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Largest investments: When to worry? What to do?

Saturday, October 8, 2022

I have published a series of blogs in recent years which listed my largest investments and sometimes shared the reasons for me investing in those assets.

This blog is going to talk about those largest investments in my portfolio but it will have a little twist.

I have always said that as an investor for income, the most important thing we want to see from our investments is the ability to generate income sustainably and a willingness to share that income generated with us.

I produced a YouTube video to talk about this and for those who are not subscribed to my YouTube channel, this is the video:





There are people who are worried about capital loss and that passive income generated from our investments is unable to cover the capital loss.

They might find it odd why AK is not concerned about this?

Well, to me, capital loss when it is on paper isn't at all damaging unless we are using money that we shouldn't be using to invest with.

Recall what Warren Buffett said about tide going out and we see who has been swimming naked.

Two groups of people should be very worried about capital loss on paper.

1. People who are using leverage might get hit by margin calls as the market value of their investments decline.

2. People who are using money they need for other purposes in the next few months or years as they might have to liquidate at a loss.

If we are not in the same situation as these people, I don't see any good reason to worry.

We just have to make sure that what we are invested in are bona fide income generating assets and that they will still be generating income for us for a long, long time to come.

What to avoid?

Remember, no one cares more about our money than we do and if it sounds too good to be true, it could well be.





Now, for the twist.

This is not something I think is meaningful but it might be fun reading for some people in a perverse way and it could also make some people feel better.

How so?

They are not the only ones losing money (on paper.)

OK, here goes.

$500,000 or more

CPF

When equities do badly, we appreciate the CPF a lot more.

CPF might generate "only" 2.5% to 5% per annum in return for us but we won't ever suffer any capital loss.

Of course, the Singapore Savings Bond is now a good alternative to CPF as interest rate has risen significantly and I blogged about this recently.

There is always a place for such risk free and volatility free alternatives in our portfolios as they could also outperform during bear markets.




$350,000 to $499,999

AIMS APAC REIT
IREIT Global
OCBC

AIMS APAC REIT is an example of how staying invested in bona fide income generating assets through ups and downs in the stock market can only be a good idea.

My investment in AIMS APAC REIT is free of cost for some time now, still generating regular income and also very much in the black.

IREIT Global which has a shorter history, on the other hand, is very much in the red.

However, I do not see anything wrong with the fundamentals and, if anything, at the current price, the REIT offers even better value for money.

I expect IREIT Global to continue generating meaningful income for me and I will stay invested.




OCBC became my largest investment in the local banking sector a few months ago as I averaged up.

Although I averaged up, my investment in OCBC is still very much in the black.

Just like DBS and UOB, OCBC is a reliable income generator which is my primary consideration as an investor for income.

$200,000 to $349,999

ComfortDelgro
DBS
UOB
Wilmar International

ComfortDelgro joins IREIT Global as an investment that is suffering a paper loss in my portfolio since most of the investment was made between $1.90 to $2.00 a share a few years ago.

However, ComfortDelgro is more likely than not going to continue generating an income for me as long as we are not hit by another disaster as damaging as the COVID-19 pandemic.

There is no reason not to stay invested especially when I expect things to improve.





My investments in DBS and UOB, just like my investment in OCBC, are very much in the black.

Whatever I said about OCBC would apply to DBS and UOB as well.

My investment in Wilmar is also in the black (for now.)

Wilmar has shown itself to be a reliable income generator over the years but, to be honest, I am staying invested in Wilmar also because I think it is extremely undervalued.

So, there is a bit of an asset play angle.

$100,000 to $199,999

Sabana REIT
Capitaland China Trust
Frasers Logistics Trust

My investment in Sabana REIT is very much in the black as most of the investment was made when the low ball offer by ESR REIT was rejected.

Sabana REIT is undervalued and because their assets are all in Singapore, there is no worry about foreign exchange issues unlike IREIT Global.

My investment in Capitaland China Trust is, however, in the red but just not as red as IREIT Global.

My investment in Frasers Logistics Trust is very much in the black just like my investment in AIMS APAC REIT but it isn't free of cost yet.

I expect Sabana REIT, Capitaland China Trust and Frasers Logistics Trust to continue to generate income for me.

In fact, I do not see any of my largest investments not generating income for me at least in the next few years.

Three of my largest investments are trading at below my average prices but that doesn't bother me as long as they do the job I expect them to do.

On a portfolio level, I am not doing too badly.

Yes, don't put all our eggs in one basket.





When would I be worried?

As an investor for income, I think about whether my investments are able to generate the income I expect from them.

So, if an asset should give me good reason to think that it is unable to reliably generate an income for me, I would worry.

Don't be too optimistic.

Have a meaningful percentage of our portfolio in fixed income.

Don't be too pessimistic.

Stay invested in equities that will likely deliver better returns than fixed income in the long run.

Be pragmatic.

There are worse situations to be in than being paid regularly while we wait for things to improve.

I hope everyone feels better after reading this blog but of course this is rather unlikely.

How are you feeling after reading this blog?




Recently published:
1. CPF or SSB? No brainer.
2. 3Q 2022 passive income.

References:
1. Worried as dividends and interest income reduced.
2. Largest investments (2Q 2022.)




13 comments:

garudadri said...

Dear AK
Nice to see this and thanks for your candid view sharing here
I agree with your observations on disregarding capital loss “on paper”. A similar ideology prevails in the Lemonfool UK investing group that has a section for dividend investors. I moved over from the UK nearly 9 years ago and my UK portfolio is dividend focused, but unfortunately suffered badly and continues to do so although better, even now after BREXIT, COVID AETC
My SG portfolio has exactly all your top holdings and the only two things that I have acted on was to sell CDG and Singtel reducing my holdings by 60%
I crystallized that loss and am deploying it in the “good” SG REITS adding to my positions in AREIT, CICT, CLCT, FLCT, FCT, AIMSAPAC, KEPPEL REIT and Keppel infra. This will definitely work better for me as this market depression plus rate fears have caused SG REITS to fall significantly
I will be adding to banks regularly as a hedge to REITS and will add more Wilmer and ST England as well
Let us see
Regards
Garudadri

AK71 said...

Hi Garudadri,

Good to see that you have a plan. :D

All of us should have a plan that we are comfortable with instead of riding on others' coattails.

If an investment no longer works for us, reducing exposure is a sensible thing to do.

I did that too with Centurion Corporation.

Have to roll with the punches and move on.

Know what we need and we will know where we should park our money. :)

With more rate hikes likely, there will be opportunities aplenty to add to our investments.

I am also quite happy to see fixed income becoming viable again for us income investors after what felt like eons. :D

Reference:
Reallocate as interest rate rises.

Yv said...

Dear AK

Thank you for your sharing. I have recently nibbled on a couple of REITS and Bank shares. Given the market volatility, I also see a small paper loss, but like you said, I'm not too worried as I have only used a small portion of my excess cash after setting aside emergency cash buffer.

Will continue to nibble slowly at other investments at good prices so I won't kancheong and panic, and be able to sleep soundly at night.

garudadri said...

Thanks AK
I started a small position in Centurion a few months ago at 38c. I will be adding more with the correction soon as the yield is quite good and overall, in the absence of another black swan event, will give me sustainable income
Regards
Garudadri

AK71 said...

Hi Yv,

Moving in the right direction. :D

Investing for income is not about getting rich quick.

It is about building a portfolio of income generating assets that will pay us regularly year after year.

Very happy that you have a plan and executing it.

Gambatte! :D

AK71 said...

Hi Garudadri,

I still retain a smallish position in Centurion after a reallocation of resources.

Centurion's management was fast to suspend dividends for 2 years which, to be fair, had to be done because of their weak balance sheet in the face of economic uncertainties.

Of course, unlike REITs, there is also a lack of incentive for Centurion to pay dividends.

Are we going to face economic uncertainties again in the near future with the rapid rate hikes we are seeing?

I am not sure if I want to live through another period when one of my largest investments suspend dividends.

This is a big reason why I am unlikely to grow my legacy position in Centurion.

Good luck to us all. :)

Mei said...

Hi AK

Thanks for your sharing. Do u have any stake in ST Eng? The dividend yield is now at 4.45%. Would it be worthwhile to take a look at this stock?

Regards
Mei

Rae said...

Hello AK.

Mind talking to yourself about st engineering?
Thanks alot.

AK71 said...

Hi Mei and Rae,

Both of you asked about ST Engineering in the same hour. :D

Is this a sign that many more are interested in ST Engineering now?

I have been invested in ST Engineering for donkey years.

It is a rock solid business.

ST Engineering pays out 90% to 100% of its earnings as dividends to shareholders, if I remember correctly, which was a big reason why I invested in it so many years ago.

However, if we are looking for growth as well, then, ST Engineering isn't a very good fit.

For a business that pays out all its earnings as dividends, a dividend yield of 4.45% would be considered somewhat low compared to the banks which give a similar yield but pay out around 50% of their earnings.

Of course, we can argue that ST Engineering is defensive while the business of banking is more cyclical in nature.

So, whether ST Engineering is worth taking a look or not depends on what you are looking to achieve.

Reference:
The mystical art of wealth accumulation.

AK71 said...

Hi EX,

I am just too lazy to go into too much detail and, yes, there is also the fact that I don't want people to benchmark their purchase prices against mine.

Price which makes sense to me might not make sense to you based on what we feel is the value of the asset which is the way it should be.

This is why I share my portfolio in large bands of market values instead of sharing specific share prices and percentages.

My back of the envelope approach just gives everyone, including myself, a rough idea and I just realized that I made a mistake in this blog as I copied and pasted my largest holdings from my blog on 2Q 2022 largest holdings.

The market value of my investment in ComfortDelgro has actually dropped below $200,000 because its stock price declined again pretty substantially from the final week of September.

Anyway, I will say that, off the top of my head, I am down about 30% for ComfortDelgro, about 30% for IREIT Global and about 15% for CLCT.

Of course, if we take into consideration the dividends received over the years, then, it isn't that bad.

The rest of my largest investments are doing fine when it comes to market value (for now.)

Gambatte! :D

Reference:
Are we right 6 times out of 10?

Betta man said...

APTT dipped below $0.01 on 11 Oct, indicating a yield of 10%. Is it undervalued at this price ?

AK71 said...

Hi Betta man,

The last time I blogged about APTT was two and a half years ago.

I haven't been looking at APTT although I still have a very tiny legacy position.

Not really interested as there are other more interesting things I like.

I think that many things I shared in my last blog on APTT are still relevant considerations today.

So, if you are interested, the blog is referenced below.

Reference:
APTT: 1 for 4 rights issue.

AK71 said...

Hi EX,

For many years now, I have hesitated to talk about such things in specifics.

We are all different in so many ways and should do things differently.

So, I just talk about things in general which is pretty safe and it is up to readers to work out the specifics for themselves.

Well, if I must share some specifics, the easiest for me to be specific about is the CPF and I have said for a long time that we should max out the benefits of our CPF membership.

However, with rising interest rates, the SSB has become a viable alternative to the CPF which is why I would put money into SSBs instead of my CPF account now.

See:
CPF or SSB?

Having a meaningful percentage of our portfolio in risk free, volatility free fixed income instruments is always a good thing (and many are more aware of this now that interest rates are rising and equities are crashing.)

This percentage should increase as we age because we should not be too adventurous as we close in on retirement or are in retirement.

Anyway, what I have earmarked for voluntary contribution to my CPF account would go to SSBs now to grow the proportion of risk free, volatility free bond component in my portfolio.

As for equities, if I had limited funds, I would pick the one idea I have the greatest conviction in and that is where all my money would go.

Actually, I have been penning my thoughts on things related to what I have said here.

I will publish the blogs when they are ready.

Look out for them. :)


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