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I last did an update on my largest investments in early April.
Since then, there have been quite a few changes.
I have reduced my investment in Centurion Corporation since that update.
and
I have used some of the funds raised to increase my investment in OCBC even as Mr. Market sinks into depression, making it my largest investment in the local banking sector.
I have also increased my investment in Capitaland China Trust and Frasers Logistics Trust so that they join the list of largest investments in my portfolio.
The current list of largest investments in my portfolio looks like this:
$500,000 or more:
CPF
CPF
In a bear market, especially a fierce or prolonged one, having a meaningful amount of CPF savings for those of us fortunate enough to be CPF members gives peace of mind.
The CPF is not only risk free and volatility free, it pays fairly good coupons too.
Long time readers of my blog might remember one year when I said my CPF savings outperformed the stock market.
See:
$350,000 to $499,000:
AIMS APAC REIT
IREIT Global
OCBC
My investment in OCBC is larger now than when I last blogged about it.
See:
$200,000 to $349,000:
ComfortDelgro
ComfortDelgro
DBS
UOB
Wilmar International
In this category, I added to my investments in ComfortDelgro and Wilmar International.
See:
$100,000 to $199,999:
Sabana REIT
Capitaland China Trust
Frasers Logistics Trust
Sabana REIT is happier to be in this category now because it is lonely no more.
See:
I have hyperlinked the latest relevant past blogs.
So, if you want to find out why I did what I did, please read those blogs.
I believe that these largest positions in my portfolio will continue to generate good income for me even when Mr. Market is suffering a depression.
Passive income for 2Q 2022 is looking pretty good right now and I will share the results once all the numbers for June are in.
I should be publishing the blog in early July, if nothing unexpected happens.
Too much activity recently and I look forward to being relative inactive in the not too distant future.
However, Mr. Market's depression could become worse and since I am cheap, I probably would not be able to resist buying more stuff on the cheap.
Perhaps, it has something to do with the word "cheap" because suddenly I think of baby chickens.
Unless we are highly leveraged, don't panic and do a Chicken Little.
Don't be held hostage by Mr. Market's depression and remember to live life as we normally would.
As long as we are invested in bona fide income producing assets which have the ability and will to reward us, the sky is not falling.
What if we are highly leveraged?
Well, you tell me.
This ends the update.
Related post:
Largest investments (1Q 2022.)
Largest investments (1Q 2022.)
Bloggy Award
54 comments:
AK not interested in US, HKSE stocks?
Hi Desmond,
Oh, you might have missed these blogs:
1. Is Nio the new Tesla?
2. Buying more Chinese tech stocks today.
Tiny exposure.
If I had many millions of dollars, I might have to look elsewhere for more opportunities but I don't. (TmT)
Anyway, as an investor for income, there are plenty of options in Singapore to keep me pretty satisfied. :)
Dear AK, with markets in bear territory, would you wait till the dust have settled before deploying more of your war chest?
Hi KC,
Unlike the COVID-19 pandemic induced bear market when we saw fear and panic on a global scale which led to global stock markets to melt down rapidly, recover somewhat and then moved sideways for many months, this time, I feel there could be a greater differentiation between stock markets.
The US stock market, especially the tech heavy NASDAQ has been melting down dramatically because the valuations were crazy high and the situation was driven by more than ample liquidity which is now drying up and will continue to dry up if the FED continues to increase interest rate and do quantitative tightening.
Stock markets which do not have such excess and I think Singapore's market is one such example should not suffer a stellar meltdown and, broadly speaking, I don't think we will although we could continue to see prices softening.
The Hang Seng Tech Index, another example, could have already bottomed because the stock prices went into a tailspin many months ago and with China trying to stimulate its economy, it is doing the opposite of what the FED is doing.
So, I am generally sanguine about some counters like OCBC, for example, also because technically, I see a positive divergence in the making (i.e. as the RSI approaches oversold region, the MACD which measures price movement and volume seems to forming a higher low.)
This is a sign that downside, if any, could be limited.
So, the dust could already be settling for some.
Of course, Mr. Market is sometimes perverse which is why it is still a good idea to keep some powder dry. :)
Thanks for your thoughts AK.
Hi KC,
Just me being mental and talking to myself again, of course. ;p
Hi AK,
Just want to thank you for the multiple posts the past 1-2 months. Really appreciate you taking the time to share generously here on the journey of financial independence. This post is again my Din xin wan (heart calming pill, not Beethoven anymore haha) now. Stay healthy and safe!
Dear AK
Nice to read this and look forward to your end of Q2 figures
I have her buying FLCT and will add more very soon
Their Australia expansion plans are credible but the interest rates trend are getting tougher with the RBA hiking aggressively
In fact, I am watching the Aussie banks that are great dividend payers and will add to my long term existing holdings if prices fall further with enticing yields north of 6%
However, they are basically long term
MIT is also only radar and hoping to add under 2.40 or around that
The SG banks are still attractive and I bought some last week and waiting for another dip lower to buy more of the three
Regards
Garudadri
Hi AK, have you taken another look at Cromwell REIT? Price has gone down below IPO price, and consequently it's yield.
Has the price gone low enough for you to consider or are the assets quality still bothering you?
Hope to hear your thoughts on this.
Hi Winnie,
I am glad that talking to myself has not helped only my own mental condition. LOL. ;p
Gambatte! :)
Hi Garudadri,
Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
Good to see that you are staying calm and sticking to your plan. :)
Hi Keng,
I already have a very substantial investment in IREIT Global which gives me exposure to Europe.
I also like IREIT Global more than Cromwell REIT for many reasons.
At the moment, there isn't a compelling reason for me to invest in Cromwell REIT.
OK, I am just lazy and don't want to have another counter to monitor. ;p
Hi Keng,
You might want to do a quick comparison of their financial ratios:
http://ireitglobal.listedcompany.com/financial_ratios.html
https://investor.cromwelleuropeanreit.com.sg/financial_ratios.html
Could be something to consider, if you have not looked that way before.
Thanks for your kind comments!
Hope you dont spend too much time shopping for stocks and focus more time on your MMORPG :P
Hi AK,
Did u mean u sold away your Centurion? Or left it untouched?
Hi Keng,
Oh, for sure, the fun stuff comes first.
Always. ;p
Hi garyp,
I am still invested in Centurion Corp.
It just isn't one of my largest investments anymore.
hi AK, on IREIT, was wondering if exchange rate risk is going to be significant moving forward.
I had Elite Commercial, priced in GBP. GBP had depreciated 10% against SGD compared to 1 year ago.
Similarly, Euro had depreciated 9% against SGD, compared to 1 year ago.
SGD will be strong, as our MAS wants strong SGD to fight inflation. USD will be strong, as US Fed is rising interest rate rapidly. Euro interest rate is around 0%; hence Euro faces downward presure as US and other countries increase interest rate.
Hi ThinkNotLeft,
Yes, unfortunately, this isn't something we can control.
As long as we are invested in REITs which have some or all income from outside of Singapore, exchange rate risk is something we would have to live with.
This is like the tide, sometimes higher and sometimes lower.
Do we want to have a Singapore centric portfolio and not worry about this risk but worry about concentration risk instead?
Another question, do we want a strong Singapore Dollar or a weak one?
I am inclined to believe that somewhere in the middle is where we realistically should be.
We cannot take only the good and none of the bad.
Things don't always go our way but if we invest in some bona fide income producing assets that will pay us fairly, we should do better than most.
Hi AK,
Some positive news on IReit Global. 👍🏼 “)
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/ireits-sant-cugat-green-bags-new-12-year-lease-for-204-of-propertys-total-lettable
Hi Eddy,
Thanks for sharing this.
Huat ah! :D
IREIT Global announced on 21 June that it has secured a 12-year lease for about 5,300 square metres of data centre space at its Sant Cugat Green asset in Barcelona.
The tenant is a joint venture between 2 Spanish information technology companies.
The lease represents about 20% of the asset’s total lettable area.
The initial annual rent is approximately EUR0.7 million, and it features an annual rent escalation that allows for a 3% margin above Spain’s consumer price index.
The total lease duration includes a two-year renovation phase that began on 20 June and is rent-free, as well as a break option at the end of the eighth year on 19 June 2030.
“Since 2016, the data centre space has not been leased out and is considered as structurally vacant”, explained Louis d’Estienne d’Orves, CEO of the REIT’s manager.
“However, we have managed to fill up the entire space in approximately two years after we first acquired a stake in the property towards the end of December 2019 – a great achievement considering the challenging operating environment caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, rising inflation, and geopolitical tension in Europe”, he added.
Taking the new lease into account, the occupancy rate of Sant Cugat Green would improve from 77.1% as at 31 March 2022 to 97.2% on a pro forma basis.
Meanwhile, its weighted average lease expiry (WALE) would improve from 3.6 years as at 31 March 2022 to 5.0 years.
A total capital expenditure of approximately EUR7.8 million has been agreed to upgrade the power supply requirements, air conditioning and fire protection of the data centre, with IREIT contributing EUR5.4 million and the tenant contributing the remaining EUR2.4 million.
This upgrading works will bring the data centre to a tier 3 rating, which enhances the uptime performance, valuation and future leasing potential of the data centre space at Sant Cugat Green, the REIT added.
IREIT Global was last done on the Singapore Exchange at SGD0.62, which presently implies a distribution yield of 7.10%
Hi AK,
With the depreciating Yen against SGD, Daiwa House Log Trust has been on a decline. Do you see value at the current price? Interested to hear your thoughts.
Hi AT,
We just had a little discussion on DHLT.
You will find it in the comments section of this blog:
Daiwa House Logistics Trust: Good or not?
Talking to myself as usual. ;)
Hi AK,
Thanks for your fast response. :D
You did mentioned that "...Having said this, if Daiwa House Logistics Trust should see a significant decline in unit price, I might buy some."
I'm assuming that the current price of $0.65 is not significant enough yet.
Hi AT,
Daiwa House Logistics Trust's decline in unit price is pretty significant.
I would have bought some at 65c or even 66c if the big decline was purely due to Mr. Market's depression.
The distribution yield would have expanded which would have made the Trust a more attractive investment.
If we simply look at the unit price, it seems like we are getting a better deal now but the underlying value has not changed because the unit price is tracking the decline in the Yen which would affect the NAV and, ultimately, the DPU.
Of course, we can speculate on the direction of the Yen and whether it could appreciate in the near future but I am less inclined to do so these days.
I also have other concerns regarding the Trust and it isn't that attractive to me, all else being equal.
Hi AK, with interest rates rising, do you think now is still a good time to enter aims amp reit n IREIT at the current price?
Hi SL,
I already have pretty large positions in these REITs and, so, unless their unit prices decline significantly from here, all else being equal, I won't be adding.
Hi Ak71,
Can share what other concerns you have regarding Daiwa?
Hi AK,
Those that could be shared openly, I already blogged about in:
Daiaw House Logistics Trust: Good or not?
Some things, unfortunately, I cannot share publicly.
Hi AK,
Thank you for the sharing.
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/aims-investment-group-makes-1-185956523.html
AIMS Investment Group makes A$1.25 cash offer to AIMS Property Securities.
Best Regards
David
Hi AK,
Thanks for your previous posting on Daiwa Logistic Trust.
I learnt a good lesson.
After the fall of Japanese Yen.
The share price fall to ~66c now.
Would like to seek your advice if this is a bargain buy now?
Thank you
David
Hi AK,
Just to update, i heard/read that Daiwa Logistic earning in Japanese YEN for 2022 has been 'Hedged'against SGD.
If i am right, Even though YEN has dropped alot against SGD, bank/financial institute that Daiwa 'created' the Hedge position will ensure they still receive the Earning $ BEFORE the fall of YEN.
Best Regards
David
Hi David,
Thanks for all the updates.
The proposed transaction between AIMS Investment Group and AIMS Property Securities won't have any impact on AIMS APAC REIT now but it is hard to say if the assets might be offered to the REIT in future.
As for Daiwa House Logistics Trust, we did have a discussion in the comments section in my earlier blog on the Trust.
Unless the Japanese Yen recovers, future DPU and NAV will be lower in S$ terms.
The Japanese government can keep the cap on bond yields relatively low for a longer time which would keep the Yen depressed as much of Japanese bonds is domestically held.
The Japanese economy isn't doing very well and thus the inclination of BOJ to keep interest rate lower for longer.
Of course, things could change.
Reference:
Daiwa House Logistics Trust.
Thanks, AK.
I mistaken that George will privatise AIMS APAC REIT at AUD1.25....
Thanks for the updates on Daiwa Logistic Trust.
Currency risk is Real.
Even Elite Commerical Trust also go down..
Best Regards
David
Hi David,
If you read my blog on Daiwa House Logistics Trust, one of my concerns was with the mostly leasehold nature of its portfolio.
With average land lease at 38 years, it reminds me of an industrial REIT with mostly assets in Singapore.
One important reason for investing in an industrial REIT with overseas properties is to have access to a portfolio of freehold assets and we see many industrial REITs in Singapore acquiring assets overseas to increase the proportion of freehold assets in their portfolio.
I didn't say it explicitly in my blog on Daiwa House Logistics Trust but we might as well be investing in Sabana REIT which has a higher distribution yield and we wouldn't have to worry about foreign exchange risk either. ;p
Sabana REIT's unit price has held up better compared to Daiwa House Logistics Trust's. :)
I said in my blog that Daiwa House Logistics Trust's IPO was priced too dearly and I still think so.
Hi AK,
Good Day.
Appreciate all your comments:-)
Got your point-Industrial/REITS who have Longer Lease or Freehold properties in Oversea.
Daiwa Logistic Trust properties are mostly NOT.
True, Sabana REIT trades ~41-45c in past 1yr+.Boring, but Stable.
Its 'good' that it fenced off ESR acquisition.
Thank you
David
Hi David,
Just talking to myself, as usual. ;p
It is also worth noting that Mr. Market would often apply an overseas assets discount and this could affect the valuations of S-REITs holding such assets.
So, demanding a higher distribution yield from such S-REITs like Mr. Market often does seems prudent to me. :)
IREIT Global
• 1H2022 distributable income rose by 20.4% year-on-year on the back of acquisitions
• Weighted average lease expiry improved to 4.7 years as at 30 June 2022 from 3.7 years a
quarter ago due to lease renewals and new leases secured in 2Q2022
• Portfolio valuation surpassed the €1.0 billion mark as at 30 June 2022, contributing to an
improved aggregate leverage of 30.8% compared to 32.1% in prior quarter
Based on the closing unit price of S$0.61 as at 30 June 2022, IREIT is trading at 26.5%
discount to its NAV of S$0.83 per Unit.
Gross revenue increased by 27.2% year-on-year to €30.1 million, while net property income
for 1H2022 rose by 26.4% to €24.4 million over the same period. The increase was mainly due
to the contribution from the acquisition of the French portfolio and Parc Cugat in 3Q2021. In addition, income available for distribution increased by 20.4% year-on-year to €18.2 million. This brought the distribution per Unit (“DPU”) for 1H2022 to 1.41 € cents.
IREIT Global 1H 2022.
Dear AK, with several negative developments happening in China (e.g. spiraling property crisis, run on rural some banks), and China being Singapore's largest trading partner, how much of a spillover effect on SG stocks do you foresee, especially on a couple of your largest holdings, OCBCand CLCT? Tha k you for your thoughts.
Hi KC,
I have read news and some opinion pieces on the Chinese situation.
The situation seems pretty dire.
I do not know how things will pan out but I do not think OCBC and CLCT will go kaput although their performance could be impacted.
China has more than enough financial firepower to do bailouts.
They just have to avoid policy mistakes.
As long as China is able to keep things afloat, then, the only risk I see that is more inevitable is the foreign exchange risk as the RMB weakens against the S$.
Of course, if China goes kaput, only those who are holding 100% cash or cash equivalents are safe.
Be glad we still have our CPF. ;p
Hi AK
Despite good performance in 1H, ireit’s price continues to be battered down. Could this be due to the appreciation of SGD against EUR, do you see this as a good opportunity to increase the exposure.
Hi Winnie,
The Euro is weaker against the S$ now than 6 months ago.
So, DPU in S$ terms is lower.
However, the ECB is increasing interest rate too in order to battle inflation but they are lagging the USA and Singapore in the battle.
The ECB increasing interest rate should slow the rate at which the Euro weakens and eventually should stop or reverse the weakness.
I already have a big investment in IREIT Global and, so, I will wait to see how things go.
If the unit price should go much lower from here, I would probably be buying more, everything else being equal.
Thanks AK for your thoughts. The dip 10% in price the past 6 months (from ~0.62 to 0.57) almost corresponds to the % depreciation of EUR. Guess like you say, this is part of the package when we invest in overseas portfolio with FX exposure. Its all part of the package and what is more important is the core business itself. Will continue to monitor :)
Hi Winnie,
Yes, it is a package deal and we have to take the good with the bad.
The more important question to ask is whether this weakness is going to be forever or if it is temporary?
I am inclined to believe that it is temporary and I am fine with being paid while I wait for the recovery to happen.
As an investor for income, there is still more to like about IREIT Global than not. :)
Dear AK Shifu, how to assess if REITs we planned to buy do not have problem mentioned in below news article. If it's too technical, hope you can explain in simplest way possible. Sorry to trouble.
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/opinion/be-alert-to-reits-using-leverage-and-paying-fees-in-units-to-prop-up-distribution-per-unit
Hi C,
Financial engineering is a fascinating subject.
Basically, REITs which are highly leveraged and pay their managers in units instead of cash are financially engineering their DPU to be higher.
So, just be on the lookout for these.
In an environment of rising interest rates, if we are highly leveraged, our financing cost will rise as well, sooner or later.
IREIT Global in their latest results decided to receive management fee 100% in cash which resulted in a lower DPU for investors which might seem like a bad thing at first glance but it really isn't.
Some blogs which might be interesting:
1. Eagle Hospitality Trust: Financial engineering.
2. Why VIVA Industrial Trust is not...
3. OUE Hospitality Trust: Case Study.
Gambatte! :D
But when it's units, manager couldn't by owning a stake and be aligned with unitholders' interest?
Hi Ok,
REIT managers usually own a very small percentage, if any, of the REITs they manage.
So, it really doesn't make a meaningful difference even if they were paid in units instead of cash and they would usually monetize those units at a later date anyway.
What is more interesting to me is when sponsors of REITs have relatively large stakes.
That tells me they have skin in the game and that if they hurt unitholders, they really hurt themselves too.
"The European Central Bank is clearly awake to the threat of inflation. Thursday’s unanimous 75-basis point hike to its benchmark deposit rate is the largest in the ECB’s 24-year history. The era of negative rates is now firmly in the rear-view mirror. The bank’s forward guidance is dramatic: If necessary, more hikes will follow over the next few meetings into early next year."
The ECB Hikes Big to Fight Inflation and Bets on Optimism.
Dear AK,
Euro should strengthen against SGD somewhat but higher interest could hit ireit further down the road. Energy prices have soared.
Ireit's price has dropped further since. Do you think this is considered blood on the streets for ireit already?
Appreciate your thoughts. Thank you.
Hi KC,
I have published my reply as a blog as that will reach more readers who are interested in the topic.
IREIT Global is a bargain: Short term pain.
thank you for sharing Ak!
Hi KC,
Just talking to myself, as usual. ;p
Gambatte! :D
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