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Just last evening, I said "Connecting the highs of 3 and 17 January gives us a trendline resistance. We could see $2.00 tested next if the bouyant price action follows through. It also remains to be seen if $1.93 is resistance turned support. I am monitoring this counter as I get ready to divest some." My sell queue for CMA was filled today at $2.00 as price went on to touch a high of $2.02 before closing at $2.00, right smack on resistance. Volume also expanded nicely.
The fact that price closed at $2.00 after touching a high of $2.02 hints at some selling pressure above $2.00. Next resistance levels are at $2.04, as provided by the 100dMA, and $2.08, as provided by the 200dMA. Could we see these levels tested in the next couple of sessions?
The 20dMA continues to rise and seems on track to forming a golden cross with the 50dMA. The MACD has risen into positive territory, heralding the return of positive momentum in the meantime. OBV keeps rising, suggesting more accumulation. RSI is rising after testing 50% as support several times, suggesting that there is support for the positive price action.
However, look at the MFI and this hints of something slightly ominous. It has been forming lower highs and even broke the trendline support. It is telling us to be cautious. This forms a negative divergence with the recent rising price. So, it is likely that this current strength we are seeing could peter out.
Let's zoom out and look at a longer term daily chart. If we connect the highs of 11 Dec 09 and 6 Oct 10, it is easy to see that the longer term downtrend is still intact. Where is this trendline resistance now? $2.14. This does not mean that price would hit $2.14 anytime soon, does it? As price would climb a wall of worries usually, $2.04 and $2.08 could be rather strong resistance levels. Over time, the longer term trendline resistance would not be at $2.14 anymore and would be lower. So, what would I do? Selling at resistance in a downtrend is what I would do.
I was asked why I am not holding for the long term if I think the fundamentals are strong. Well, fundamentals are different from sentiments. Let us look at the weekly chart which is sufficiently long term for me. It becomes clear why price hit $2.02 and retreated today. $2.02 is where we find the declining 20wMA. If this resistance were cleared, we could see price touching a high of $2.10 which is where we find the declining 50wMA. We have 3 more sessions in the week to see if this would happen.
In the longer term, the MFI and RSI have both risen out of their oversold regions and are forming higher highs. The MACD is making a bullish crossover with the signal line although in negative territory which suggests that given a longer time frame, this could just be another rebound in a downtrend. Watch those resistance levels identified.
What about buying? Would I buy more? $1.83 is a twice tested support and should be strong if retested. This counter might see some volatility yet but it could have possibly found a floor, if not the bottom.
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