I do not like to chase.

See presentation slides here.

Related post:
FCOT, CCT and K-REIT.

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Office S-REITs VS Industrial S-REITs.

Sunday, September 26, 2010

An earlier blog post on FCOT, CCT and K-REIT attracted much attention and many comments.  A friend asked me offline if I would invest in any of these REITs.  

Well, I have some pre-historic investments in FCOT and K-REIT while my investment in CCT was divested a few months back.  

Although I am not enthusiastic about office S-REITs, I am aware of what analysts are saying about how office rentals have bottomed in Singapore and that things are looking up.  So, office S-REITs should perform better from now.  The operative word here is "should".


Looking at the numbers, I still very much prefer industrial properties S-REITs and regular readers would know that I favour AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT (AA REIT).  With an XR DPU of 2.08c, its yield is 9.45% at the latest closing price of 22c. XR gearing level is 34.8%.  

With an interest cover ratio of 4.21x (correct as of 22 June 2010), it easily trumps CCT's 3.8x, K-REIT's 3.6x and, of course, FCOT's 2.74x.  

Furthermore, AA REIT's latest acquisition is yield accretive and it has managed to re-finance a S$175m loan due in 2012 at a better interest rate (from 3.5% to 2.16%), reducing interest cost.  So, its interest cover ratio should be higher in the near future.  This is a very promising REIT and I would accumulate on weakness.


A friend asked me about Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT) recently. I remember that its yield is lower and that it has rather high gearing. Looking at its presentation slides of 25 July 2010, MLT's annualised DPU is 6c which means a yield of 6.82% at the latest unit price of 88c.  Gearing is at 38.8%.  Its interest cover ratio is 5.9x!  This probably explains its popularity.

On 28 July 10, I blogged about MLT's purchase of three distribution centres in Japan for a total of JPY13b or S$200m. At that time, I said "with these latest acquisitions, gearing level would be pushed up to 43.6%.  One wonders if Mapletree Log would go to unitholders with hat in hand in the near future or, perhaps, do a share placement."

As per expectation, recently, MLT launched an equity fund raising to raise approximately S$300 million in capital mostly to fund acquisitions in Singapore, Japan and South Korea.  Without the equity fund raising, MLT's gearing would be at 46% which is uncomfortable.  With this exercise, gearing level would be maintained at 38%.

So, what is my take? Although there is consensus that office S-REITs should do better from now, I would stick to industrial S-REITs as the numbers speak for themselves. 

Don't let my opinion stop you from buying into office S-REITs though.  Value is what we get and price is what we pay.  FA can never do the job of TA.  Good luck.

Related posts:
FCOT, CCT and K-REIT.
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Rights issue.
Mapletree Log: Acquires properties in Japan.

FCOT, CCT and K-REIT.

Friday, September 24, 2010

I got a SMS from the blog master of Time to Huat as I was on my way home. FCOT's volume surged as price action formed at nice white candle, closing at 15.5c, overcoming a many times tested resistance at 15c.

Buy signal seen on the MACD histogram, higher low formed on the MFI, OBV spiked and RSI rose into overbought territory. Momentum is positive, demand is strong, accumulation is strong and buying momentum is positive but it could be overdone.

Any reason for the optimism in FCOT? I did not see any announcement by the management which could have resulted in such an upmove in price today. Should we buy some? Could it go higher in price?  From a technical perspective, it does look promising.  Volume is, after all, the fuel that drives rallies and today's volume was impressive.

Let us look at the fundmentals:

FCOT's NAV/unit stands at 26c.  If all the CPPUs were converted, NAV/unit would be 25c. So, at a price of 15.5c, FCOT's units are trading at a 40% discount to NAV.  That's pretty steep.

Gross borrowings as a percentage of total assets (aka the gearing level) is at 40.4%. This is rather high and there is limited room to leverage up for any yield accretive purchases.  However, the 342,500,000 CPPUs have a conversion price of S$0.2369 per unit.  This would bring down its gearing level marginally and give FCOT more capital (S$81.138m) to fund yield accretive purchases in future in case all CPPUs were converted. 

The 3Q DPU was 0.25c. So, the annualised DPU should be about 1c. Based on today's closing price of 15.5c, the yield is 6.45%.  This is not very attractive if we were to compare to what we could get from AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT, for example.  Of course, these two REITs are in different real estate sectors.  Let us compare FCOT with CCT and K-REIT instead. 


CCT closed at $1.47 today. NAV as of 30 Jun 10 at $1.36. CCT is trading at a 8% premium to NAV. Gearing ratio is at 32.8%.  Plenty of room to leverage up for further yield accretive purchases. 1H DPU was 3.9c.  So, the annualised DPU should be about 7.8c.  This means a yield of 5.3% based on today's closing price. The yield might be lower than FCOT's but CCT has a much stronger balance sheet.

K-REIT closed at $1.31 today. NAV as of Jun 10 at $1.47. K-REIT is trading at an 11% discount to NAV. Gearing ratio is at 15.2%.  This is very attractive to me as it gives the REIT plenty of room to leverage up for potential yield accretive purchases. 1Q 2010 DPU at 1.33c.  Annualised DPU should be 5.32c which means a yield of only 4% based on the current price of $1.31.  K-REIT has, arguably, the strongest balance sheet amongst the three office property REITs discussed here.  The low yield might put off investors but its low gearing paves the way for future acquisitions which could bump up its DPU.

I have told my friends before that for me to buy more units in FCOT, it has to offer me a much higher yield. The much higher gearing and lower quality assets compared to CCT and K-REIT are justifications. There is also greater safety in CCT and K-REIT as their interest coverage ratio (ratio of year‐to‐date earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation to interest expense) are at 3.8x and 3.6x respectively while FCOT's ratio is at 2.74x.  There is little doubt that FCOT's fundamentals are the weakest of the three. So, naturally, a higher yield is necessary to compensate for higher risk.

See FCOT's presentation slides here.
See CCT's presentation slides here.
See K-REIT's presentation slides here.

High yields: Successes, failures and the in betweens.

Monday, March 1, 2010

In this post, I shall share some personal experience with high yielding trusts and provide some numbers in the process for the purpose of illustration.

High yielding trusts which have done very well for me are those which meet the selection criteria I have talked about so many times before for REITs.  Investing in such trusts is mainly about generating a steady passive income (cash flow) and to do this well, we have to look for low gearing, high yield and attractive discount to NAVs. These factors will ensure that the trusts' distributions are meaningful and sustainable.  Here are some which have done well for me:

First REIT:  I first bought some in 2007.  It had low gearing, high yield but did not have a great discount to NAV.  My initial purchase price was in the mid 70c.  The dpu was about 6c per annum.  As prices slumped during this last crisis, I bough more at 42c.  The dpu has risen to almost 8c per annum in the meantime.  First REIT didn't have to issue any rights or do any share placements as its gearing was relatively low and still is.  The unit price of the REIT now is 82c thereabouts.

LMIR:  I first bought some in 2007, not during the IPO at 80c, but after the price dropped to 70c days after.  It had low gearing, an attractive yield and trading at a discount to NAV.  During the last crisis, I bought more and the lowest price I bought more at was 18c.  The dpu is now almost 5c per annum.  It didn't have to issue any rights or do any share placements as its gearing was very low and still is.  The current unit price is about 48c or so.

Suntec REIT:  I always wanted some Suntec REIT units but looked on in amazement as the price hit $2.00 at one stage.  I bought some at $1.03 during the downtrend.  It went on in the coming months to make a new low at 50c or so, if I remember correctly.  As the price recovered, I bought more at an average price of $1.00 or so.  NAV per unit was almost $2.00. So, the discount to NAV was very attractive. The dpu is about 10c and provides a handsome 10% yield for me.  Gearing level is not very low though. 

Hyflux Water Trust:  A business trust, not a REIT.  This is an investment which many of my friends remember because I was talking about it a lot early last year.  They listened politely mostly.  I was always interested in this trust as it has regular cash flow through its exposure to the water sector in China.  In January 2009, I looked at it again in greater detail as the price was so low.  I found the yield to be almost 20% then.  Gearing was non-existent and it was trading at a very nice discount to NAV.  The unit price was 30c or so at that time.  I went on a buying spree.

I did not keep all of these investments bought at low prices. I sold most of them for very nice capital gains, cycling the funds into laggard counters like Healthway Medical to make more money.  I kept, on average, 10% of my original positions in each of these investments to collect passive income in perpetuity.  It would have been nice if I had been able to keep my investments in these trusts in full and yet have more money to invest in laggard counters but, unfortunately, my resources are limited.

As you could probably tell, I was not always rigorous in making sure that all three criteria I talked about were met in choosing a trust.  In part, such trusts did not present themselves all the time and I had to make do with the best choices available.  This last crisis, however, was an opportunity of a lifetime.

It was also because I was not rigorous that in my early years with trusts, I made many mistakes in my choices. What we must always remember is not to focus solely on yields.  Also, do not invest in anything without doing our own FA. Here were some of my mistakes:

MPSF: It just got suspended today. This must have been my worst mistake. I listened to a very young "analyst" who said it gave upwards of 10% in yield and that the yield was sustainable. I invested a five figure sum without doing any analysis of my own. I later found out that MPSF invests in other REITs in Australia and as some of these REITs are private in nature, they could gear up to 80%! MSPF froze all distributions with the credit crisis but what is worse is the complicated situation it is in with so many cans of worms. There is no passive income for unitholders and, as far as I can see, there is no clarity as to its future. Must remember not to be swayed by sweet talking analysts. Always do our own homework.

FSL Trust: A friend introduced me to shipping trusts saying that I should diversify my passive income stream. He also introduced me to Rickmers and PST but I only have a position in FSL Trust. I still get passive income from the cash flow generated by its business and I receive  >8% yield per year based on my average price. High gearing in excess of 100% and the fact that its assets depreciate whether or not the economy does well make this a mistake for me.

CitySpring: This is a business trust. I was emboldened by the fact that this has the backing of Temasek Holdings. It had very high gearing but the management (headed by Sunny Verghese) said that they did not have to issue rights and people who thought they had to didn't understand their business. A few months later, they issued rights. The yield plunged and unitholders became poorer as they subscribed to the rights. It yields an average of 6.5% per annum for me.

There are a few others but the essence of the negative experience is more or less the same. For examples, with FCOT (previously Allco REIT) and MI-REIT (now AMPS AMP Capital Industrial REIT), I overlooked their high gearing levels at the time of purchase.  This is also a reason why I tell people to be cautious with Cambridge Industrial Trust (CIT) which I am vested in as well as its gearing is still in excess of 40%.

As creating a significant stream of passive income is still a very important objective for me, trusts with high yields must still play a part in the grand scheme of things. Rather than remember the pain and avoid these trusts altogether, I choose to remember the pain and find a way to achieve mastery over them. I hope that by freely sharing what I have realised to be the right way to approach REITs (and other forms of trusts) here in my blog, other investors who might not be in the know would not have to suffer like I did.


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