Posts
Saizen REIT closed at 15.5c today. I might get my wish next week to buy more at this price. If I am lucky, I might even get to buy more at the 100dMA. This coincides with a longer term 38.2% Fibo line and is likely to be a strong support. That's at 15c.
Saizen REIT will be presenting its results on 11 Feb, just before the Chinese New Year. That gels with my chart reading on a probable breakout timing on the upside. A narrowing of the Bollinger bands gives some credence to this reading as well. Initial breakout targets remain at 19c and 21c for now.
Bloggy Award
5 comments:
Hi!
From the chart, MACD, MFI and OBV seems downward trend coupled with the candle sticks floating to the lower of Bollinger Band, how do you determine on a probable breakout timing for Saizen Reit?
Would you mind sharing your thots? =)
Would you mind clearing my
Hi Zac,
We have to remember that the MACD is usually a lagging indicator. We cannot use it to look ahead. It is used usually as a confirmation.
The MFI is a momentum oscillator. Actually, the decline has not broken the uptrend in the momentum. If you draw a straight line from the oversold zone on 23 Dec and connect the next higher low, you will see that, currently, the MFI is still above this line. If the MFI remains at 50% or so, you will see that it will hit this line sometime after 8 Feb. Will it bounce off the line? There is a good chance, I feel.
As for the OBV, if we compare to 16 April 09 when accumulation picked up more or less after bottoming, we are still pretty much positive.
I also drew 2 other lines which are not in this chart. One is a resistance line connecting the highs of 26 Aug and 18 Nov. The other is a support line connecting the lows of 18 May and 9 Nov. What we get looks like a symmetrical triangle. This was before the price broke out on 5 Jan.
I was expecting the price to break out closer to Chinese New Year, closer to the apex of the triangle. I guess I underestimated the Capricorn effect. Well, the decline in price in recent sessions show that the breakout might have been premature, driven by sentiments.
Come 11 Feb, Saizen REIT's report should give us a firmer footing and we expect continuing positive newsflow. That would most likely give Saizen REIT a lift.
Remember, we are gazing into a crystal ball. Let's see if we get it right.
Has this elaboration helped?
hi, just to confirm: exercise price for saizen warrant is 9cents? didn't look thru previous announcements
koori
Hi Koori,
Yes, 9c is correct. You are thinking of buying Saizen warrants too? The recent weakness does present an opportunity. :)
Thanks very much for the above detailed explanation!
Post a Comment